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I'm thinking the market will just kind of drift around these levels which would be fine by me. Dividend stocks and small caps do good in flat markets. If it doesn't move high too fast then it won't correct hard either. I'm thinking the markets are too rich here to justify the broad market go significantly higher but the economy is too good for anyone to want to take money off the table, thus flat, low volatility. It will probably be another boring year like this year where the media blasts trump whenever they can....
I dont believe it will be boring for me, as my number one holding will likely continue to grow agents and revenues aggressively, and likely become profitable, with the share price doubling at least.
Don't know about the rest of the US, but most foreclosures in the Southeast US were onset by sudden and widespread unemployment, not mismanaging funds while collecting a steady income stream.
I think we'll have continued economic expansion for at least the next 5 years.
The biggest impediment will be the ongoing labor shortage. For some time now, it has been hand-to-hand combat for employers to hire good employees; there just are not enough to go around. We desperately need an improved immigration system to bring the right kind of people into the USA - the skilled, the intelligent, and those with capital.
I'm referring to debt and credit markets going pop pop pop due to the looming bubbles. Specifically inordinate public and private debt level along with unrealized entitlement liabilities.
Worst of all it's the education debt + auto loans + mortgages + local/municipal debt + federal deficits.
Any industries that are propagated 100% by credit (e.g. Auto + College) will feel a sharp contraction. Will be interesting when you see highly levered college start to look at bankruptcy. Universities that can't feel enough classrooms and charge crazy tuition fees as their students cannot get loans to subsidize the fat budgets.
My question for you guys is if you watch the big short you see how people forecasting a recession in 2008 were able to profit off the sharp reduction in housing values. If one is predicting the same thing with auto and student loans how do we go about investing to profit off of the next contraction?
I'm referring to debt and credit markets going pop pop pop due to the looming bubbles. Specifically inordinate public and private debt level along with unrealized entitlement liabilities.
Worst of all it's the education debt + auto loans + mortgages + local/municipal debt + federal deficits.
Any industries that are propagated 100% by credit (e.g. Auto + College) will feel a sharp contraction. Will be interesting when you see highly levered college start to look at bankruptcy. Universities that can't feel enough classrooms and charge crazy tuition fees as their students cannot get loans to subsidize the fat budgets.
My question for you guys is if you watch the big short you see how people forecasting a recession in 2008 were able to profit off the sharp reduction in housing values. If one is predicting the same thing with auto and student loans how do we go about investing to profit off of the next contraction?
The thing about auto and student debt is that it is not nearly the size of housing, and for a chance of another crash, it would all have to tumble at once. How are the two even related? And all that debt in both sectors is spread way out and mostly to better informed lenders. So I think the risk there is low compared to housing and 2008. Sure we could and will hit a bump and again. But IMO not so severe as 2008.
I've seen the "OMG student loan bubble" thing floated about for the past few years, but doesn't it bursting need to be precipitated by other dire economic news? Unemployment rate is at historical lows, real wages are finally inching up, aren't these things that contribute to a tapering of any bubble bursting activities? I would think we'd need unemployment to spike first, and for that we'd probably need some sort of recession.
Agreed. It seems to just be a general drag on the economy at most.
Despite rising trade tensions with China, that seems to be a non-issue at the moment. I don't really see any major events next year. We'll just continue to bumble along with low to moderate economic growth. Europe may be a different story depending on how Brexit is handled.
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