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Old 08-26-2016, 01:19 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,008 posts, read 7,153,712 times
Reputation: 17106

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Wage growth has yet to correlate with the low unemployment rates. We are at fairly historically low unemployment rates... I mean if it got much lower we'd be at WWII level employment rates which were sub <4% At that point you have labor "shortages."

The unemployment rates were at this ~5.0% level during the heyday 1990s and are lower than the housing boom years of 2005-07. We haven't had such a sustained period of 6-figure job gains per month since the 1990s.

It's really inexplicable what's going on. By all reasonable formulations, this kind of employment picture *should* feel like a boom.

My guess of why it doesn't feel that way because the recession was much worse than pretty much everyone in the media and government let on. It should have more accurately been called the "little Depression" rather than the Great Recession - it was more than just a bad recession... it was so bad that some of the best numbers in decades don't feel good because of it.

 
Old 08-26-2016, 03:56 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,667 posts, read 6,552,299 times
Reputation: 4817
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
My guess of why it doesn't feel that way because the recession was much worse than pretty much everyone in the media and government let on.
The GR was just the culmination of 40 years of policy designed to make the .01% very wealthy, at the expense of the middle class. That kind of wealth and income disparity severely undermines consumer capitalism. Globalization (deficit trade), debt escalation and bubbles, and the fortuitous "accident" of women entering the workforce, masked the negative consequences until 2008. After the house of cards collapsed, we are left to pick up the pieces.

If you have questions about this, please ask. It's one of those obvious things that never gets mentioned in the news.
 
Old 09-04-2016, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Berkeley Neighborhood, Denver, CO USA
17,676 posts, read 29,593,959 times
Reputation: 33222
Default Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again

Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again

Calculated Risk: Update: Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again

"The good news is the prime working age group has started to grow again, and is now growing at 0.5% per year - and this should boost economic activity. And it appears the prime working age group will exceed the previous peak later this year."

 
Old 09-07-2016, 09:17 AM
 
Location: Berkeley Neighborhood, Denver, CO USA
17,676 posts, read 29,593,959 times
Reputation: 33222
Default US Employment: Good People Hard To Find

US Employment: Good People Hard To Find - The Big Picture

US Employment: Good People Hard To Find

"there is mounting evidence that the problem isn’t a shortage of jobs, but rather a dearth of able-bodied and able-minded job seekers. Consider the following:
..."
 
Old 09-07-2016, 10:45 AM
 
Location: Florida
2,232 posts, read 2,102,711 times
Reputation: 1910
Quote:
Originally Posted by davebarnes View Post
US Employment: Good People Hard To Find - The Big Picture

US Employment: Good People Hard To Find

"there is mounting evidence that the problem isn’t a shortage of jobs, but rather a dearth of able-bodied and able-minded job seekers. Consider the following:
..."
Employers caused that. During the recession and even until today they put extreme qualifications on jobs that applicants cant reach. People have unemployment gaps because employers just weren't hiring for so many years and now that employers want to hire they are getting applicants with employment gaps. Employers did this to themselves.
 
Old 09-07-2016, 11:07 AM
 
7,898 posts, read 7,078,432 times
Reputation: 18586
Quote:
Originally Posted by Happiness-is-close View Post
Employers caused that. During the recession and even until today they put extreme qualifications on jobs that applicants cant reach. People have unemployment gaps because employers just weren't hiring for so many years and now that employers want to hire they are getting applicants with employment gaps. Employers did this to themselves.
That is one of the most creative excuses I have seen. It seems we all like to find someone to blame. Now we have employers who are scraping the bottom of the barrel to fill jobs. Employers are trying to fill positions when many of the applicants don't have the basic skills, never applied themselves and often have drug/alcohol abuse issues.


Unbelievable. Now somehow employers are responsible because they did not give these people jobs in the past. What about the idea of individual responsibility? If you want a good job or career, maybe pay attention and learn something in school, or apply yourself learning a trade. Survey after survey has demonstrated that whether it is high school or college, the average American "student" just drifts through all of those years of education without learning much. They have miserable math and technical knowledge, often barely read and write and lack analytical and reasoning skills.


Please explain again how employers caused this.
 
Old 09-07-2016, 11:08 AM
 
1,766 posts, read 1,211,715 times
Reputation: 2904
The Idle Army: America’s Unworking Men
Millions of young males have left the workforce and civic life. Full employment? The U.S. isn’t even close.

