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But not faster than replacement workers surplus to a declining need are being created.
But that was with more limited number, perhaps even a smaller raw number, of humanity.
Far closer to the 1900 level of less than 2Billion vs the 6Billion+ we have allowed ourselves to expand to.
But when people are more prosperous & women are more educated, they don't have very many kids... typically under replacement level. The one truism of population trends is that births decline commensurately with the level of education the society's females get.
So if the robots take over we'll probably have a slow but gradual population decline.
People will keep talking about it and hoping you'll buy the story. A lot of people are looking for the great big idea to make money out of it. Fact is: We have too many poor people willing to do hard labor for dirt cheap, full automation ain't gonna make financial sense anytime soon.
I'm going to try to cover as many topics as I can without rambling and meandering all over the place:
I don't understand those of you who act like "full automation" is needed before our economy experiences drastic (mostly negative) changes. We FREAK OUT over a 10% unemployment rate today so imagine in a decade or two when the unemployment rate is routinely at 10-12% and high employment rates reach the 15-18% range easily. Tell me that is not detrimental to society. And it's extremely possible in the very near future, as I said in my earlier post in this thread just simple cashier jobs make up 6% of the nation's total workforce. With just a slight increase in technological development it will nearly overnight become cheaper to have ZERO cashiers at retail stores replaced with computers who scan items as they are plucked from the shelf. You cannot convince me that once that technology becomes affordable to large corporations that it won't spread like wildfire. That's 6% of the nation out of a job in the course of maybe 3 years after the process starts.
BUT to make matters worse our federal government has already modified the meaning of unemployed to not include those who haven't found a job in X number of months. What is to stop them from A) reducing X number of months or B) deeming those who have lost their jobs to automation not really 'unemployed' but rather 'displaced' or some other BS term. Thereby reducing the reported unemployment rate so that we are kept in the dark and unaware of how bad the situation really is.
Add in self driving cars that will become common place in urban and suburban areas before the 2020's are over and you're left with an employment rate that's sitting pretty at nearly 15% without a sluggish economy. God forbid we have another housing crises, we'd reach Great Depression levels.
Speaking of the housing crises though I haven't seen anyone mention the real estate sector or financial sector (but I may have missed it). But how long are bank tellers, financial advisors, real estate agents, lawyers who deal with real estate contracts, housing inspectors (I'm sure I'm missing others that deal with these types of things) going to be relevant??
ALGORITHIMS will easily replace financial advisors and real estate agents. They will compile data and let the customer know what the best course of action is to save their money or which houses fit their buying criteria. Computer systems will write fool proof contracts and other systems will check the contracts to make sure the other isn't "outsmarting it" thereby eliminating all human interaction. If the medical industry can create scanners for the human body, how long before inspectors use scanners to look at houses therefore reducing the time spent at each job site to a fraction of what it was. This is just one example, but how many other jobs will be 'helped' or made more 'productive' with technology which may not necessarily eliminate ALL humans from the job, but reduce their numbers to a minuscule amount.
I've seen many people argue the tech industry will create more jobs that we haven't invented yet, but I find that hard to believe. what else needs to be done to produce the technology? The idea is created, it is programmed and if it requires a physical body then it is produced. That process requires very few people to begin with, but soon computers will be creating better versions of themselves eliminating software developers altogether and manufacturing of parts is already highly automated and will become more so.
What about the music and art industry?? Do you think a computer can't be programed to compile all popular forms of music and art and begin creating art and music that is essentially guaranteed to be popular? It certainly can AND will be programed to do just that. Very few designers and producers will be left. And the ones that are will be the starving ones barely scraping by.
How long before voices are so well programed that human singers are irrelevant? Aren't there already robotic pop stars in Japan? How long before animation is so good that animated movies can no longer be differentiated from real people? It eliminates costly egotistical actors, but keeps the drama filled saga of the actor's life by conjuring up these crazy 'reality' tv show ideas for A COMPUTER, but people won't care... it'll still be the latest gossip.
