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Old 10-09-2018, 09:44 PM
 
31,940 posts, read 27,048,330 times
Reputation: 24839

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lovehound View Post
I understand and agree with all the posts since my most recent post. Some of us may have different ways of explaining it.

I doubt this will have any significant long term effect, and I doubt there will be a further increase in the prime until 2019 in which I see it is not only likely but probable, probably another 0.25% increase if the economy continues as it's going at present.

Fed's prime rate has little to do with mortgage lending. Treasury bonds, especially long dated are more of a concern. https://www.fxempire.com/news/articl...n-a-row-527246


Quite simply the fiscal crisis/great recession for USA and much of Europe is over; and markets are getting back to looking at fundamentals.


Right now the US economy is firing on all cylinders fueled by several factors. Then the GOP/DT "tax reform" juiced things even more.


Back during fiscal/credit crisis everyone was flocking to T-Bills for safety, so much so that the USA didn't have to offer great yields to attract money. That is no longer true as again markets are looking at the US economy as a whole, and there is much to watch.


For one thing under DT/GOP USA is set to have one of the highest (if not the) deficits in many years.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...est-since-2012

Just as with Reagan those GOP/DT tax cuts were not paid for with equal reductions in spending, so the nation is borrowing, borrowing, and borrowing.


Financial markets are looking at these events and seeing the USA has learned nothing and still refuses to get its fiscal house in order. So if they want to borrow, they're going to have to pay.


The various trade wars DT has begun with China and others isn't helping matters either.

 
Old 10-09-2018, 11:37 PM
 
Location: SoCal
14,530 posts, read 20,145,075 times
Reputation: 10539
It all depends on how the China negotiations turn out. If it resolves in favor of US then I'm sure the stock market is gonna be wagging it's tail!

This is a good reason to hold 'em instead of selling 'em, presuming you have faith in DT. I think he's gonna pull it off! He already sussed Mexico and Canada. And he gave EU what for!

It's kind of scary how much depends on this.
 
Old 10-10-2018, 08:24 AM
 
19,864 posts, read 18,133,562 times
Reputation: 17323
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lovehound View Post
It all depends on how the China negotiations turn out. If it resolves in favor of US then I'm sure the stock market is gonna be wagging it's tail!

This is a good reason to hold 'em instead of selling 'em, presuming you have faith in DT. I think he's gonna pull it off! He already sussed Mexico and Canada. And he gave EU what for!

It's kind of scary how much depends on this.
BTW - I like that you called out Barney Frank above. He Chris Dodd, Maxine Waters and some others railed about, "redlining" and made all sorts of other claims in the early '00s about people in the bottom 1/3 or so of incomes being cheated by the banking system/mortgage lenders via, "tough" credit standards. They simply demanded that standards be lowered. Also recall Frank helped an ex-boyfriend get a job at Fannie-Mae.

You can find videos of each doing so on youtube.

And yet literally no one in the press took these jokers to task.


Next time someone mentions Dodd-Frank and what a great set of law/rules it is just laugh at the irony.
 
Old 10-10-2018, 11:19 AM
 
Location: Northern Maine
10,428 posts, read 18,703,322 times
Reputation: 11563
This is an enjoyable tread. About four of you are like third world individuals chanting their mantras beside their campfires. None of the others can hear you. Despite what some spammer has posted up there beside my name, I am not a real estate agent. I am a real estate broker with 29 years experience.

I am observing something I have never seen before. Upper income people are buying small farms and rural homes at a rapid rate. They want 25 acres or more, a decent house, fields, woods and on a dead end road if possible. They explain this in various terms, but the common theme is that they expect an “adjustment”, not just in our economy, but in our society as a whole. These are not armchair gadflies. They are leaving life as they have known it. They are paying cash for these properties; no appraisals, no home inspections, no conditions.They are prepared to make whatever modifications that are necessary.

Financial magazines like Barrons and Business Week are beginning to notice this.
 
Old 10-10-2018, 11:24 AM
 
5,907 posts, read 4,440,392 times
Reputation: 13447
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Maine Land Man View Post
This is an enjoyable tread. About four of you are like third world individuals chanting their mantras beside their campfires. None of the others can hear you. Despite what some spammer has posted up there beside my name, I am not a real estate agent. I am a real estate broker with 29 years experience.

