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This is the weird part of city data when I’m actually unsure if I read someone making a sarcastic joke (which is how I read it) or if you’re actually a serious person.
To the OP, of course a recession is coming. We’re closing in on the longest period without one. The fed is raising rates. It’s inevitable. Giving the year 2020 is a huge time period, and I’m sure polls of economists all think there will be one by then.
There is a recession about every ten years or so. There was an oil crisis in the early 1970s and another one around 1980. The early 1980s had another recession. Then there was a state of extreme "prosper" from the mid 1980s to late 1980s - the "Me" decade. But it crashed in 1991 and therer was another horrible recession. I graduated into that one and lived with my parents for awhile - lol. I remember I was out of work and just had a lot of time - I watched the Clarence Thomas hearings.
The 1990s came roaring back with many jobs and the dawn of the internet era - information technology. Programming languages like Visual Basic, c++, and Java 1.0 were generating many new jobs in computer science by 1999. But it crashed like that film "Office Space" in 2000 when the software engineer, Peter, was just doing construction labor in the ending. That reminds me of the Denver job market in 2001.
The economy began to prosper again - particularly in "housing" by the mid 2000s. But the Great Recession hit around 2009 and caused problems into 2011. The housing market crashed.
Now, the economy is "booming and prospering" and some politicans brag about it incessantly. However, I feel leery with all the "ups" and "downs" I have seen. There has to be another one coming - it always does. It's like pretending a hurricane will not hit the Florida Panhandle. It may not hit every year or even every five years. But within a 10-15 year period most likely one will hit hard horrendously. A recession is analogous to that. A java programmer in high demand in 2018 may be stuck competing for one job opening against 30 or 40 other java programmers in the year 2020 or 2022 if there is a recession. Hence - unemployment, debt, foreclosures, divorce, living with parents, etc. can arise again.
I learned my lesson. I always prepare for the next one. I have multiple master's degrees in diverse areas for health care and engineering. If one field crashes I can fall back on another one. I don't stop learning programming languages. In 1995 it was c++, in 1999 it was Visual Basic, in 2003 it was .Net, and by 2011 Java was all the rage. Now, Python and data science are booming. Older workers who ignore changes in technology tend to get laid off in a recession - like mid-level management. It's best to prepare early.
There is a recession about every ten years or so. There was an oil crisis in the early 1970s and another one around 1980. The early 1980s had another recession. Then there was a state of extreme "prosper" from the mid 1980s to late 1980s - the "Me" decade. But it crashed in 1991 and therer was another horrible recession. I graduated into that one and lived with my parents for awhile - lol. I remember I was out of work and just had a lot of time - I watched the Clarence Thomas hearings.
The 1990s came roaring back with many jobs and the dawn of the internet era - information technology. Programming languages like Visual Basic, c++, and Java 1.0 were generating many new jobs in computer science by 1999. But it crashed like that film "Office Space" in 2000 when the software engineer, Peter, was just doing construction labor in the ending. That reminds me of the Denver job market in 2001.
The economy began to prosper again - particularly in "housing" by the mid 2000s. But the Great Recession hit around 2009 and caused problems into 2011. The housing market crashed.
Now, the economy is "booming and prospering" and some politicans brag about it incessantly. However, I feel leery with all the "ups" and "downs" I have seen. There has to be another one coming - it always does. It's like pretending a hurricane will not hit the Florida Panhandle. It may not hit every year or even every five years. But within a 10-15 year period most likely one will hit hard horrendously. A recession is analogous to that. A java programmer in high demand in 2018 may be stuck competing for one job opening against 30 or 40 other java programmers in the year 2020 or 2022 if there is a recession. Hence - unemployment, debt, foreclosures, divorce, living with parents, etc. can arise again.
