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... Also, DOW 20K - so DOW was 11K in 1999. 17+ years for less than a double? What are people celebrating?
Let me do the math.
OK, so at the lowest rate of inflation I can find, the 11K would be 16.5K today. So the gain over and over inflation over that time period is about 1.2%.
If we disregard inflation the rate of interest (simple) was about 4%
Since most people and funds (pensions, etc.) have figured on a higher rate over a long time, there isn't much to celebrate unless we see DOW 30K within 18 months or so.
Agreed. I'm grateful for Dow-20K, given where it's recently been; but relative to the torrid pace of the 1980s and 1990s, and the market's position in the spring of 2000, thus far the 21st century has been pallid and desultory. Even more disturbing is that present valuations are not cheap; compare the present, to the previous long-term market nadir, of 1982.
In sum, the great disappointment of 21st century economics can be regarded as neither the grievous plight of workers, nor the exorbitant cost of health care, but - wait for it! - the decline growth-rate of corporate profits.
Why is this so? My belief, without too much exaggeration or hankering for a sweeping generalization, is that there's one root cause to all of our economic problems: stunted pace of innovation. We aren't innovating today, as well as we did 50 years ago, or 100 years ago. The consequence is attenuated growth, which can show up as lower purchasing-power for workers, or lower capital gains for investors, or lower tax-revenue for governments.
in fact looking at the golden butterfly i see it is down all of .38% .
unless you were buying a 100% stocks you didn't even get 1% . i show the 60/40 model i track as a point of reference consisting of vti and ftbfx down .54%
it usually shakes out you lost more than 1% on that money waiting to save 1% . i bet if you shifted earlier if the money was available you would be ahead .
it usually shakes out you lost more than 1% on that money waiting to save 1% . i bet if you shifted earlier if the money was available you would be ahead .
Maybe you are right but I sleep better. I was in ETFs so it was not sitting doing nothing. Still stick to my AA.
I don't think I ever buy at the absolutely low nor sell at the absolute high either.
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