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The distinction I'm making, which I believe to very important these days, is that many who amass great wealth do so by gaming the system and causing overall harm. Financial manipulators, crony capitalists, stock brokers, lawyers, etc. Or "investing" in these.
Except that there are a lot of people lumped in that category who perform the vital function of providing access to capital and liquidity. Without those, capitalism can't function properly. I don't have a successful career without those Venture Capital guys in Menlo Park or my local ones in Prospect Hill or Cambridge. I don't cash out without the investment bankers. My company runs out of money if it can't factor accounts receivable to create the cash to create more inventory to sell. Good luck building, buying, or selling a house without Wall Street selling mortgage-backed securities.
You mean such as being like Germany where per-capita GDP is $8K less? Or that social democratic utopia in Denmark that is $10K less? What the United States has is a good source of capital, liquidity, and very libertarian property rights laws guaranteed by the Constitution. The US Constitution mandates that the government mostly GTF out of the way of the achievers. That's what makes the US so economically successful. If you look at the countries that rank higher in per-capita GDP, you have mostly natural resource-based economies. The rest have incredibly small and homogeneous populations. Switzerland. Luxembourg. Singapore.
What skills do you have where you contribute your $100K to the GDP?
Nope.
You got me wrong.
We shouldn't have shipped our good paying manufacturing jobs.
And we shouldn't have shared so much of our technology with Europe, Japan, South Korea and China.
right , and how many american company's would likely have been gone because foreign competition priced them right in to the failed business graveyard .
ours may have been one of them , but instead we now employ 130 people right here .
in fact we could have still been driving the crap detroit used to pass off to us as quality cars .
Last edited by mathjak107; 03-28-2016 at 02:47 PM..
right , and how many american company's would likely have been gone because foreign competition priced them right in to the failed business graveyard .
ours may have been one of them , but instead we now employ 130 people right here .
in fact we could have still been driving thr crap detroit used to pass off to us as quality cars .
You are always managing to come up with wrong examples.
I'm looking at a lot of sources like IMF, World Bank, UN....etc.
And they all predict no recessions but very little growth.
GDPNow is suggesting 1.x% growth for this year now.
What do you think??
You can include your expectations about stocks, bonds, FX, real estate....etc as well.
2017-20: let's take a walk around the world in broad strokes:
China: Large stimulus focused on infrastructure to shore up weakening demand.
Europe: Desperately trying to salvage the European Project while managing popular discontent with its results. An acute risk of instability that could reverberate widely if a couple of shocks (like a Brexit) aren't met with adequate policy responses.
United States: Stimulus undercover largely via unfunded, temporary tax breaks
Developing world, writ large: increasingly popular zone for capital investment, as rapid development offers opportunities for large returns.
Bonds: I'd guess lower than usual returns on governments.
Real Estate: My guess is that Argentina has bottomed-out, and could be a leader in high-growth real estate. Also expect major gains in Vietnam, Peru, and Chile via TPP.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff
The US has been steadily declining on a median basis for a long time. In 1980 our middle class was unquestionably the envy of the world. Now we are surpassed by several "socialist" countries on income, and rank 27th in the world in median wealth.
Our most prosperous period (1930-1980) was when labor unions were strongest and income taxes the highest. Forced wealth and income redistribution, tailored to increase investment, wages, and productivity.
The US median income has stagnated for almost 40 years. But GDP growth has not. Our growth is going to enrich capital investors, not to labor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by J.Thomas
I think for me $50K GDP per capita is misery.
If we had done some things right we would be in $100K per capita range.
US median household income could not be sustainable at $100k right now. That would mean that $13.4T out of $16.77T GDP goes to household income. I do not think that capital investment would be sustainable if such a large portion of GDP went to labor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD
You mean such as being like Germany where per-capita GDP is $8K less? Or that social democratic utopia in Denmark that is $10K less? What the United States has is a good source of capital, liquidity, and very libertarian property rights laws guaranteed by the Constitution. The US Constitution mandates that the government mostly GTF out of the way of the achievers. That's what makes the US so economically successful. If you look at the countries that rank higher in per-capita GDP, you have mostly natural resource-based economies. The rest have incredibly small and homogeneous populations. Switzerland. Luxembourg. Singapore.
What skills do you have where you contribute your $100K to the GDP?
The Constitution is not remotely libertarian.
As to your comparisons, per capita GDP is useful for precisely what it is: a snapshot of the size of a country's economy compared to its population. Of course, it says nothing about the distribution of resources within that economy or among that population.
There are some sub $150K homes but horrible hoods and need major repair.
Your number is wrong.
My guess is median is like $250K-$270K.
And salaries are improving but nowhere near rise in real estate prices.
