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Does that mean he’s about to cost his clients millions again?
He’s predicted 350 of the last 5 recessions, but the big one he “got right” in 2008 saw him picking the dollar to get crushed and the euro to soar. He predicted commodities soaring. His “call” probably felt a lot like getting ran over for his investor followers.
Could be. I'm just annoyed when people don't know the difference between simple words like "roll" and "role". If they're sloppy in writing, I tend to think their thinking is sloppy in other ways as well.
My writing can be sloppy.
Sometimes its a "fat finger ( its not that fat) issue", other times its "(damn you) autocorrect ". I can assure you with every darn system upgrade (damn you) autocorrect changes in ways i may not catch right away.
Other times I'm simply not paying attention to what has gone behind my thought I'm trying to get out.
Spell check is no genious either, it may not know you mean " roll" instead of "role", no matter how you intended it to come out.
Im trying to be better at catching the errors my phone helps me to make, but im not often successful.
Perhaps the OP is like me, OCD or not.
( i think I've caught all the errors in this post).....
There is no excuse or justification in forcing people to pay for services they don’t want or use. I have no kids and don’t want to pay for public schools. If I have kids I still may want to home school or send them to private schools. I don’t want to pay for some road 3000 miles away in Hawaii or 50 miles away that I never use. I don’t want to pay for the police who arrest people for voluntary and consensual decisions for their own bodies whether it is not wearing a seat belt or having pills.
You can't have your cake and eat it too, amigo. Similarly, I'm not going to pay for your kids' private education or provide some sort of exotic credit to you because you feel the need to homeschool, believe the earth is flat, we never landed on the moon, etc.
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Like you said regarding military spending, I don’t want to pay for a military that destabilizes and interferes in the Middle East.
We actually agree on something(!)
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I would however pay thousands a year directly to provide for border security and a wall.
Meh. I figured that was short lived.
Only a fool puts up a wall.
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The only good fiscal policy is to change government from being an institution of force to being a service provider which allows people to pay for what they want no different than people choosing to pay for housing, transportation or food that suits them. No one size fits all.
I get it. So your argument is, you don't like the game the group decided on playing so you whine and take the ball home so nobody else can play.
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Tax cuts are always good fiscal policy because it means people having more economic freedom to spend the money they earn as they see fit.
*Some* tax cuts are good. Other tax cuts are not good, especially the ones which don't end up helping the people as intended.
If every government program acted like “the bailout” we’d be in great shape. Take welfare and medical care for example. Allow people to get the help they need eating, having a roof over their heads and getting medical care. But require them to pay it back as a percentage of future earnings. That way people get the help they need but have an incentive to not take more than they need.
Yeah, let’s expect single moms in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas and elderly citizens to pay back welfare as a percentage of their (obviously, massive!) future incomes.
Bailing out the companies was a huge mistake. We should have let them fail.
In 2008, I was against the bailouts. I would have preferred letting them fail. 10 years later, I'm not sure what was better.
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Originally Posted by pvande55
We had a depression from 2008 to 2013, except few could call it anything stronger than a Great Recession. It was the worst in a lifetime. If not for safety net programs and some, though insufficient, stimulus; it could have been as bad as the one that began in 1929. I dont see anything as bad as 2008 the next downturn. Sure, millions will be put out of work, businesses will fail and real estate values will decline in many areas. But not more severe than most.
The late 2000s/early 2010s was terrible for me personally. I finished my MBA program just months before Lehman collapse. It was the worst year to be an MBA graduate in history. I noticed that starting in late 2007, it became next to impossible to get job interviews. Big companies usually recruit their MBA hires nearly a year out, and I think they knew something bad was going to happen in 2008 because they were stalling their interviewing in Fall 2007. One large CPG company that I did not interview with but interviewed a couple of my classmates enacted a hiring freeze in Spring 2008, probably around the time Bear Stearns crashed in March 2008.
2008-2013 were lean years for me from a career development standpoint. It has taken my career close to a decade to fully recover from the 2007-08 crash. I'm an early Millennial, and the Millennial generation as a whole (Pew definition birth years 1981-1996) was decimated by the recession. No generation took the brunt of the recession worse than the Millennials. The Millennials born from 1981-1989 graduated at some level into a terrible economy and have had their earnings curve impacted for decades, if not their rest of their working lives.
