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Old 04-05-2008, 11:56 AM
 
Location: Georgia, on the Florida line, right above Tallahassee
10,474 posts, read 14,389,433 times
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Wow. This person has an interesting take on things.

Oil....34 bucks a barrel? ...I think he's high....

The part about screwing them because they are being saved and you aren't...sort of got to me, though.
'Cuz that is how I see it, too. Hrmmm... Oh well, anyways...it's something to read!

How to survive the Great Depression of 2008 - 2009
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Old 04-05-2008, 12:59 PM
 
5,353 posts, read 10,240,533 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 70Ford View Post
Wow. This person has an interesting take on things.

Oil....34 bucks a barrel? ...I think he's high....

The part about screwing them because they are being saved and you aren't...sort of got to me, though.
'Cuz that is how I see it, too. Hrmmm... Oh well, anyways...it's something to read!

How to survive the Great Depression of 2008 - 2009
WOW! THAT is some disturbingly good advice on how to play that game.

Has me still chuckling just writing this.

Vicious, ruthless, and effective. Too funny.

Reminds me of the famous Scar Face quote of Tony Montana (Al Pacino)

"F me? F me? NO! F you!"

On the more serous side of the game -- As far as energy prices. It is due for a hard drop, but it is not like much anyone will be able to afford even cheaper energy when it does drop.

He is correct that the noose will tighten directly after the New Year. But it is not so much about making the D's look bad and the R's look good. It will be a bid to whip the dollar back to the top and strangle the speculators. Might recall the how the whip was cracked in the early 80's?

Have to keep in mind that prices and values are relative things. Once (y)our pay is cut -- if you are still even getting paid -- it will not matter the energy prices have went down in terms of dollars and the dollar goes back up, as the masses (us) will have slipped WAY down, and will still not be able to afford it.

But it will all serve the upper end that can go back and forth between currencies very well.
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Old 04-05-2008, 01:12 PM
 
34,990 posts, read 35,927,895 times
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"You are not your khakis"

We've been so indoctrinated that we are our credit and that we must consume no matter what, that the idea of chucking it all and going entirely to cash/debit/barter rocks many people's sense of self-value.

(what a terrible sentence! but you know what I mean.)

It forces you to consider, is it unpatriotic to drop out of my country's economic system? To not go down with the ship?
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Old 04-05-2008, 01:51 PM
 
Location: Boca Raton, FL
5,663 posts, read 9,276,674 times
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Smile OK, I read the article but...

I also read about Bob Hoffman and his background. He lives in the city just south of me. I do not like negativity but I do listen to all views and his are interesting. I feel bad he was not noticed in the 2002 local election. Not fair.

The media is always too negative. I have had to deal with negative things every day of my life and it can get to you. I am blind in one eye and have poor vision in the other so well, you see (no pun intended). I have tried to be thankful for small things but it is hard to read negative articles and feel good about the day.

Even if you bought at the top of the market, do you like the home you bought? The neighborhood? Etc? Well, fine - just continue paying for it. I mean, interest rates are low and you will look back in 10 years (I know, a long time) and be glad to have a roof over your head. Think of others - when I am around others, I think less about myself (a good thing) and more about others.

Responsible decisions. Get back to that. This is not a one size all fits country. If it works for you, great. Do it! If not or you have doubts, don't do it. We have all made good and bad decisions in our lives; these times are undoubtedly tough but you know what, this is a great country and we can see it through. Some of our most innovative ideas came during trying times.

I also have a credit background. I have seen too many regrets caused by poor decisions that last years and years to get over. If you have to file bankruptcy or let your credit go, be aware your credit will determine future interest rates (much higher), insurance (home and car) and job opportunities. Before you make a decision, be aware of all facts and make the one that is best for you and your situation.
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Old 04-05-2008, 04:07 PM
 
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
4,429 posts, read 5,895,288 times
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Default Ok

Quote:
Home prices will fall and keep falling, then stagnate for at least 4 years. Bargain hunting time (in about 2 years). Loans will suck as 7% will be the new ‘good fixed rate.’ But your total debt will be a few hundred thousand less if you buy during the stagnate period.
I pretty much agree with this statement. About 2 years and it will be a good time to buy.


Quote:
Gold, silver, and Oil will bankrupt many as it drops to the floor, bringing dumb investors to their knees. Oh yea, oil is gonna go to two hundred you say. Hey, it is your money, go ahead and gamble it like a moron. It will start dropping back down on its way to 34 bucks a barrel by year's end (it will eventually get to 34, not at years end, but heading towards it on its way down.) As for gold and silver, if you buy it now you are really stupid.
Actually I been listening to bloomberg radio and the like and I've been hearing the same thing. I not fully convinced that the prices will drop that low within a year though.
Unless I missed something I believe he didn't mention food. Now I've been noticing a bubble in food prices as of late. Well maybe not a bubble in food as a whole but definitely in Corn and wheat. I am wondering if the market will be overflowed with these to commodities in the next couple of years or so. But of course you can never count on the weather and that can change the outlook in a hurry.


As for his advice. Well in general I would say that it's good advice for most people out there that are just trying to hold there own. But if your a risktaker in about six months it going to be a good time (my guess anyway) to jump on some moderately risky ventures. I just say what every most people are running away from is the place to take your chances. Of course do your due diligence on the industry of business you decide to get involved with.