It's out of touch now.
But i don't know who's buyin'.
Maybe foreign investors but TX is not like CA.
Things are definitely interesting.
Also there is a shortage of starter homes.
Yupp.
This is a Sellers market and homes are selling for much higher than stated. The huge migration into DFW and also the currency scare/ low interest has got people more than willing to put cash into real estate.
Also, stated value and retail value are not the same thing. My home is at 186k on Zillow, would retail for 220K easy. Homes are in escrow in the same day as listed.
You are not getting into a nice SFH in a desirable area; from Uptown all the way up to Plano and Frisco for under 300k. Las Colinas or any other ‘fun’ area for under that, and there is no inventory in that price range anyways.
And for those who sneer at the prices, here's my observation:
CA property taxes are only 1.3% we are paying anywhere between 2.1-2.6% in Dallas counties. That is insanely expensive.
Also, Homeowners insurance is almost 3X as much here in TX as compared to my home in CA, because they have hail and hurricanes, regularly.We had hail last week.
They also have a slew of weirdo antics that go on with TX houses- termites and insects, foundation issues because of the soil- you have to water your foundation here....
CA has earthquakes, but the ground is solid. so what? You have to dust more often, but here the soil composition is causing the house to constantly shift and swell right underneath you, especially in droughts and floods- cracks appear on the walls, foundation movement. Upkeep here is going to cost you.
Workmanship is very shoddy . TX is not as stringent and or requires very little licensing, so there are tons of bad houses. Repair costs are astronomical if you buy the wrong property. Or an older home.
*they have this strange law that if you buy a home from a Trust, they don't have to legally disclose known issues, and 75% of the homes I went to see were under a Trust and had major issues. So prepare to fork over huge sums of cash for each property for research.
Beautiful homes, crappy workmanship and issues.
*This coming from a CA girl who just purchased this past year- this place is not as cheap as you think and what you are going to run into is no walk in the park.
Please take this into consideration when calculating the cost of buying and owning in TX
Yupp.
This is a Sellers market and homes are selling for much higher than stated. The huge migration into DFW and also the currency scare/ low interest has got people more than willing to put cash into real estate.
Also, stated value and retail value are not the same thing. My home is at 186k on Zillow, would retail for 220K easy. Homes are in escrow in the same day as listed.
You are not getting into a nice SFH in a desirable area; from Uptown all the way up to Plano and Frisco for under 300k. Las Colinas or any other ‘fun’ area for under that, and there is no inventory in that price range anyways.
And for those who sneer at the prices, here's my observation:
CA property taxes are only 1.3% we are paying anywhere between 2.1-2.6% in Dallas counties. That is insanely expensive.
Also, Homeowners insurance is almost 3X as much here in TX as compared to my home in CA, because they have hail and hurricanes, regularly.We had hail last week.
They also have a slew of weirdo antics that go on with TX houses- termites and insects, foundation issues because of the soil- you have to water your foundation here....
CA has earthquakes, but the ground is solid. so what? You have to dust more often, but here the soil composition is causing the house to constantly shift and swell right underneath you, especially in droughts and floods- cracks appear on the walls, foundation movement. Upkeep here is going to cost you.
Workmanship is very shoddy . TX is not as stringent and or requires very little licensing, so there are tons of bad houses. Repair costs are astronomical if you buy the wrong property. Or an older home.
*they have this strange law that if you buy a home from a Trust, they don't have to legally disclose known issues, and 75% of the homes I went to see were under a Trust and had major issues. So prepare to fork over huge sums of cash for each property for research.
Beautiful homes, crappy workmanship and issues.
*This coming from a CA girl who just purchased this past year- this place is not as cheap as you think and what you are going to run into is no walk in the park.
Please take this into consideration when calculating the cost of buying and owning in TX
Except that there are a lot of people lumped in that category who perform the vital function of providing access to capital and liquidity. Without those, capitalism can't function properly. I don't have a successful career without those Venture Capital guys in Menlo Park or my local ones in Prospect Hill or Cambridge. I don't cash out without the investment bankers. My company runs out of money if it can't factor accounts receivable to create the cash to create more inventory to sell. Good luck building, buying, or selling a house without Wall Street selling mortgage-backed securities.
I'm not lumping them in that category. Many aspects of finance are necessary, but it has grown to be an entity that consumes a far larger % of the economy than it is worth. Nearly every legal aspect of our society provides some necessary function. At issue are the activities focused on $$$ extraction, where the system is being gamed to make outsized profits.
It isn't that esoteric is it? If you want an efficient economy then you want the big rewards going to those who are focused on investing in innovation and productivity, since these are what improve living standards and wealth.
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