At this time, I am not ready for another massive recession, which is one of my biggest fears in life. During my formative years, I heard my grandma talk on and on about what it was like for her to grow up during the Great Depression. I don't think my 2008-2013 were as bad as the Great Depression, but it was pretty bad. I am emotionally wounded from the 2008-2013 recessionary years. The stock market action this month has been atrocious and I am very concerned about the onset of another recession when I have barely recovered from the last one. It is my hope that the current market action is a mild correction and does not have massive impact on the economy like 2008-2013.
The answer is you will never have another. The Great Depression was caused by structural unemployment due to the rapid implementation of technology and a change in manufacturing methods.
You will never experience that again in your life or any time over the next several centuries.
The Great Depression was exacerbated by what was then the largest tax increase in US history, plus a destructive import-export tariff, and the failure of the central bank to any action.
Although not impossible, it is highly unlikely Congress would ever raise taxes in a recessionary state, and the current tariffs are paltry and pale in comparison to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, and the Federal Reserve is both keen and quick to act.
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Originally Posted by Ron61
After over six decades on this orb I have seen my share of economic ups and downs and I now believe we are headed for a collapse of epic proportions.
Beliefs are not proof of anything.
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Originally Posted by pvande55
We had a depression from 2008 to 2013, except few could call it anything stronger than a Great Recession.
You did not have a depression, it was a recession, and it only lasted 18 months, not the 5 years you ridiculously claim.
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Originally Posted by slackercruster
The Great Depression came about cause they were on the gold standard.
No, it did not. The Gold Standard played no role.
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Originally Posted by slackercruster
The problem is with fossil fuels. As they run out they cannot pull them out of thin air.
You're not going to run out any time soon. The amount of oil, natural gas and coal in Central Asia is 5x-7x greater than that of the Middle East and North Africa, and the amount of oil, natural gas and coal in eastern Russia is 2x greater than that of Central Asia, or for those who aren't too bright, more than 10x-14x greater than the Middle East and North Africa.
You have not run out of fuels in the Middle East and North Africa, and won't until the end of this century, and the fuels in Central Asia will last you about six centuries at current consumption levels, but about 3-4 centuries at future predicated rates based on population, and then of course you'll have all the fuels in eastern Russia to last a couple of centuries after that.
The US consumes 25% of the oil, even though it's only 4.5% of the global population, and the majority of that is for transportation. By the end of this century, you won't have gasoline powered vehicles, so that will extend supplies for two centuries.
The US government has known that for some time, about 40 years actually, which is why your goal is gain control of Iran, so you can have air, rail and highway access from the Persian Gulf/Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean to Central Asia, where Chevron-Amoco (formerly UNOCAL, Chevron, British Petroleum and Amoco until Chevron bought Union Oil of California and Amoco bought British Petroleum) own 75% of the rights to all fossil fuels, metallic ores and non-metallic minerals in the five Central Asia States (France's Total and Russia's Gazprom own the rest).
And, once you control Central Asia, you'll be able to fund "pro-democracy" groups and smuggle weapons, ammunition and supplies into the eastern Russia republics to foment revolution and take control of that.
By bailing out do you mean loaning money, because that is exactly what the bailout was? Unlike with pretty much every government program where billions are handed out to people and never returned, these companies actually paid back what they were given and paid many billions in interest. If every government program acted like “the bailout” we’d be in great shape. Take welfare and medical care for example. Allow people to get the help they need eating, having a roof over their heads and getting medical care. But require them to pay it back as a percentage of future earnings. That way people get the help they need but have an incentive to not take more than they need.
I wish, wouldn't that be nice?!
If you're that worried about some coming financial collapse -- which really just happened and we recovered from it, so I don't know why you'd think we'd have another one so soon -- then your best bet is to diversify your assets and make sure that you're in good position for anything that might come. If you don't have much to your name, work hard and put aside money and try to build yourself into a better position for when that day does come. Stay healthy, stay in shape, stay active, and keep growing as a person. Sitting around worrying about everything really won't solve much. But being proactive to improve your position will.
