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The unemployment rate masks the huge number of people who have dropped out of the workforce.
There are about 95 million such people. Only 5 million say they want a job, and not half of those have actually looked for a job recently. The other 90 miilion don't have a job and don't want one either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avondalist
Most of the jobs created since 2007 have been McJobs.
How do you define "McJobs?" Are sales and marketing jobs included? Software developnment? Jobs in such fields as health care and education?
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........... Most of the jobs created since 2007 have been McJobs.
Another person asked how do people become unemployable? One answer is that they fail to work hard during school and their career. Of course there are many of these people.
However there are others who are born without the ability to do any work because the most routine jobs have been automated....
So another answer to the question is that people become unemployable when they are born.
This is more nonsense than most people can cram into a single post. First most of the jobs created and available are not "McJobs". Unemployment rates for the BLS professional category (jobs typically requiring a 4 yr college degree) have been at 3% for quite a while. Lots of highly paid jobs are vacant due to lack of candidates. This includes high tech jobs but also relatively commonplace jobs such as a science or math teachers in secondary schools.
Sure there are some people with low intelligence or without mental or physical problems that limit their ability to succeed. The vast majority of the population is not in this category. A person of average or below average intelligence can learn skills, can get an education and can find ways to succeed. Most colleges even have programs for those with "learning disabilities" and other even more severe issues.
This is more nonsense than most people can cram into a single post. First most of the jobs created and available are not "McJobs". Unemployment rates for the BLS professional category (jobs typically requiring a 4 yr college degree) have been at 3% for quite a while. Lots of highly paid jobs are vacant due to lack of candidates. This includes high tech jobs but also relatively commonplace jobs such as a science or math teachers in secondary schools.
I found mixed data on the quality of new jobs. The McJobs claim was more accurate back in 2014 but jobs since then have paid a higher wage.
I think your head is in the sand if you think people can simply retrain to keep up with automation.
According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation.
The negative relationship mentioned is exactly what I described: low wage, low skill jobs are more likely to be automated.
I know there are more openings than applicants in many technical occupations. I went through school; I know the technical subjects - science, math, and engineering - are more difficult to master than the non-technical subjects. That's why there's a shortage of applicants in this field. I don't think this shortage is caused entirely by a lack of drive and work ethic ("grit" was the fashionable term a couple of years ago). Some people simply cannot master these subjects.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny
Sure there are some people with low intelligence or without mental or physical problems that limit their ability to succeed. The vast majority of the population is not in this category. A person of average or below average intelligence can learn skills, can get an education and can find ways to succeed. Most colleges even have programs for those with "learning disabilities" and other even more severe issues.
I disagree with the bolded statement. A minority of the population completes college. What is the non-college majority supposed to do as time passes and more jobs are automated? Even now automation is putting pressure on high-skill occupations like legal work, with automated document discovery programs outpacing attorneys. Physicians' diagnostic skills are being threatened with IBM's Watson, and will eventually be surpassed.
Even if a majority of the working age population is employable now (since they are employed) the pressures of automation will not relent and the employable fraction will drop over time.
A minority of the population completes college. What is the non-college majority supposed to do as time passes and more jobs are automated? ...........
That minority is rapidly increasing from the current level of about 1/3 of high schools students who go on to complete a 4 year degree. There is another rapidly growing number of young people who will get a 2 year degree or the equivalent specialized education. It will not be very long until the minority are those without bachelor or associate degrees.
Does that mean that there will be no jobs for those without degrees? Absolutely not. There is no automated equipment that will maintain and fix cars. Last two times I needed service, the wait was between one and two weeks. In my area plumbers, electricians, carpenters are in strong demand. They have all the work they can handle and make good, very good, money. More and more robotics and automated equipment means more and more need for skilled people to operate, fix and maintain that equipment. I have a friend who is clearly mentally challenged but makes tons of money installing and fixing residential A/C systems.
Now what about those who have no education and no skills? There will always be a lot of menial, service jobs. Let us hope most are just starter jobs or jobs people take when they are working themselves through college or training. In the modern world, people need education and skills to obtain good jobs and careers. There is nothing new about this. The world has had tradesmen and merchants and traders and similar occupations for centuries.
That minority is rapidly increasing from the current level of about 1/3 of high schools students who go on to complete a 4 year degree. There is another rapidly growing number of young people who will get a 2 year degree or the equivalent specialized education. It will not be very long until the minority are those without bachelor or associate degrees.
Does that mean that there will be no jobs for those without degrees? Absolutely not. There is no automated equipment that will maintain and fix cars. Last two times I needed service, the wait was between one and two weeks. In my area plumbers, electricians, carpenters are in strong demand. They have all the work they can handle and make good, very good, money. More and more robotics and automated equipment means more and more need for skilled people to operate, fix and maintain that equipment. I have a friend who is clearly mentally challenged but makes tons of money installing and fixing residential A/C systems.
Now what about those who have no education and no skills? There will always be a lot of menial, service jobs. Let us hope most are just starter jobs or jobs people take when they are working themselves through college or training. In the modern world, people need education and skills to obtain good jobs and careers. There is nothing new about this. The world has had tradesmen and merchants and traders and similar occupations for centuries.
More robots and automation does not necessarily mean that there will be more jobs in these fields you can have one or two people fix multiple machines until the machines get good enough to fix themselves. There will not be enough jobs fixing machines for everyone what is everyone else gonna do when automaton has taken their jobs? There will not be menial service jobs because machines can do it better.
More robots and automation does not necessarily mean that there will be more jobs in these fields you can have one or two people fix multiple machines until the machines get good enough to fix themselves. There will not be enough jobs fixing machines for everyone what is everyone else gonna do when automaton has taken their jobs? There will not be menial service jobs because machines can do it better.
Can you think of even one machine that is close to fixing itself? Not a car or an airplane or automated loom or lathe or some piece of sophisticated manufacturing equipment. I cannot even imagine how that would happen. Oh wait. I have it. Suppose a computerized welding robot got a crack and could weld itself. I guess that would count.
If you really believe your scenario, it must be really depressing to be you. Maybe you should call the automated funeral robot. It could bring a box, put you in it, hold a service, and bury you 6 feet under. Personally I will continue to do what I have always done. Use better and better tools to do more and more.
Can you think of even one machine that is close to fixing itself?
The biggest part of most repairs is diagnosing the malfunction. Cars are getting better every year in diagnosing their own malfunctions. They're getting cheaper to repair because less trial and error is needed. Trial and error involves installing parts that turn out not to be needed, but were just installed to see if that improved the symptoms. That used to be the biggest and most expensive part of car repairs. But it's being reduced drastically by modern technology, with cars diagnosing themselves more and more successfully.
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