I learned my lesson. I always prepare for the next one. I have multiple master's degrees in diverse areas for health care and engineering. If one field crashes I can fall back on another one. I don't stop learning programming languages. In 1995 it was c++, in 1999 it was Visual Basic, in 2003 it was .Net, and by 2011 Java was all the rage. Now, Python and data science are booming. Older workers who ignore changes in technology tend to get laid off in a recession - like mid-level management. It's best to prepare early.
100% this. I also have seen the trends over the last 25+ years. I too agree it is on the horizon, I am seeing more signs this year of a recession around the corner. I think by next year this time.
Half a century after the Moon landing and scientists apparently can't mention planned obsolescence in cars but we are supposed to stop climate change. What a joke!
Headline that Trump is going to pull out of the Russian missile treaty
Which will mean a new arms race
Likely Putin wanted this because now he has no arbitrary boundaries on his missile production
Europe is going to be in tail spin...
Worth noting (and I may get bashed) but it may not be a textbook definition of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth but we'll see higher unemployment, under-employment, more defaults on the typical debts, higher interest rates, and using savings to live.
Housing very high in many places, bad health care system, financial markets very high for a long time, a job market with stagnant and declining wages.
Source: basic economic articles.
If you agree or disagree, please discuss.
I found this very interesting, because it has to do with building and growth, as well as Americans having jobs that they are Passionate about in the USA. This is what I have visions of a type of shift in the people to be more independent yet network more reach out to others more it is visions of shifting, more jobs in the USA. This is the reason for the tariffs I think to make America have to rely on itself. I think it is called capitalism. We can sure use it in site of all these Natural Disasters in California as well as Texas Florida North Carolina etc...
A summary of this 55 minute panel discussion; copied and pasted it from the link.
From July 2018 @ you tube channel: MilkenInstitute
"As monetary policies flip, real estate is demonstrating its appeal, steadily attracting capital, while other asset classes exhibit signs of investor anxiety. What are the prospects for returns in global property markets? How are these assets positioned to handle changes in inflation and interest rates? Will new trade tariffs modify investment strategies? What anomalies can be seen in the current real estate cycle?"
I really don't understand what Trump is doing. He said he will build America again and create jobs but helping business owners who are already wealthy ensure they have more business so it will create jobs or job security in America.
As far as I can see, I think he created more job loss in manufacturing.
I've also heard 2020 will hit recession, and I've heard it could start early next year.
Headline that Trump is going to pull out of the Russian missile treaty
Which will mean a new arms race
Likely Putin wanted this because now he has no arbitrary boundaries on his missile production
Europe is going to be in tail spin...
This is a wee bit overdramatic. Trump is pulling out of a treaty that is specific to a very narrow class of weapons, intermediate range nuclear weapons. It was meant to diffuse tensions in Europe where the superpowers could strike each other with little warning, and Russia was already violating it so it's hardly going to lead to a new arms race.
Putin's boundary on missile production is economics, their economy is smaller than several US States and many Western European powers but they are trying to punch above their weight geopolitically. Their military, which was gutted after collapse of Soviet Union, has again stalled due to economic challenges and they've had to cancel many high profile projects that were meant to advance them to a more modern era of military technology.
I'm not doubting it's accurate, I'm wondering whether it's purposely used as a cherry picked time frame to get a result. Saying real wages haven't gone anywhere in 40 might be true, but I'd be curious if they have gone anywhere in 50, 30, 25, 20, 10, etc. if so then 40 might have been chosen to mislead.
It's like when people were fond of saying stocks have gone nowhere in x years that was usually from the peak right before the dotcom crash. In a hypothetical scenario of someone dumping all their money in the stock market in 2001 yes they had no gains whatever decade+ years later. However it ignored the reality that results were quite different if comparing to a few years before or after that date. People tend to pick peaks and valleys to emphasize what they want to prove.
... and sure enough, 40 years ago was a peak in inflation adjusted weekly wages:
They have gone up since then, but if you happened to choose 35 years or 20 years they have gone up a lot more.
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