It won't be that long before computers are writing our laws eliminating many of the lower skilled government jobs... don't think it's not coming. Once again, compile all past laws into a system and law 'makers' type in what category they're looking for and a couple basic ideas BOOM 100 page law is sitting on their desk in an hour. AND if the computer says it's good it should SURELY pass congress no questions asked, right? "We have to pass it to see what's in it" -Nancy Pelosi ... law makers already don't read the bills they pass, this will simply make it happen quicker.
The technology is coming whether we want it to or not. Corporations will not sacrifice profits and the government won't sacrifice power. As I said we are headed towards a society of elites that have everything handed to them on a 3D printed silver platter while the lower half is dependent on the government for a digital check... not physical because real money won't exist anymore. And they will be subject to constant turmoil, inflation, lack of resources... it won't be pretty, but right now there's no one stopping it.
Can anyone point to a person with power or well-known organization that is helping to plan for our technological future? And no, futurists don't count... they may tell us what will happen, but they aren't changing the outcome. I can't think of anyone who has brought up what to do with all of our idle out-of-work citizens yet and I don't see it happening in the future until it's too late. That means instability will be a given in our future, better prepare for it.
Yes, I know. Hence the "I cant find enough Engineers or Techs."
I run ads all the time in California and for the most part the people who apply are recently immigrated people from India, Iraq, Middle east in general or China with a smattering from sough of the border someplace. It is a real rarity that someone who actually grew up in the states applies. And these are good paying jobs. Just no one wants to do them.
Much more likely that born and raised Americans can't afford to get the education to perform these jobs here, while your immigrant applicants pay little or nothing of their own money for training in their home country. These costs are picked up by families, villages, and tribes who pool their money to educate and export their best and brightest to the USA who in turn finance and sponsor more members of their ethnic family to receive an education and come to the US. Rinse and repeat.
We offer competitive wages and a benefits package including health, 401(k), disability and life insurance, and long term care plans. For immediate consideration send your resume and cover letter with salary requirements.
There is your problem right there. Everyone knows that 'competitive wages' means that your company pays as little as possible, based upon what your competitors pay.
If they were TRULY competitive you would list the actual wages as an enticement to high quality candidates to apply.
Try offering superior wages for once and see how your positions magically become filled in a timely manner.
You have absolutely no Idea what it takes to design, build, deploy, commission and operate a robot.
The savings for the customer arent in personal costs. They are in higher productivity, less error and less lawsuits from unions and lawyers.
By definition higher productivity either means more goods or services produced by the same number of employees, or the same amount of goods and services produced by fewer employees.
Today most businesses have no need to increase production levels, so the reduction in number of employees is the logical step to take. Those are the reduction of personnel costs.
There is your problem right there. Everyone knows that 'competitive wages' means that your company pays as little as possible, based upon what your competitors pay.
If they were TRULY competitive you would list the actual wages as an enticement to high quality candidates to apply.
Try offering superior wages for once and see how your positions magically become filled in a timely manner.
nope , not everyone gets the same wage since a lot of your compensation is based on what you bring to the party in knowledge , experience and following if sales .
you can earn 200k in sales if you have a following .
only position with posted amounts are driver and warehouse . i think those are 13 or 14 an hour plus benefits.
we have lots of people applying and have hired loads . but we constantly need more . many that apply do not get through screening and others just lack the knowledge they claim they have .
But not faster than replacement workers surplus to a declining need are being created.
It all depends on what you see as "surplus." We're having a pretty good time moving production workers into the service occupations. My housekeeper charges $20/hour and she runs her own business, so her SE tax, advertising, insurance and vehicle costs have to come out of that. She's not making much more than minimum wage, and she's one of the motivated ones, who got off her butt and started her own business. There are jobs out there for anyone who is employable, they just don't pay much.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrRational
But that was with more limited number, perhaps even a smaller raw number, of humanity.
Far closer to the 1900 level of less than 2Billion vs the 6Billion+ we have allowed ourselves to expand to.
I think it's just simpler to block you. Go bother someone else.
So, unconditional surrender then. Could and probably should have come sooner. Trying to re-invent the word "populism" was never a good idea.
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