By Nicholas Eberstadt
Sept. 1, 2016 6:40 p.m. ET
Labor Day is an appropriate moment to reflect on a quiet catastrophe: the collapse, over two generations, of work for American men. During the past half-century, work rates for U.S. males spiraled relentlessly downward. America is now home to a vast army of jobless men who are no longer even looking for work—roughly seven million of them age 25 to 54, the traditional prime of working life.

This is arguably a crisis, but it is hardly ever discussed in the public square. Received wisdom holds that the U.S. is at or near “full employment.” Most readers have probably heard this, perhaps from the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, who said in a speech last week that “it is a remarkable, and perhaps underappreciated, achievement that the economy has returned to near-full employment in a relatively short time after the Great Recession.”

Near-full employment? In 2015 the work rate (the ratio of employment to population) for American males age 25 to 54 was 84.4%. That’s slightly lower than it had been in 1940, 86.4%, at the tail end of the Great Depression. Benchmarked against 1965, when American men were at genuine full employment, the “male jobs deficit” in 2015 would be nearly 10 million, even after taking into account an older population and more adults in college...........

The Idle Army: America

Quote:
One in six prime-age guys has no job; it's kind of worse than it was in the depression in 1940," says Nicholas Eberstadt
Low interest rates are the biggest scam ever sold to American Public. Time to wake up folks!!!!
 
Old 09-07-2016, 11:45 AM
 
Location: Florida
2,232 posts, read 2,102,711 times
Reputation: 1910
Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
That is one of the most creative excuses I have seen. It seems we all like to find someone to blame. Now we have employers who are scraping the bottom of the barrel to fill jobs. Employers are trying to fill positions when many of the applicants don't have the basic skills, never applied themselves and often have drug/alcohol abuse issues.


Unbelievable. Now somehow employers are responsible because they did not give these people jobs in the past. What about the idea of individual responsibility? If you want a good job or career, maybe pay attention and learn something in school, or apply yourself learning a trade. Survey after survey has demonstrated that whether it is high school or college, the average American "student" just drifts through all of those years of education without learning much. They have miserable math and technical knowledge, often barely read and write and lack analytical and reasoning skills.


Please explain again how employers caused this.
I see it everyday with my own job. My own team has been short staffed for over a year, we will be even more short staffed next year. Plenty of people more than capable of learning this job within one month have been interviewed and turned down because they aren't the "perfect match". I have seen every excuse. "They have the work experience, but no degree. They have the degree, but not enough experience. They have the experience, but their degree isn't really relevant. That person had a conflict a decade ago with so-and-so and I don't want to risk that coming to our team". I'm sick of it and I throw a fit every meeting about it so they stopped bringing it up. Ridiculous hiring practices for the past decade are responsible for this and absolutely nothing else.

The vast majority of jobs in this country, even professional ones, are not difficult and can be mostly grasped within a month or two of training. Employers don't want to train anymore for now so many years and everyone is shocked about the skills shortage. Shocker.
 
Old 09-07-2016, 11:54 AM
 
Location: Florida
2,232 posts, read 2,102,711 times
Reputation: 1910
Employers want applicants that can walk in and do any job. Guess what? NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!

So I actively search for other jobs today. I'm tired of our stressful work load and we have had an open position for over a year. Lets see how good they function with two empty chairs on the team.
 
Old 09-07-2016, 12:09 PM
 
7,898 posts, read 7,078,432 times
Reputation: 18586
Quote:
Originally Posted by Happiness-is-close View Post
......

The vast majority of jobs in this country, even professional ones, are not difficult and can be mostly grasped within a month or two of training. Employers don't want to train anymore for now so many years and everyone is shocked about the skills shortage. Shocker.


That is not true of any of the fields I worked in. Education was the starting point. OJT and experience only worked within narrow limits. Employers cannot make up for those who did not learn basic skills in school.


It sounds like your employer is just plain not serious about filling positions. I worked for a company that had numerous job classifications. For the most difficult to fill, there were standing orders to hire on the spot anyone with suitable qualifications. People were hired even if there was no immediate need or official openings. Even hiring an educated and experienced employee, we used to figure on negative productivity for the first 3 months. For the 3-6 month period the training efforts and the employee productivity were about even.


I worked in a professional field requiring college degrees. The same sort of issue arises with other jobs like the trades. Vocational schools and training can help but it can take many years of apprenticeship for an employee to develop skills in the trades. Even relatively simple jobs like driving a truck can take considerable time to master.


If your company can hire someone and get them up to speed in a month, I would consider looking at a different career.
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