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For the people claiming 12-18 months, I just hope they're still active on City-Data so that we can hear their explanation on why they were wrong. No one is ever accountable enough to step up and just say, "I was wrong because of x". Instead they double down like a cult leader.
I hope I’m wrong because I’ll lose money in the market and my house. There’s nothing wrong with making an innocent prediction.
It’s only embarrassing when you predict over the top end of days crap like peter Schiff and get it wrong again and again.
I hope I’m wrong because I’ll lose money in the market and my house.
Stock market crashes don't normally coincide with recessions. The market typically crashes after the recession ends and recovery starts, as investors reallocate Capital to those sectors of the economy where expansion is likely to yield the highest profits.
Stock market crashes don't affect all stocks equally. If you lose money, then it's because you bought the wrong stocks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell
We have had screaming hyperinflation for years now.
There's been no hyper-Inflation. Since 2000, the rate of Inflation has averaged only 2.4% annually, which is the best in the world, even better than the UK and Switzerland.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell
Everything but consumer goods has doubled and tripled in price in a very short time. Real estate. Medical care. Stocks. Education. They just don't call it inflation, because they don't want to increase SS payments.
Real estate has not doubled or tripled. The median home price in Cincinnati is still $129,000 and it has only increased 6.3%.
Medical care has not doubled or tripled, either. The most recent data shows only a 4.3% increase in 2016. Prescription drugs decreased from 8.9% in 2015 to 1.3% in 2016. Both Medicare and Medicaid increased less than 4% in 2016. Hospital expenditures at 4.7% were 1% less than 2015 and private health insurance increased 5.1%.
While those figures are higher than the annual average Inflation rate, they're not indicative of hyper-Inflation.
The elderly do not buy real estate, and if they do, they are down-sizing to smaller less costly homes. They liquidate stocks for income instead of buying stocks, and they have no interest in higher education.
The average COLA increase since 2000 is 2.2% annually, which is only 0.2% less than the rate of Inflation, so it's not like the elderly are getting screwed.
For the people claiming 12-18 months, I just hope they're still active on City-Data so that we can hear their explanation on why they were wrong.
12-18 months is a reasonable educated guess.
In 3 days, this economic expansion will become the 2nd longest economic expansion in history at 107 months.
The three planned rate increases by the Federal Reserve this year could put the brakes on expansion, since the cost of expansion via borrowing will increase. If it doesn't halt expansion, it will certainly slow down expansion.
The current economic expansion would tie the longest in history in July of 2019 and set a new record in August 2019, which is within the 12-18 month time-frame.
While it's certainly within the realm of possibility for the economy to continue for another 12 months unabated after that, it's not within the realm of probability.
There could be political implications.
A recession in 2020 would almost certainly guarantee a Democrat becomes President.
Even though the economy had set a record, and recession is a natural function of the business-cycle, the Media would down-play that, even ignore it, as though it never happened and lay blame on the current Administration's policies for the recession.
Politically speaking, it might be preferable to have a recession sooner, rather than later.
There's been no hyper-Inflation. Since 2000, the rate of Inflation has averaged only 2.4% annually, which is the best in the world, even better than the UK and Switzerland.
I agree we haven't had hyperinflation, but the real inflation rate is higher than the official one, IMO.
I hope I’m wrong because I’ll lose money in the market and my house. There’s nothing wrong with making an innocent prediction.
It’s only embarrassing when you predict over the top end of days crap like peter Schiff and get it wrong again and again.
Why would you lose money in the market and your house? Do you not have a contingency fund? If not, now is the time to sell enough stocks to carry you through a downturn. The only people who lose money are those who are forced to sell at a loss.
Why would you lose money in the market and your house? Do you not have a contingency fund? If not, now is the time to sell enough stocks to carry you through a downturn. The only people who lose money are those who are forced to sell at a loss.
Just because I wouldn’t sell and lock in my losses doesn’t mean I wouldn’t feel the pain of it. And perhaps my words weren’t clear. I mean lose house value not outright lose my house like a foreclosure . If my house value dropped, it could hurt my ability to move to a different metro. All I’m saying is I think there will be a recession but I’m not sitting around hoping for it so I can say “I told you so”.
Also, I don’t own stocks that I can readily sell because they’re all 401k contributions and employer matches. In a really bad situation where I still had my job, I could do a 401k loan, before taking the tax hit of an outright withdrawal. Theoretically I have cash reserves and levers I could pull to drag along under financial stress for a looong time and I wouldn’t have to ever actually recognize those losses....but that assumes I have a job. I’m quite confident that I could find another job, but it may be hard if I had to relocate, and my house was underwater.
There's been no hyper-Inflation. Since 2000, the rate of Inflation has averaged only 2.4% annually, which is the best in the world, even better than the UK and Switzerland.
Real estate has not doubled or tripled. The median home price in Cincinnati is still $129,000 and it has only increased 6.3%.
Medical care has not doubled or tripled, either. The most recent data shows only a 4.3% increase in 2016. Prescription drugs decreased from 8.9% in 2015 to 1.3% in 2016. Both Medicare and Medicaid increased less than 4% in 2016. Hospital expenditures at 4.7% were 1% less than 2015 and private health insurance increased 5.1%.
While those figures are higher than the annual average Inflation rate, they're not indicative of hyper-Inflation.
The elderly do not buy real estate, and if they do, they are down-sizing to smaller less costly homes. They liquidate stocks for income instead of buying stocks, and they have no interest in higher education.
The average COLA increase since 2000 is 2.2% annually, which is only 0.2% less than the rate of Inflation, so it's not like the elderly are getting screwed.
Cincinnati is not a good example. The ongoing decay of Cincinnati has made national news. I'm surprised that real estate prices have gone up at all. In more desirable areas the picture is quite different. In Eugene, Oregon the *average* home price is now over $300,000, and Eugene is not known as a high dollar area. Rent has been going up at 5% a year, at a time when the feds were insisting there was no consumer inflation. Health insurance rates are projected to go up 50% this year. Nationwide, public in-state tuition has doubled since 2007, AFTER adjusting for CPI inflation.
Cincinnati is not a good example. The ongoing decay of Cincinnati has made national news. I'm surprised that real estate prices have gone up at all. In more desirable areas the picture is quite different. In Eugene, Oregon the *average* home price is now over $300,000, and Eugene is not known as a high dollar area
So an actual US city that does have people in it who earn/spend money as consumers isn't a good example because it doesn't fit your "US having hyperinflation" narrative, while you instead offer up a different location with unusually high real estate prices as a better example? That's just retarded dude.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell
Rent has been going up at 5% a year, at a time when the feds were insisting there was no consumer inflation
Actually they show the rent component of CPI in western region to be 4.7% from March 2017 -> March 2018, hardly the "no inflation" environment you are implying they published and actually pretty close to the 5% you've thrown out. https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/new...index_west.htm
We can also note it is entirely possible to have an inflation rate much lower than 5% because other components in the basket of goods had much lower increases, or even had decreases.
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