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Old 08-16-2018, 03:04 PM
 
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it took far longer for the effects of the qe's and fed policy to work it's way through the economy because 2008 was so bad . .

it took 8 years for the indicators to finally reach a point they typically are 3 years after a recession so most of what you see was put in place and working it's way through long before trump .
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Old 08-16-2018, 03:12 PM
 
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I have worked for Fortune 500s for the past 5 years. The fundamentals of our labor market are not good. There are MBAs that are both under/over-qualified and inept hiring managers and Sr. leadership wrecking departments.

During 08/09 the common phrase was "Wall street vs. Main street"

Many of you have a flawed perception that because stocks are UP, all is well. Meanwhile on Main street people are getting squeezed by higher interest rate debt, wage stagnation and in general the Millennial cohort is progressing about 10 years behind the prior generation in terms of household purchase, discretionary income as well as consumption habits at the same age. That translates to lower economic activity and soft markets.

All we need is for oil prices to keep rising to stop the gravy train. Because our fundamentals are not that good and where you would expect them to be. 2015 and 2016 grads are still underemployed working at Starbucks, Target, Walmart and Foot Locker despite the "Great Job Market".

There is merely a larger more extreme gap between the successful and unsuccessful people. Take 100,000 grads and only 10,000 will make above 100k. That doesn't work. Entry level wages should not be 35k in 2018. That is a 0% increase from 10 years ago. Meanwhile food, clothing and rent have all gone up by 2% annually.

Houston - We have a problem.

Expect GDP to slow to a crawl very soon if not in 2019 definitely by 2020...
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Old 08-16-2018, 03:15 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
it took far longer for the effects of the qe's and fed policy to work it's way through the economy because 2008 was so bad . .

it took 8 years for the indicators to finally reach a point they typically are 3 years after a recession so most of what you see was put in place and working it's way through long before trump .
It could have been reflected much sooner. But Employers instead of growing the business chose to hold onto cash and focus on dividend pay outs for the past 10 years. Now employers are not only missing out on uncaptured demand due to understaffing it creates a negative cycle where you lose lifetime consumers by not adequately satisfying the market.

Irrational employer behavior will cause the next down turn if the next Bubble doesn't pop before then.
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Old 08-16-2018, 03:17 PM
 
Location: Central PA
1,224 posts, read 1,509,570 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperhobbs View Post
In fairness, the economy was really starting to roll before took office so he can't take all the credit.
It was "rolling" primarily on the west coast and northeast. It's beginning to spread out.

To the OP: you want higher wages for crummy work, move to Seattle. Plenty of jobs there with better wages. Otherwise suck it up and aim for something better.
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Old 08-16-2018, 03:19 PM
DKM
 
Location: Thousand Oaks, CA
4,937 posts, read 1,740,000 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tencent View Post
I
All we need is for oil prices to keep rising to stop the gravy train. Because our fundamentals are not that good and where you would expect them to be. 2015 and 2016 grads are still underemployed working at Starbucks, Target, Walmart and Foot Locker despite the "Great Job Market".
Big difference from ten years ago: Our oil output has doubled since then and consumption is flat. We are a couple years away from being a net oil exporter. Add to that the US oil companies making higher profits from international projects... High oil prices could help the economy more than hurt it.

We are less than a year from hitting a $20 trillion mark in annual economic output. There are millions of people who would willingly risk their life just to live here. Stop whining and get back to work
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Old 08-16-2018, 03:21 PM
 
951 posts, read 332,512 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_In_NOVA View Post
Got any credible metrics to back up your propaganda?
Those are the facts. Not sure where you hang out, but it is not with the common folk. Most are service jobs with horrible benefits and low pay. Anyone that makes a decent wage, with decent benefits will eventually have their job magically eliminated.
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Old 08-16-2018, 03:26 PM
 
9,727 posts, read 2,790,275 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tencent View Post
It could have been reflected much sooner. But Employers instead of growing the business chose to hold onto cash and focus on dividend pay outs for the past 10 years. Now employers are not only missing out on uncaptured demand due to understaffing it creates a negative cycle where you lose lifetime consumers by not adequately satisfying the market.

Irrational employer behavior will cause the next down turn if the next Bubble doesn't pop before then.
Employers hoarding cash or paying shareholders is not irrational. You need to take an economics course. Employers were so steeped in regulations under Obama that they were merely protecting themselves from a situation in which they could not recover like Lehman Brothers.
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Old 08-16-2018, 03:33 PM
 
83,459 posts, read 80,960,339 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tencent View Post
It could have been reflected much sooner. But Employers instead of growing the business chose to hold onto cash and focus on dividend pay outs for the past 10 years. Now employers are not only missing out on uncaptured demand due to understaffing it creates a negative cycle where you lose lifetime consumers by not adequately satisfying the market.

Irrational employer behavior will cause the next down turn if the next Bubble doesn't pop before then.
technology made business much more efficient as well as the fact companies found they just did not need as many employees as they used to figure . companies ran fine mean and lean as employees were laid off and so they were just not needed anymore . the efficiency let them pay out this un-needed cash or they just sat on a lot of it for future expansion and product development .

i don't buy in to this dividend thing .
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Old 08-16-2018, 03:40 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
86,453 posts, read 79,586,754 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
those crummy jobs are only worth 10-12 an hour . markets value what jobs are worth .

the things others can't or won't do for themselves is always where the money is . crappy jobs and low skill jobs will always be low paying
Actually, that's not true. Union jobs payed decently. They catapulted a lot of people into the middle class, which helped grow the national economy, because it created more consumers, more people who could buy what industry (including and especially the auto industry) was producing.

Doing away with higher-paying jobs, or whittling away the pay of once-decent-paying jobs, or selling the high-paying jobs (tech) to foreigners who don't know any better but to accept the reduced pay and benefits they're offered, undermines the economy by undermining American workers' disposable income. It's a short-sighted strategy that undermines industry, in the end.
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Old 08-16-2018, 03:42 PM
 
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some union jobs tend to pay wages in excess of what markets value them at and in excess of what they should be valued at . . most unions here in nyc that do that are very very difficult to get in . as unions lost their grip ala the auto industry and manufacturing industry wages are lower .

the unions we have left which are the majority have the lower end jobs still at low wages .

Last edited by mathjak107; 08-16-2018 at 03:53 PM..
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