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Old 08-29-2018, 09:10 AM
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
6,917 posts, read 4,556,758 times
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Threre's certainly a boom in spin.
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Old 08-29-2018, 10:20 AM
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The ny fed sees 1.96%... the feds rarely agree with their forecasting and all tend to weight different parameters differently. The St. Louis fed will likely have something different too
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Old 08-29-2018, 11:02 AM
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SS is going up a bigger amt this year than usual - that means higher COL and inflation, of course.

Yes, for sure anyone who thinks we are in boom times is off their rocker. I have my investment records which reflect a diverse portfolio (thousands of companies and many indexes and bonds) for 30+ years.

Economics is a complex subject. But some others are easier to understand.....

1. Record Health Care Costs
2. Wages - gone nowhere in the last year (and relatively nowhere in 40 years!).
3. Life spans stable or actually decreasing among the middle and lower classes (whites) due to what might be called "hopelessness".
4. The vast majority of any "gains" going to those who don't need them (myself included)....
5. Record overdoses - high suicides - rage related gun violence.
6. Record deficits and debts with no reductions planned or even on the horizon

IMHO, these are "everyday" economic indicators that most people can get their heads around.

As far as the world falling apart....well, some always say it is, some say it isn't. But one thing is for certain. Depressions and Recessions either caused by or set in motion by an administration don't happen quickly. The Great Depression was years in the making and only happened at the end of the "good times" terms. the GWB Great Recession happened after many years of bad economic policy (including "booms").

When the "world falls apart" for YOU, then the prediction is true. More people are starting to file for bankruptcy due to medical costs and many more will do so as the current health care policies are put into place. Their world "ends".

Many other millions - or tens of millions - are "sentenced" to a lifetime of debt, including student debt. People are now being told they shouldn't retire until 70 - a cruel joke!

As bother a futurist and history (and many other things), I have long known that we COULD make things much better in this country. But I liked it to a married couple who live in hell because they fight, argue, spite each other, etc. - they both end up vastly worse off than they could.

We could have much more happiness "of the people". But we'd have to want to do it. As it stands it's not part the plan.
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Old 08-29-2018, 12:40 PM
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Again with any GDP # you need to look at the changes in inflation and the relative proportions to get the whole story.
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Old 08-30-2018, 11:36 AM
158 posts, read 73,619 times
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Originally Posted by okcthunder1945 View Post
....is labor participation important again? I can't keep up.
It should have been.
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