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I don't think most of you are still aware that we are in UNCHARTED TERRITORY. We have never lived through a period like 2001-2019, with Central Banks all over the world essentially changing all the rules. None of you can look back to figure it out - because "borrowing" trillions from the future to spend today to delay deflation has never been tried before.
I think the ERA of FREE MONEY and the ERA of OPEN IMMIGRATION are finaly ending. UNWINDING all those FED trillions does WHAT to the economy? Well, it destroys dollars. Fewer dollars in circulation means a stronger dollar. Powell is taking his job seriously of unwinding Bernanke's big spendoff. How much unwinding does the FED have to do to get rid of the Bernanke bubble? Powell is doing what Bernanke did not have the guts to do.
Sometimes a "fix" isn't really a fix - sometimes it is a very large band-aid.
If we are in uncharted territory, how is it the you KNOW how things are going to play out?
BTW - I like that you called out Barney Frank above. He Chris Dodd, Maxine Waters and some others railed about, "redlining" and made all sorts of other claims in the early '00s about people in the bottom 1/3 or so of incomes being cheated by the banking system/mortgage lenders via, "tough" credit standards. They simply demanded that standards be lowered. Also recall Frank helped an ex-boyfriend get a job at Fannie-Mae.
I lived through the whole debacle, pi$$ing and moaning the whole time, against you know who and the insane idea that every American must own a home. The only thing that saved my sanity was that I expected to live in my house at the time for at least 10 more years, and recognized that housing values are cyclic but the long term trend has been up. (I lived there perhaps 10-12 more years and the market had long since recovered when I sold.)
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Originally Posted by Northern Maine Land Man
This is an enjoyable tread. About four of you are like third world individuals chanting their mantras beside their campfires.
I'm too new to this CD section to know the regulars (although I'm getting a few of yer numbers! ). Please tell me if I'm one of the four. I promise to not take offense, and I'll change my behavior if people think I'm acting stupid.
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Originally Posted by EDS_
FWIIW I hear the gloom and doomers, I reject what they say.
They're too much like doomsday dystopian novels/movies. If that really happened most of us would be dead, and dead men have no worries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_
IMO the most likely massive reset in US economics would be because of governmentally mandated actions to combat global warming. Some of the "plans" thrown out by experts would cause maybe a 25/30% decrease in US GDP. That would be utterly catastrophic........and being well away from population centers would be a very good thing.
As long as we don't get another Algore type as president I think we'll be okay. It's clear to me that DT is massively opposed to GW measures, and vastly supportive of businesses that would be harmed by GW regulations.
IMO our economy is secure as long as DT remains in office. I'm not making a political statement. I'm just looking at the performance of our economy and stock market since DT was elected. Anybody can spot the effect on the charts beginning the close of the election 2 years ago.
All I know is when my first mortgage was at 7++% I was still guaranteed an annual rise in my property value.
Really? Who gave you that guarantee, the local city government? Was it implemented in some manner where if you sold your house and the housing market had dropped they city would chip in to compensate you for the loss of value?
If we are in uncharted territory, how is it the you KNOW how things are going to play out?
Because I understand The Laws of Nature. We borrowed huge sums from the future to plug the normal holes in the ddike. 2001-PRESENT were supposed to be about LESS debt, lower prices, and recession. All that FIXING the FED did cost money - and all that FIXING is now being UNWOUND. In other words, the FED is admitting they made a mistake and should not have used the Bernanke Put to delay the deflation.
Powell is finally doing the right thing. Nothing for ever. No weak dollar for ever; and no strong dollar for ever. Everything in its correct time. Balance; and using both sides of the coin lead to eternal life, which is what we all really want. The Weak Dollar seeds the global economy; the Strong Dollar harvests the global economy. We need both. A strong currency is the basis of a strong civilization - so weakening it for short-term profits is shortsighted. There are seasons to follow: SPENDING SEASON (Business Cycle), low rates, 1983-2001. SAVING SEASON (Fallow Cycle), high rates, strong currency, 2001-PRESENT. Only the FED did not follow this. So instead of a New Life Cycle today we are still hungover with a debt bubble. The FED did not do their job since 2001-and that is why we are where we are today.
Trump wants the FED to be accommodative -- that is, lower rates for ever. Thank God this FED has a conscience. The Strong Dollar is the real FIX for too much debt.
Yes, we will all suffer from this. But the FED is finally doing the right thing.
Because I understand The Laws of Nature. We borrowed huge sums from the future to plug the normal holes in the ddike. 2001-PRESENT were supposed to be about LESS debt, lower prices, and recession. All that FIXING the FED did cost money - and all that FIXING is now being UNWOUND. In other words, the FED is admitting they made a mistake and should not have used the Bernanke Put to delay the deflation.
Powell is finally doing the right thing. Nothing for ever. No weak dollar for ever; and no strong dollar for ever. Everything in its correct time. Balance; and using both sides of the coin lead to eternal life, which is what we all really want. The Weak Dollar seeds the global economy; the Strong Dollar harvests the global economy. We need both. A strong currency is the basis of a strong civilization - so weakening it for short-term profits is shortsighted. There are seasons to follow: SPENDING SEASON (Business Cycle), low rates, 1983-2001. SAVING SEASON (Fallow Cycle), high rates, strong currency, 2001-PRESENT. Only the FED did not follow this. So instead of a New Life Cycle today we are still hungover with a debt bubble. The FED did not do their job since 2001-and that is why we are where we are today.
Trump wants the FED to be accommodative -- that is, lower rates for ever. Thank God this FED has a conscience. The Strong Dollar is the real FIX for too much debt.
Yes, we will all suffer from this. But the FED is finally doing the right thing.
You keep pointing to a weak dollar, but for example 2014 and 2015 saw surges in the strength of the dollar not seen in 40 years. It jumped like 14 percent in just the first few months of 15’.
And that was before Powell. I’m not sure why he’s some great savior.
Also I don’t think you know the laws of nature. We can’t prevent the seasons, or the tides...or the sun coming up. But according to you, the fed can hit the switch and deny...”nature” for nearly 20 years.
And you continue to point out 2001...there are many who put a lot of blame on Greenspan for not reigning in rates in the 90s when the economy was roaring. Why stop at 2001? That was basically the height of “irrational exuberance” when the markets were already considered to be in a huge bubble.
Really? Who gave you that guarantee, the local city government? Was it implemented in some manner where if you sold your house and the housing market had dropped they city would chip in to compensate you for the loss of value?
Sounds like a sweet deal!
This was historically true in the 70s and it continued for decades after....until the bubble burst.
he knows a guy, that knows a guy who knows a guy.....
:d
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). Please tell me if I'm one of the four. I promise to not take offense, and I'll change my behavior if people think I'm acting stupid.