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Originally Posted by RJ312
In 2008, I was against the bailouts. I would have preferred letting them fail. 10 years later, I'm not sure what was better.
The late 2000s/early 2010s was terrible for me personally. I finished my MBA program just months before Lehman collapse. It was the worst year to be an MBA graduate in history. I noticed that starting in late 2007, it became next to impossible to get job interviews. Big companies usually recruit their MBA hires nearly a year out, and I think they knew something bad was going to happen in 2008 because they were stalling their interviewing in Fall 2007. One large CPG company that I did not interview with but interviewed a couple of my classmates enacted a hiring freeze in Spring 2008, probably around the time Bear Stearns crashed in March 2008.
2008-2013 were lean years for me from a career development standpoint. It has taken my career close to a decade to fully recover from the 2007-08 crash. I'm an early Millennial, and the Millennial generation as a whole (Pew definition birth years 1981-1996) was decimated by the recession. No generation took the brunt of the recession worse than the Millennials. The Millennials born from 1981-1989 graduated at some level into a terrible economy and have had their earnings curve impacted for decades, if not their rest of their working lives.
At this time, I am not ready for another massive recession, which is one of my biggest fears in life. During my formative years, I heard my grandma talk on and on about what it was like for her to grow up during the Great Depression. I don't think my 2008-2013 were as bad as the Great Depression, but it was pretty bad. I am emotionally wounded from the 2008-2013 recessionary years. The stock market action this month has been atrocious and I am very concerned about the onset of another recession when I have barely recovered from the last one. It is my hope that the current market action is a mild correction and does not have massive impact on the economy like 2008-2013.
I can understand your perspective there, I was sitting much prettier and in good financial shape, feeling confident and well off, then the recession hit just when I started my business (2008) and we are a B2B company, so I had trouble making it work amidst tightened spending. Besides that, I watched my stock portfolio lose 60% of its value, my home plummeted from $500K to $350K, which is better than some people experienced, but still I had lot some of my equity in it and all of the "profit" had I sold it before the recession. Then reading all of the media articles, the fear-mongering, I sometimes had trouble sleeping just worrying about finances even though I'm sure I had it better than 90% of people because at least I still had money coming in from investments.
In the end, though, things recover. None of my larger investments were affected whatsoever by the recession and are worth more now than ever before, it's just some of them experienced temporary dips in cashflow and things looked bleak for a few years, but the diversification of assets helped make sure that when the bad times ended, there is now more opportunity than before.
Does that mean he’s about to cost his clients millions again?
He’s predicted 350 of the last 5 recessions, but the big one he “got right” in 2008 saw him picking the dollar to get crushed and the euro to soar. He predicted commodities soaring. His “call” probably felt a lot like getting ran over for his investor followers.
The answer is you will never have another. The Great Depression was caused by structural unemployment due to the rapid implementation of technology and a change in manufacturing methods.
You will never experience that again in your life or any time over the next several centuries.
The Great Depression was exacerbated by what was then the largest tax increase in US history, plus a destructive import-export tariff, and the failure of the central bank to any action.
Although not impossible, it is highly unlikely Congress would ever raise taxes in a recessionary state, and the current tariffs are paltry and pale in comparison to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, and the Federal Reserve is both keen and quick to act
The Global Economy is NOT a perpetual growth machine - it is cyclical, seasonal. Economic Growth is vertical orientation; Economic Rest is horizontal orientation. We have been faking economic growth since 2001 but economic growth can't be faked forever by piling on more debt, since debt makes it more difficult to achieve real economic growth. It is difficult for a global economy to grow its way out of astronomical debt. We all should have unloaded debt from 2001-PRESENT. We did not; we took on more debt, to preserve the illusion of growth, bought by more debt, and by stealing money from the future to spend today.
The economy is an old snake that needs to slough-off its old skin to be reborn in a new skin. The Strong Dollar helps the economy slough-off its old skin. The weak dollar is the old skin.
Can we grow our way out of the nascent deflation brought on by the strong dollar? Can global economy grow with a TITANIC DEBT BUBBLE on its back. Can it do that? Can it grow when the Dollar is strengthening and interest rates are rising? That is the Million Dollar Question Mircea. I say NO
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