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I think people are putting way too much into the new robotic trend. If anything, it just creates more jobs to take care of the robots.
100 years ago, 40% of American jobs were agricultural. Today it's 2%. Does anybody think that other 38% of the population, at the time, knew what a systems net engineer or an Uber driver were going to be?
We are going to be just fine. Tomorrow's jobs haven't even been invented yet.
I think the analogy of comparing farm implements from more than a century ago to AI and the technology that is emerging today is deeply flawed.
One big difference is 100 years ago it took people to build those farm implements. Now we can have robots to build the robots that will replace people and not too far along there will be AI computers to design those robots taking the need for humans out of most of the equation.
Its not going to happen overnight. Most reading this will not have their current occupation replaced by a robot or computer. But those growing up, high school age or younger it will be a significant challenge as far as picking a career that is not susceptible to automation.
Its not going to happen overnight. Most reading this will not have their current occupation replaced by a robot or computer. But those growing up, high school age or younger it will be a significant challenge as far as picking a career that is not susceptible to automation.
Those and draught animals have actually had a tough go already.
It only means that to people who have deliberately put blinders on.
It also means that to the dictionary.
Of course, as one of our great philosophers said:
"When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less."
I expect that you are mixing current politics, which is really just more politics, with the notion of normal cyclical change combined with potentially new systemic change. Mass human behavior is seeing nothing new, but the economic substrate is on it's way to stressing things in novel ways.
One big difference is 100 years ago it took people to build those farm implements. Now we can have robots to build the robots that will replace people and not too far along there will be AI computers to design those robots taking the need for humans out of most of the equation.
...also, just to hammer on this again, the other set of big changes will alter or destroy jobs which don't involve much (or no) manipulation of physical objects. If an AI can do a much better job of diagnosing illness than a GP, perhaps the only job remaining in a medical office is an assistant who does the trickier parts of actually handling the patient. Large law offices could easily lose most of their staff. Radiologists are on their way out. The problem of automated cars/trains/ships is mostly one in sensors and software, not manipulation.
It's interesting to think about what is replaced last. Aside from some gigs at the top requiring true excellence (and uninteresting from the point of the problem), it could be that some people will continue to get work merely as self-replicating, $10/hr, general purpose robots. There'll likely be some physical jobs where people will be cheaper for a while (garden care? fixing plumbing in old houses?).
A miner's canary I'm watching for is the replacement of the last human in our local garbage pickup. They've long ago changed to standardized waste containers that are picked up by remote control, the home owners have been trained to place the containers in a truck-accessible area, all that's needed is a straightforward (by the standards of robot cars) control system that drives around at 20 mph, picks up cans, and phones home in an emergency.
...also, just to hammer on this again, the other set of big changes will alter or destroy jobs which don't involve much (or no) manipulation of physical objects. If an AI can do a much better job of diagnosing illness than a GP, perhaps the only job remaining in a medical office is an assistant who does the trickier parts of actually handling the patient. Large law offices could easily lose most of their staff. Radiologists are on their way out. The problem of automated cars/trains/ships is mostly one in sensors and software, not manipulation.
It's interesting to think about what is replaced last. Aside from some gigs at the top requiring true excellence (and uninteresting from the point of the problem), it could be that some people will continue to get work merely as self-replicating, $10/hr, general purpose robots. There'll likely be some physical jobs where people will be cheaper for a while (garden care? fixing plumbing in old houses?).
A miner's canary I'm watching for is the replacement of the last human in our local garbage pickup. They've long ago changed to standardized waste containers that are picked up by remote control, the home owners have been trained to place the containers in a truck-accessible area, all that's needed is a straightforward (by the standards of robot cars) control system that drives around at 20 mph, picks up cans, and phones home in an emergency.
People are in denial like the OP. I have a friend who is a cab driver who really believes a self driving car will never replace cab drivers. Meanwhile Uber and Lyft are spending a fortune convinced self driving cars are the future. I think the question is not if Uber and Lyft are correct but how long until there are no more human cab or uber drivers.
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corerius
...also, just to hammer on this again, the other set of big changes will alter or destroy jobs which don't involve much (or no) manipulation of physical objects. If an AI can do a much better job of diagnosing illness than a GP, perhaps the only job remaining in a medical office is an assistant who does the trickier parts of actually handling the patient. Large law offices could easily lose most of their staff. Radiologists are on their way out. The problem of automated cars/trains/ships is mostly one in sensors and software, not manipulation.
It's interesting to think about what is replaced last. Aside from some gigs at the top requiring true excellence (and uninteresting from the point of the problem), it could be that some people will continue to get work merely as self-replicating, $10/hr, general purpose robots. There'll likely be some physical jobs where people will be cheaper for a while (garden care? fixing plumbing in old houses?).
A miner's canary I'm watching for is the replacement of the last human in our local garbage pickup. They've long ago changed to standardized waste containers that are picked up by remote control, the home owners have been trained to place the containers in a truck-accessible area, all that's needed is a straightforward (by the standards of robot cars) control system that drives around at 20 mph, picks up cans, and phones home in an emergency.
Good example. I remember when a human would lug a large container over his shoulder though our long driveway, all the way down the side of our house and empty our can into it, then all the way back to dump it manually into the truck. There were 2-3 others doing the same at other houses while the driver waited for them. We got to know our "garbage man" and gave them gifts at Christmas. Even now there are 1/3-1/2 as many people working those jobs due to automation of the trucks. Those are $28/hour (union) jobs here now.
Where have all the blacksmiths gone? Long time passing.
What about telegraphers? A long, long time ago.
Exactly. Auto workers are a dying breed as robots take over the factory. File clerks have almost vanished as files switch to electronic. Stenographers only exist in courtrooms, and only a few of those. Mostly they just replay the audio tape. Skilled workers like blacksmiths have long been replaced by punch presses, and only survive by servicing boutique horse owners. Anything that can't be mass produced is too expensive to be economically viable.
The world changed in 1949 when Norbert Weiner invented cybernetics. Once he laid the groundwork for control systems, the future was plain. Fifty years ago, the idea of a robot that could fill egg cartons was outrageous. Nowadays that's how they do it.
i only comment on what i know and see and i have to say , we have had bright people who can sell earn 200k in automation parts sales .
no degree no prior training , just coming through the ranks . there is so much opportunity in the industry and as anyone who works in it will tell you , starving for good employees who can rise through the ranks .
you can not imagine the pirating of people that goes on inter-industry to lure a competitors better people away . it so hard to get people to leave a company that we are forced to make our own higher level people .
that is what i do now that i retired . i teach one day a week at an automation gear wholesaler .
You need to widen your scope a little. The automation industry owes its success to cannibalizing the rest of the economy. It creates jobs by destroying even more jobs.
There were 2-3 others doing the same at other houses while the driver waited for them.
We got to know our "garbage man" and gave them gifts at Christmas.
Even now there are 1/3-1/2 as many people working those jobs due to automation of the trucks.
Those are $28/hour (union) jobs here now.
The ONLY problem in these examples is when those former no/low skilled job holders continue
(or continued) to produce replacements for those disappeared jobs. That they did produce so many
of what are now surplus to need ...is the core of most of the problems we now face.
We have a responsibility to the extant population...
but we don't have to stand by idly while they continue the pattern.
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