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I heard a debate about this the other day on a satellite radio business channel. There was a related discussion on CNBC which focused on Amazon's role in job elimination and whether its business will eventually result in net job gains or losses? Any way you look at it the losses are real and the effects are moving their way up the skill and wage ladder. If the experts are right, how will countries around the world deal with the loss of 30% of the jobs that currently exist? What changes to education, economic policy, welfare and social services will be needed to accommodate this shift?
Many say we are in the beginning stages of a new technology revolution. How will balancing the needs of labor and capital must be addressed? Will our elected leaders be honest about these displacements and be proactive or will they hide behind misleading statistics and keep pushing it out to avoid scaring the general public and/or protect the interests of those who stand to gain financially from these changes?
These are critical issues which need to be addressed now. If the predictions are realistic, the consequences of inaction are dire. Countries and governments need to find solutions that avoid ending up with a massive group of unemployed workers and a world-wide depression.
This article seems very simplistic. Also it is limited in discussing only robotics. The article ignores computers which continue to change the very nature of non-manual work. The article also missed the third major change that is occurring: economies of scale. More and more manufacturing, retailing, agriculture, and ranching are being done on massive scales. Performing these processes in mega facilities has reduced labor. None of these three major changes is something that might occur in the future. All are occurring now and have already had huge effects over the past couple of decades or so.
I have no strong opinion as to the changes we will see in the workplace and I do not know if new jobs will be created as fast or faster than old jobs are eliminated. I think that is the case but even if so the impact of these changes is huge. Low skilled jobs are being replaced faster than high skilled jobs. We have been able to see that in the unemployment numbers for the past few years. Unemployment for college grads has been very low, but for lower skilled jobs unemployment has been high. I think that trend will continue. The future will not be kind to the fat, dumb, and lazy. Opportunities might be better than ever for those who have education, skills, and are willing to learn and change as society and the nature of work changes.
I am not sure what role we expect governments to take. Obama has been talking about improving access to higher education at least at the community college level. Unfortunately there seems little government can do to motivate people to learn and to make the efforts necessary to succeed in a more complex society.
those that are proactive will base a career around fixing , selling or designing that stuff. i know i planned mine around factory automation decades ago when obsolescence forced me out of my old career path.
those that are proactive will base a career around fixing , selling or designing that stuff. i know i planned mine around factory automation decades ago when obsolescence forced me out of my old career path.
I don't disagree with you. However, it is conceivable that there will not be nearly enough opportunities for many workers and too many people chasing the same fields will result in a downward pressure on wages in theses fields further exasperating the situation. If the predictions are true, what will become of the 30%? How will their needs be funded? A large, restless group of unemployed people with no resources does not make for a healthy or safe society.
I don't disagree with you. However, it is conceivable that there will not be nearly enough opportunities for many workers and too many people chasing the same fields will result in a downward pressure on wages in theses fields further exasperating the situation. If the predictions are true, what will become of the 30%? How will their needs be funded? A large, restless group of unemployed people with no resources does not make for a healthy or safe society.
There are not nearly enough opportunities today for the unskilled and uneducated while there are shortages in fields that require education and/or high levels of skills, and that's not going to improve. The problem is that here in the US especially, too many people refuse to accept that reality. This is less of a problem in countries that are not as fundamentally anti-intellectual, anti-science, and anti-education as the US.
For every displaced industrial worker who goes to the local CC to learn a new trade or get a degree in a new field, 4 or 5 at least keep chasing the ever shrinking supply of unskilled jobs, complaining about poor wages, no benefits, and lack of job security. You can excuse that in a 50-year-old perhaps, but not in a 23-year-old.
..... This is less of a problem in countries that are not as fundamentally anti-intellectual, anti-science, and anti-education as the US.........
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Unfortunately, I think you are correct. We talk down about eggheads and academic institutions. A scientist is almost by definition someone who is absent minded and has no common sense. Common sense is supposed to trump education and understanding. We are still fighting about evolution. We rewrite history so it is politically correct and does not offend anyone. Television and the remaining newspapers are geared for those with a grade school education. We have serious shows about finding bigfoot. A large chunk of the population believes in werewolves and vampires.
I don't disagree with you. However, it is conceivable that there will not be nearly enough opportunities for many workers and too many people chasing the same fields will result in a downward pressure on wages in theses fields further exasperating the situation. If the predictions are true, what will become of the 30%? How will their needs be funded? A large, restless group of unemployed people with no resources does not make for a healthy or safe society.
One possibility is warfare. It cuts unemployment, thins the herd and is good for the economy. I also think that some of our politicians see it as a possible solution.
Here in America shortly after the revolution there was a lot of discontent in the new America. Social pressures in the east were forcing people out beyond the Appalachians into the wilderness of Kentucky and the lands around the Great Lakes. Many wars were fought with the Indians as they pushed them out further west. This continued well into the 1800s into Texas and California. The immigrants were seeking opportunity and they found that by a migration to America.
The one problem we have now is there is a lot more people and there are no new frontiers to move to.
One possibility is warfare. It cuts unemployment, thins the herd and is good for the economy. I also think that some of our politicians see it as a possible solution.
Here in America shortly after the revolution there was a lot of discontent in the new America. Social pressures in the east were forcing people out beyond the Appalachians into the wilderness of Kentucky and the lands around the Great Lakes. Many wars were fought with the Indians as they pushed them out further west. This continued well into the 1800s into Texas and California. The immigrants were seeking opportunity and they found that by a migration to America.
The one problem we have now is there is a lot more people and there are no new frontiers to move to.
How are you going to solve this dilemma?
You thin the herd.
Are you advocating genocide as a justifiable solution to a manufactured economic problem?
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