But hey that just my view. And I'm stick'in to it.
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Old 04-05-2008, 04:19 PM
 
947 posts, read 2,910,673 times
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Back when I was a loan processor in CA (early 1990's till late 2005), there was this one loan officer who used to push Option Arm loans - neg Am's exclusively and tell people to leverage there home to purchase additional properties using neg am loans. He was very evangelical when he spoke and did a lot of seminars for realtors and their buyers. Turned out he didn't even own a home, rented and has had prior bankruptcies. When I asked him about it he said that his and his wife are going to purchase 4 properties (this was in 2005) that year. People were buying his load of bull. Found out recently he's still in the same rental, selling insurance and acting like he knew about the housing bubble all along.

Do I feel sorry for the people who used him for a loan officer? Not to much, the heat in that room of getting rich quick was insane. Everybody standing around at intermission and talking about how much equity they have and how they could buy a non-owner occupied for little down.

I know the most important thing is to feed your family, keep a roof over your head and to have a car to get to work. However, Parts of the article do make me nauseous because I know some people were living it up leveraging, buying properties on neg ams. Now that times are tough just choosing not to pay up, not to take ownership over their lives. Sick.

I think people have forgotten that your credit can be tied to other aspects of your life not just purchasing a home or getting that HDTV at Best Buy. It can effect your chances for a job, insurance rates to name just a couple that I know of.

Last edited by Rose Red; 04-05-2008 at 04:23 PM.. Reason: took some stuff out. I was rambling
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Old 04-05-2008, 07:34 PM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 15,945,950 times
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great read.

One thing is though, he was not the first one to talk about the housing bubble. NPR had analyst on there talking about it as early as 2003/2004. I don't agree with him on Oil either. Yes part of the rise is speculation but the other part of it is, the crap doesn't regenerate itself. It is a exhaustable resource. As it runs out and demand increases, so does price. It is what it is on that one. Other wise I agree with everything else, I think he is right about people letting their homes go. I don't know how low the prices of a home will be though, you cant put a year price on it. It will be what ever the local economy can afford. If income is lower than 2001 then prices will be lower than 2001 and its higher then it will be higher.
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Old 04-06-2008, 11:13 AM
 
5,353 posts, read 10,240,533 times
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The oil price stuff can seem weird. It is the marginal demand (or marginal surplus) that drives the actual market price. They do not tend to really cover this in normal supply/demand sets the price part of basic economics class, but let me show what I mean.

Recent world demand has been around 88 million barrels a day, and supply has been around 86 million, but it is only that 2 million per day shortage that drives the upward price. Since the demand tends to be inelastic, it goes up until someone is out bid, such as drivers, truckers and now airlines are experiencing and being forced out of the market. The strange part is it is only that shortage that causes the now premium price.

Maybe think of it like having a 20 gallon gas tank with 19 gallons in it, and the car gets 20 mpg. If you have to go 400 miles you are going to be (only) 1 gallon short -- the math says you will only make it 380 miles, you will be 20 miles short. So what would you be willing to pay for one more gallon to avoid walking that last 20 miles? $10? $20?

On the other hand, if you had the same car and same trip and same 20 gallon tank and there were 21 gallons available – even at cheap price or free, with no real spare tank to put it in . . . what would you do with now surplus extra gallon? Would you try to take it and just pour in your trunk, or dump it on the ground? True surplus has little value, and the market value of true surplus is very little.

That is a caveat on the Peak Oil Theory – While the production and total supply is expected to drop from here on out (assuming peak production hit about 2005), the demand can run high (and cause large price spikes) or the demand can drop below that ever reducing production – either caused by severe recession, or conservation – and the price can have dramatic falls.

However, without regard to prices high or low, the Peak model indicates that will be less and less produced and available into the future and the smart move is away from oil, even if the prices were to fall a good amount. Tricky part is finding alternative methods that are genuinely cheaper than oil even at the possible low prices.
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Old 04-06-2008, 11:58 AM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 15,945,950 times
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Philip

great analysis, I agree. I think moving forward a lot of cities in the U.S. will not be as dependent on oil. I just found out my city (fort lauderdale) is rolling out a pretty decent mass transit system. If they are EXTREMELY aggressive they could probably cover the entire county with train by 2030 which seems to be a extremely significant date for all these cities in America (see the PlaNYC)
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Old 04-06-2008, 12:59 PM
 
5,353 posts, read 10,240,533 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
Philip

great analysis, I agree. I think moving forward a lot of cities in the U.S. will not be as dependent on oil. I just found out my city (fort lauderdale) is rolling out a pretty decent mass transit system. If they are EXTREMELY aggressive they could probably cover the entire county with train by 2030 which seems to be a extremely significant date for all these cities in America (see the PlaNYC)
Ft. Lauderdale. About a lifetime ago, I lived down there, too.

A LOT of fun. Mostly traveled by motorcycle in those days.

Was chatting recently about how the canals interlace with the roads through so much of the town, and that it seems like the canals could be an alternate fun way to get around. Maybe a kayak or bike boats, or something along those lines.

The foreign oil and the US choosing to stop that seems like a total no-brainer to me. Something like 60% of our use is imported now.

(and no, for the Drill US Now! folks -- All of ANWR would not make much more than a dime's difference at this point. Look up the real numbers)

If We The People had the sane, simple, sense to go off oil, it would a new Golden Age for America, as that is where so much of our money now goes.

Instead (for hopefully just a brief while longer) we have chosen to kill and steal, and go broke doing so. To me, this seems like a simple "our generation" review of an age old caution --

"I have set before you life and death, the blessing and the curse. So choose life in order that you may live, you and your descendants,"

Bottom line . . . . Oil = Death, for US and our kids.
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