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I see the current U.S. housing market (as a whole) as being a bit crazy, and the old rules of affordability not applying so much due to several factors: The high retirement rate of Baby Boomers, The exodus of people from places like Illinois, and even California (which is inflating housing prices in other western states), The foreign dollars flowing into places like Seattle and Hawaii, and The general uncertainty that was created after the 2006 crash and recovery (in most places).
I would think that eventually, pricing has to go back to relying on economic fundamentals - the base being the average wage in a local market. An area with average ten dollar an hour wages cannot sustain a market of mostly $300,000 homes forever, there's got to be a correction once things get back to "normal". Do you really want to be sitting on a $400,000 mortgage in a place like St. George, UT, that has historically had mostly lower-paying service jobs, and the recent, rapid growth is likely to be eventually curtailed due to a lack of potable water? Once the frenzied growth is gone, what will keep prices propped up for the long term? Even historically desirable places like San Diego and the Bay Area are likely to be impacted by the social problems facing the state ("Come out to see my million dollar home, but be careful not to step in a pile of poop or drug needle, and pay no attention to the guy sleeping on the sidewalk - and try not to flush the commode, we're under a water ration). Not where I want to borrow a million bucks just to hang my hat.
You don't think $600K exists in the Atlanta area? You might want to educate yourself a little. I actually bought 2 houses at $600K . . . back in Ca.
California I can understand, and I know Atlanta does have its upper crust areas, but still...OTOH, I did forget about places like St. Simons and Sea Island. I imagine those are fairly pricey.
"One month ago we discussed why according to the recent data, the "Housing Market Headed For "Broadest Slowdown In Years." Fast forward to today, when we received the latest confirmation that the US housing market appears to have recently hit a downward inflection point: according to the just released July 2018 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released by ATTOM Data Solutions, foreclosure starts in July increased by 1% from a year ago — the first year-over-year increase following 36 consecutive months of decreases.
Foreclosures rose from a year ago in 96 of the 219 metropolitan statistical areas, or 44% of the markets analyzed in the report; 33 of those areas posted their third straight monthly increase. A total of 30,187 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process for the first time in July, up 1 percent from the previous month and while the increase was less than 1% from a year ago, it marked the first annual increase in exactly 3 years.
21 states posted a year-over-year increase in foreclosure starts in July, including Florida (up 35 percent); California (up 3 percent); Texas (up 7 percent); Illinois (up 7 percent); and Ohio (up 2 percent).
Metro areas posting year-over-year increases in foreclosure starts in July included Los Angeles, California (up 20 percent); Houston, Texas (up 76 percent); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (up 10 percent); Miami, Florida (up 29 percent); and San Francisco, California (up 10 percent)."
Holy Cow, take a look at Florida. Up 35% Miami alone is up 29%.
Location: Formerly Pleasanton Ca, now in Marietta Ga
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Originally Posted by kmarc
California I can understand, and I know Atlanta does have its upper crust areas, but still...OTOH, I did forget about places like St. Simons and Sea Island. I imagine those are fairly pricey.
Actually the homes in the north half of Atlanta and many of the suburbs north of Atlanta has quite a few homes $600k and north. Those tend to be luxury homes. But for many people $300k gets you a fine home to live in.
Over in the California forum I actually did a cost comparison and financial projections of buying a house in California versus Marietta Georgia. //www.city-data.com/forum/calif...o-have-11.html
"One month ago we discussed why according to the recent data, the "Housing Market Headed For "Broadest Slowdown In Years." Fast forward to today, when we received the latest confirmation that the US housing market appears to have recently hit a downward inflection point: according to the just released July 2018 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released by ATTOM Data Solutions, foreclosure starts in July increased by 1% from a year ago — the first year-over-year increase following 36 consecutive months of decreases.
Foreclosures rose from a year ago in 96 of the 219 metropolitan statistical areas, or 44% of the markets analyzed in the report; 33 of those areas posted their third straight monthly increase. A total of 30,187 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process for the first time in July, up 1 percent from the previous month and while the increase was less than 1% from a year ago, it marked the first annual increase in exactly 3 years.
21 states posted a year-over-year increase in foreclosure starts in July, including Florida (up 35 percent); California (up 3 percent); Texas (up 7 percent); Illinois (up 7 percent); and Ohio (up 2 percent).
Metro areas posting year-over-year increases in foreclosure starts in July included Los Angeles, California (up 20 percent); Houston, Texas (up 76 percent); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (up 10 percent); Miami, Florida (up 29 percent); and San Francisco, California (up 10 percent)."
Holy Cow, take a look at Florida. Up 35% Miami alone is up 29%.
Being that the foreclosure rate was rather low, a percentage increase may not be much. I'd like to see actual numbers like say 1000 increased to 5000.
If it was 10 and jumped to 11 in California it wouldn't mean much. I did well buying foreclosed homes and rehabbing them and then renting them out, but the number of foreclosures has really dropped and the few I see offered up for sale are selling for more than I used to pay.
Being that the foreclosure rate was rather low, a percentage increase may not be much. I'd like to see actual numbers like say 1000 increased to 5000.
If it was 10 and jumped to 11 in California it wouldn't mean much. I did well buying foreclosed homes and rehabbing them and then renting them out, but the number of foreclosures has really dropped and the few I see offered up for sale are selling for more than I used to pay.
You do have a point, but also remember these situations can start with a small slip that mushrooms into an avalanche. Of course, the opposite happens, too, and there's a recovery. This would be a period that doctors call "watchful waiting". See if it recovers or slips further and act accordingly. If I had a property I wanted to sell, and saw further slippage, I'd pull the trigger and sell as fast as I can, especially since the FED has more rate hikes planned (or so they say).
I hear you on that situation you had where the bears were telling you to wait, it'll go lower. What was it, 2011 or 2012? There were some deals to be had and those who sat on the sidelines lost out. But you can't time the market. I guess, if it looks like a good deal, grab it and don't wait. And don't regret it. Listen to your own voice and not that of others.
I apologize for the cheap shot about Georgia. Truth is, all I know about Georgia is Hartsfield Airport, travelling from Florida to Connecticut and back over the years, and a few days I spent in Buckhead on business. That's it. For me to say otherwise would be blowing it out my behind.
Lol, I think the main issue with this whole housing thing is FOMO, fear of missing out. People hesitate to buy, thinking it will go lower, and they're afraid of paying more than they might have if they had waited. Conversely, the same thing happens with selling. People wonder "what if I sell and the market goes higher and I could have gotten much more?"
During the first bubble, one guy I know sold his house at the top of the market, I think 2006. What followed was like five years or so of miserable renting (he had a family to take care of, plus one of his landlords during that time did not disclose that the house was in foreclosure, he just took the rent and didn't pay the mortgage, the other landlord was just neglectful and didn't make repairs) he decided to purchase again. Both he and his wife were still working, and they had money to put down that was saved from the sale of the home in 2006. They made the decision mainly for stability, but they got a good deal and there they are, to this day. Of course, now that he realizes he could, once again, get a sizable chunk of cash if he sold his current residence, he's very tempted. OTOH, he also understands the value of staying in a stable situation rather than going back to being a rental nomad.
One month of increases in foreclosures doesn’t mean anything yet. It cant stay low forever, just like prices it will cool off, go up some etc....
Same thing happened with mortgage rates. Goes up a tiny bit and people think 8% is happening next quarter, lol.
We aren’t anywhere close to calling a complete housing collapse yet.
That one bubble has caused housing ptsd in so many people. Lots of people are never going to buy no matter what prices do.
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Miami alone is up 29%.
