Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
So the Republicans not only tend to create recessions, they do it very quickly? In actuality, your theory is rather strained. There were three recessions under Eisenhower (1953, 1957, 1960), two under Nixon (1969, 1973), one under Reagan (1981 -- which was huge), one under Bush-41 (1990), and two under Bush-43 (2001, 2007 -- the last of which was huge).
Almost all of those years occurred in post-election years as I stated.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pub-911
Really? The actual federal deficit for the most recent 12 months that have been published (Sep 2015 through Aug 2016) was $636 billion. There was meanwhile no unusual "one-time" borrowing in November 2015. In the last days of October 2015 however, obstructionist Republicans finally caved and agreed not to raise the public debt limit as they should have, but to simply suspend it until March 2017. At that point, already existing debt that had for months been kept out from under the debt limit via age-old "special measures" was put back into its usual and non-special place.
Those are funny numbers. I use the Treasury Direct site for the actual debt.
The debt jumped by 339 billion dollars on November 2, 2015, the first day following the debt limit agreement. By the end of November, the total public debt had increased by 675 billion dollars.
So one of the Fed chiefs spoke yesterday (sorry to interrupt historical fairy time) and is basically saying that the full economic capacity for growth is very low, hence interest rates may be very low for a long time as almost any tightening will push the country into recession.
That said, today's initial unemployment claims are at a 43 year low and the 83rd straight week they've been below 300,000. It should pave the way for an increase this year.
The Fed is split and with good reason. Growth around the world is anemic. GDP growth in the US is not all that robust but companies are hiring again.
In many ways, the US is still recovering. The amount of damage the Fed and government took on its balance sheet is only starting to be realized.
This is more normal. China is no longer on a massive infrastructure buildout as they were in 2001-2006. There is no generalized domestic residential construction boom this time. Housing starts are back to where they were in the 90's. If there's a boom, it's in apartments and commercial construction.
They've been quite successful by almost any economic measure, though less so than would have been the case had anti-recovery and TEA Party crackpot Republicans not taken over the House in 2011 and simply left the Fed to support the recovery on its own.
In just eight years, the nation was plunged by its most recent Republican administration from one of its historic economic peaks into the greatest economic collapse since the Great Depression. You don't bounce back quickly from such a major debacle as that, particularly when one hand (fiscal policy in this case) has been tied behind your back. Despite such resistance from the right however, there is a great chasm of difference between the outlook today and the outlook eight years ago.
I believe Obama's policies have held growth back. Obamacare and all. Productivity is at an all time low for a reason. Democrats like to blame Bush, so does Obama, but it's been 8 long years. It's long enough that they have to own the economy. Can't blame anyone. The FED policies of low rate has been keeping the economy humming, but they can only do so much.
I believe Obama's policies have held growth back. Obamacare and all. Productivity is at an all time low for a reason. Democrats like to blame Bush, so does Obama, but it's been 8 long years. It's long enough that they have to own the economy. Can't blame anyone. The FED policies of low rate has been keeping the economy humming, but they can only do so much.
Where do you see productivity at some 'all time low'?
Not that we are seeing gang busters anywhere, but GDP is up, employment improved, manufacturing back up. Our 'all time low' was about 7 years ago.
Almost all of those years occurred in post-election years as I stated.
I'm reminded of Steven Wright's suggestion that EVERYWHERE is within walking distance if you have enough time. The fact remains that every post-1950 US recession (except the shortest and mildest of them) has come under a Republican administration. If you wanted to measure GDP growth or stock market gains instead, those would favor Democrats as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lchoro
Those are funny numbers. I use the Treasury Direct site for the actual debt.
The 12-month deficit number of $636 billion was from the most recent issue of the Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays. Information concerning the late-October 2015 deals on the Public Debt limit was taken from Treasury's Monthly Public Debt Statement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lchoro
The debt jumped by 339 billion dollars on November 2, 2015, the first day following the debt limit agreement. By the end of November, the total public debt had increased by 675 billion dollars.
As I tried to explain to you earlier, these data do not reflect either current deficits or new debt. They reflect reversal of "special measures" that are routinely used to keep already existing debt out of the category "Debt subject to statutory limit". Once the debt limit was suspended, all this debt could be relisted where it always would have been except for legislative stalling on raising the debt ceiling.
A slow grind back up is what you get with a do nothing GOP.
Believing that tough economic times would ultimately work to their advantage at the polls, the GOP sold America down the river and opposed virtually every stimulus measure that the administration tried to take.
By the way, the pop-media assure us all that the stars are now properly aligned for US productivity to "take off"...
Believing that tough economic times would ultimately work to their advantage at the polls, the GOP sold America down the river and opposed virtually every stimulus measure that the administration tried to take.
By the way, the pop-media assure us all that the stars are now properly aligned for US productivity to "take off"...
Not that we are seeing gang busters anywhere, but GDP is up.
GDP is a FALSE INDICATOR since it does not measure actual economic growth per se, as much as it measures spending, assuming spending is growth and growth is good; but spending borrowed money may or may not be growth; and borrowing more money that one can service easily may not be good, although it is generally speaking good for bank profits. Spending borrowed money is only growth if it creates capital expansion, increases profits, on the money being borrowed. If borrowed money does not lead to increased profits, it is merely just throwing money into the Black Hole of Deflation. The Fed has been trowing trillions and trillions of our taxpayer dollars to stall, buy few years and blow up another asset bubbles. No real economic growth will ever be possible unless we allow Deflation to do it's job and destroy all bad debt that we are so desperately protecting since 2001.
GDP is a FALSE INDICATOR since it does not measure actual economic growth per se, as much as it measures spending, assuming spending is growth and growth is good; but spending borrowed money may or may not be growth; and borrowing more money that one can service easily may not be good, although it is generally speaking good for bank profits. Spending borrowed money is only growth if it creates capital expansion, increases profits, on the money being borrowed. If borrowed money does not lead to increased profits, it is merely just throwing money into the Black Hole of Deflation. The Fed has been trowing trillions and trillions of our taxpayer dollars to stall, buy few years and blow up another asset bubbles. No real economic growth will ever be possible unless we allow Deflation to do it's job and destroy all bad debt that we are so desperately protecting since 2001.
Consumerism is huge in any advanced economy. Housing huge. Money borrowed can create all the more.
Where do you see Fed using tax dollars?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
