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The last thing the speculators that run this economy want is an economy that is strong enough to create demand for workers that wages increase. They are operating to maximize their profits at the expense of the rest of us. Increasing wages by restricting immigration is NOT on their To Do list.
There doesn't always have to be a bubble.
Excess liquidity results in one of two things, an asset bubble or inflation.
No inflation to speak of and no asset bubble with the creation of a lot of liquidity. So QE I ,II & III and zero prime for 6 years doesn't represent excess liquidity. Liquidity trap, my call back in 2009.
How about the next recession will look like the last one only worse?
Asset inflation has been huge. Try to buy farm land or timber land. The vast amounts of currency in the system have to get spent on something, and rich people love to buy assets. The US is being divided into huge baronies controlled by a landed nobility.
Consumer inflation is trivial, because the excess liquidity never makes it to the vast mass of people.
You said it. Why things are the way they are is what matters. Pretty funny.
How did we get to all time record low credit card defaults? Why are they going up?
If you want to look at unbiased data then you need to look at things that aren't normally looked at to draw your conclusions from. The normal ones may be representing a noble lie. Most people will react to the noble lie some as if it weren't a lie. So the direction the economy will be going is in part a function of the lie and in part a function of the true macro economic picture.
Bubble? Without wages to support asset valuations those assets will tend to correct. POP.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell
Try to buy farm land or timber land. The vast amounts of currency in the system have to get spent on something, and rich people love to buy assets. The US is being divided into huge baronies controlled by a landed nobility.
Consumer inflation is trivial, because the excess liquidity never makes it to the vast mass of people.
Upping the minimum wage will take care of that. And making the world pay US minimum wage (or better) to their export workers.
Last edited by ContrarianEcon; 03-11-2016 at 01:56 PM..
The rich are rich because they value the accumulation of money.
Nope. The rich are rich because they add more value to society for which they justly deserve higher compensation, and because they incur more risk for which they also justly deserve higher compensation; usually the latter is in the form of deploying more risk capital, which justly also deserves higher compensation.
How did we get to all time record low credit card defaults? Why are they going up?
You tell me. If credit card defaults are a good measure of the economy then the economy is doing great, and we've experienced a hell of a recovery.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon
If you want to look at unbiased data then you need to look at things that aren't normally looked at to draw your conclusions from.
Okay, how often are credit card delinquencies looked at? Surely you must have some measure since your latest ridiculous theory about validity of data leans on it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon
The normal ones may be representing a noble lie. Most people will react to the noble lie some as if it weren't a lie. So the direction the economy will be going is in part a function of the lie and in part a function of the true macro economic picture.
In other words lots of hand waving, you have no idea what data is good other than if it fits your worldview it is a-okay.
Nope. The rich are rich because they add more value to society for which they justly deserve higher compensation, and because they incur more risk for which they also justly deserve higher compensation; usually the latter is in the form of deploying more risk capital, which justly also deserves higher compensation.
Nope back at you. The rich are rich because they are good at accumulating wealth. There is absolutely no requirement that the accumulation of wealth be in any way productive. A thief steals something that has an economic value of $100 sells it for $10 and has a profit for him of $10, but at the cost of the destruction of $90 of economic value because something that is stolen can't be resold.
Moving a job from my home town to some third world country that has a much lower labor cost doesn't add value to my life. IMO. It looks a lot like stealing my job to me. The problem I have with this is not that they got our jobs, it is that they didn't also get our pay. If they got our jobs and our pay then they could buy our products as well.
They "justly deserve higher compensation" for doing this? Not in my book. I say that if they want to move jobs over there then they should pay US minimum wage or higher. If they don't want to do that, then take their pay. Put a 110% tax on capital gains for any publically traded stock that the company employs anyone at less than US minimum wage, buys anything made by anyone at less than US minimum wage, or uses contract labor at less than US minimum wage, world wide.
We need inflation, true inflation brings with it full employment. We wont get strong upwards pressure on domestic wages, until wages worldwide equilibrate. Anything that can be done to push that process along faster will bring us strong economic growth sooner. Until wages equilibrate on a global scale then we wont have a meaningful economic recovery here or abroad.
If credit card defaults are a good measure of the economy then the economy is doing great, and we've experienced a hell of a recovery.
Simply you are wrong in stating that we've had one hell of a recovery. Doesn't look like one hell of a recovery to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang
Okay, how often are credit card delinquencies looked at? Surely you must have some measure since your latest ridiculous theory about validity of data leans on it.
This is fun. I enjoy this. They aren't looked at, at all. If there is a noble lie then the numbers that get looked at may be slanted in the desired direction. Those that don't get looked at wouldn't be slanted. So if you look at numbers that get looked at and compere them to ones that should correlate but don't get looked at and find correlation then the numbers may not be being cooked. If number should correlate and don't then there may be a noble lie.
The Baltic dry gets looked at because it is simple the cost of shipping.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang
In other words lots of hand waving, you have no idea what data is good other than if it fits your worldview it is a-okay.
I like it when you put wards in my mouth.
After the 2008 economic crises lending tightened up, people got scared and didn't borrow as much. When the economy started picking up credit card delinquencies started dropping. With a nice slow but stable expansion they kept falling, taking out the seasonal noise, for 23 quarters in a row. That is why we are at an all time low rate of credit card delinquencies. People haven't been overcharging as much and lending has been tight.
Why is the delinquency rate going up? Lending has loosened up a bit, people are overcharging again, and money is tighter.
You want me to have no idea what I'm talking about. But I do.
The last thing the speculators that run this economy want is an economy that is strong enough to create demand for workers that wages increase.
I'm just curious. Where do you buy your tin-foil hats?
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