Is the Economy Getting Better? Survey Says... (2014, real estate, buy)

[SportyandMisty]

The Gallup poll results from their standard question, "do you think the economy is getting better?" Note this elicits people's opinions rather than analyzing hard economic data and indicators.

Here's some data for the past decade:



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[Ro2113]

Originally Posted by SportyandMisty

The Gallup poll results from their standard question, "do you think the economy is getting better?" Note this elicits people's opinions rather than analyzing hard economic data and indicators.

Here's some data for the past decade:

And this is why I feel that this is more of a political debate than an economic one. Hard core partisanship is a disease that must cured.

[Pub-911]

Perhaps an example of what happens when posing a complex question to simple people.

[rruff]

Originally Posted by SportyandMisty

The Gallup poll results from their standard question, "do you think the economy is getting better?"

An employee told me the other day that rich Texans will be spending more money here this year. Not because they have more money, but because Trump was elected and they "believe". Makes sense.

[cdelena]

Any story can be told with statistics and even greater yarns can be supported by polls.

[SportyandMisty]

Originally Posted by rruff

An employee told me the other day that rich Texans will be spending more money here this year. Not because they have more money, but because Trump was elected and they "believe". Makes sense.

Expectations do indeed influence economic behaviour. But there are counterexamples as well.

Residential real estate prices are skyrocketing in California as families wishing to buy engage in hand-to-hand combat to get their over-bids in first. California is of course a Blue state where Republicans are close to being on the endangered species list. Californians "believe" the world as know it may break out of orbit and crash into the Sun because of, well, Trump.

[hurricane harry]

http://www.thepoke.co.uk/wp-content/...lMIUAAxUt5.jpg

[JPrzybylski07]

Yup whatever confirmation bias you want to partake in........ No one knows. It's called the illusion of knowledge, people who were on TV giving expert advice before the last crash and were wrong are still on TV giving advice, because they can sell their "knowledge" in a confident manner. No one knows what the economy will do because it's too complex and has too many moving parts....

[JPrzybylski07]

The only intelligent thing one can do is connect the dots looking backwards... Just because there is a trend today doesn't mean there will be tomorrow, bull today can be bear tomorrow.

[Pub-911]

Large ships turn slowly, but the present presages the near-term future, and the clever can often discern incremental changes in direction. Particularly if they should be able to team up.