I am observing something I have never seen before. Upper income people are buying small farms and rural homes at a rapid rate. They want 25 acres or more, a decent house, fields, woods and on a dead end road if possible. They explain this in various terms, but the common theme is that they expect an “adjustment”, not just in our economy, but in our society as a whole. These are not armchair gadflies. They are leaving life as they have known it. They are paying cash for these properties; no appraisals, no home inspections, no conditions.They are prepared to make whatever modifications that are necessary.

Financial magazines like Barrons and Business Week are beginning to notice this.
And you have data to support this huge amount of purchases of 25+ acre properties?
 
Old 10-10-2018, 12:15 PM
 
19,864 posts, read 18,133,562 times
Reputation: 17323
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Maine Land Man View Post
This is an enjoyable tread. About four of you are like third world individuals chanting their mantras beside their campfires. None of the others can hear you. Despite what some spammer has posted up there beside my name, I am not a real estate agent. I am a real estate broker with 29 years experience.

I am observing something I have never seen before. Upper income people are buying small farms and rural homes at a rapid rate. They want 25 acres or more, a decent house, fields, woods and on a dead end road if possible. They explain this in various terms, but the common theme is that they expect an “adjustment”, not just in our economy, but in our society as a whole. These are not armchair gadflies. They are leaving life as they have known it. They are paying cash for these properties; no appraisals, no home inspections, no conditions.They are prepared to make whatever modifications that are necessary.

Financial magazines like Barrons and Business Week are beginning to notice this.
FWIIW I hear the gloom and doomers, I reject what they say.

Very rich people have been buying land like mad the last 10 or 15 years. Stan Kroenke bought the WT Waggoner Ranch in North Texas for something like $725,000,000. I have some oil patch buddies buying every ranch and farm they can. A lot of this is oil, gas, pipeline, hunting and water rights related a little is EOTWAWKI. It seems to follow that some of those of more normal means would look to buy land as well.


IMO the most likely massive reset in US economics would be because of governmentally mandated actions to combat global warming. Some of the "plans" thrown out by experts would cause maybe a 25/30% decrease in US GDP. That would be utterly catastrophic........and being well away from population centers would be a very good thing.
 
Old 10-10-2018, 12:21 PM
 
19,864 posts, read 18,133,562 times
Reputation: 17323
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
And you have data to support this huge amount of purchases of 25+ acre properties?
Some people just opt out. A buddy was a very successful FX trader in NY for a number of years. One day - the day he got his bonus for the previous year - he turn in a very long notice. When it was up he moved outside onto substantial acreage outside Virginia City MT and he is a happy camper.

He wasn't worried about some economic tumult he was tired.

It does happen.
 
Old 10-10-2018, 12:30 PM
 
334 posts, read 188,706 times
Reputation: 843
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Maine Land Man View Post
This is an enjoyable tread. About four of you are like third world individuals chanting their mantras beside their campfires. None of the others can hear you. Despite what some spammer has posted up there beside my name, I am not a real estate agent. I am a real estate broker with 29 years experience.

I am observing something I have never seen before. Upper income people are buying small farms and rural homes at a rapid rate. They want 25 acres or more, a decent house, fields, woods and on a dead end road if possible. They explain this in various terms, but the common theme is that they expect an “adjustment”, not just in our economy, but in our society as a whole. These are not armchair gadflies. They are leaving life as they have known it. They are paying cash for these properties; no appraisals, no home inspections, no conditions.They are prepared to make whatever modifications that are necessary.

Financial magazines like Barrons and Business Week are beginning to notice this.
Exactly...I wrote something a bit similar earlier about wealthy people (or at least well to do people) "prepping." These people see whats on the horizon but most of the populace don't want to see the "writing on the wall." A rural area is the place to be. These people are preparing for "survival." From what I understand, urban area will be the most dangerous. Thanks for your post...!
 
Old 10-10-2018, 12:31 PM
 
Location: Northern Maine
10,428 posts, read 18,703,322 times
Reputation: 11563
"Chant by your campfire. Nothing is real."

(This was directed to the gadflies, not the four posters immediate before my post.)
 
Old 10-10-2018, 12:31 PM
 
5,907 posts, read 4,440,392 times
Reputation: 13447
Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
Some people just opt out. A buddy was a very successful FX trader in NY for a number of years. One day - the day he got his bonus for the previous year - he turn in a very long notice. When it was up he moved outside onto substantial acreage outside Virginia City MT and he is a happy camper.

He wasn't worried about some economic tumult he was tired.

It does happen.
Of course it happens.

I was questioning the idea that it was happening at a “rapid rate”.
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