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no we haven't . your definition of things does not make things a recession . not all areas see things the same either . we are doing pretty well in our area economically .
i doubt folks today are worrying about their jobs unless they are in certain sectors only .
folks don't hit new highs in net worth in recessions either.
whether it is in the markets , their homes or real estate you have people everywhere hitting new highs almost daily . hardly the sign of a recession .
what you have is those who made poor career choices complaining for the most part .
working a cash register or putting things on the shelves in stores was never meant to be a permanent career .
But NJBoy3's point is the economies around the world are propped up to a degree they simply hasn't been in the past with massive money printing, low interest rates, and government spending. I think that's a valid point and it certainly doesn't bode well.
nothing ever bodes well . but somehow we all muddle through it and go on . there has never been a time in the 30 years i have been an investor we were not waiting for the other shoe to drop . i can count on one hand how many times it did .
there are lots of positives too around the world . but his claim that we are in a recession here is just false by definition .
Regardless of your opinion on the current political situation, things are starting to feel like its late 2006 or 2007. By most metrics, the economy is still humming along pretty well. However, there are warning signs such as an over-inflated stock market and the retail slowdown. In addition, the bond market is a serious sign of concern right now. It's possible we might get the perfect storm to cause the kind of recession pessimists thought 2008-09 would be (it was bad, but it wasn't quite that bad).
Regardless of the cause, we are overdue for at least a cyclical recession. What do you think? Do you think we will see recession in the next year?
Mumbo jumbo. It feels more like a logjam has been broken, to me. I feel optimism. I know facts are different than feelings, but I'm a glass half full person.
I agree here. At my local level, there has been hyper growth and an expanding economy even with the largest corp in the area doing layoffs throughout the year. I think they are laying off and re-hiring newer more technical people so the layoffs are a wash.
houses popping up like weeds. Businesses selling their parking lot space to build new store fronts. I have no idea how long this boom can continue but I don't recognize my area from 4 years ago.
96% of s&p 500 companies not only beat profits but more important beat revenue .
Actually, a better statement would be that Wall Street Analysts forecasting the earnings & revenue of the S&P 500 companies were wrong at least 96% of the time. It isn't about the corporate performance; it is about the ability of the analysts to do their job well.
Regardless of your opinion on the current political situation, things are starting to feel like its late 2006 or 2007. By most metrics, the economy is still humming along pretty well. However, there are warning signs such as an over-inflated stock market and the retail slowdown. In addition, the bond market is a serious sign of concern right now. It's possible we might get the perfect storm to cause the kind of recession pessimists thought 2008-09 would be (it was bad, but it wasn't quite that bad).
Regardless of the cause, we are overdue for at least a cyclical recession. What do you think? Do you think we will see recession in the next year?
I agree. But its going to take a little longer to get here. There is a bubble of optimism but in a year earliest, or two I think it will burst.
The housing market which is superheated in many areas right now (ask me how I know, I have the worst real estate timing!)
And corporations borrow money at manipulated low interest rates to buy back their stock. They buy back their stock so their is less available. Subsequently earnings per share goes up even if it doesn't. This ain't rocket science.
what is that allocation ? if it isn't 35-40% equities it can not safely support up to a 4% draw consistently enough so not sure what all the numbers represent ..
I thought he was talking long term investment strategy, not retirement income. There are equities and there are equities. Stocks and bonds are great, but real estate, emerging markets, P2P lending, offshore currencies and commodity futures also have a place in any high yield investment strategy. Some of them are high risk high return, so limiting exposure to a max of 10% of your net worth is a good idea, but the high return can be really high return. 10% in a defensive position might not earn much more than the inflation rate under normal circumstances, but can be hugely profitable in extremis. Gap lending easily outperforms bonds. Stocks perform well, but there are periods of 2 or 3 years when the only income from them will be dividends, if any. That's one of the places the defensive position shines. 10% there will give you 2.5 years of the 4% withdrawals without wrecking your equity position. Or you can buy 3 or 4 rentals when the real estate market tanks.
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