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I'm a local resident. I know the patterns. Yes, there is a post-Christmas spending hangover. Restaurant crowds seem down across the area. Bars aren't doing business. People are hunkering down. It's not normal January sleepiness.
Most January's people are spending their income tax returns.
This is what I'm seeing on the street, despite rosy headlines.
What rosy headlines? The vibe I'm getting from the headlines is that the economy is losing steam, Fed is reassessing their plans for interest rates because of it, clearly the stock market has sputtered, and there is lots of speculation on how a worsening economy could impact reelection 2020.
Well, a worsening economy helps the party not in power. So that party will raise the rhetoric promoting public fear in hopes it slows down so they can "rescue you". ...If only you would vote for them. All they need is a compliant media that shows favoritism towards them to push articles that will only highlight deficiencies and none of the victories. Eventually after enough of it, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and everyone points and says "Seeeee! Told you the economy was getting worse!".
There is way more good news out there then bad right now, but you wouldn't know it. All they have to do is keep y'all focused on the bad, magnify it and manipulate.
Yes I realize how conspiratorial it sounds. ...And I hate it. But its become almost laughable how true it is in this millennium.
Well, a worsening economy helps the party not in power. So that party will raise the rhetoric promoting public fear in hopes it slows down so they can "rescue you". ...If only you would vote for them. All they need is a compliant media that shows favoritism towards them to push articles that will only highlight deficiencies and none of the victories. Eventually after enough of it, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and everyone points and says "Seeeee! Told you the economy was getting worse!".
There is way more good news out there then bad right now, but you wouldn't know it. All they have to do is keep y'all focused on the bad, magnify it and manipulate.
Yes I realize how conspiratorial it sounds. ...And I hate it. But its become almost laughable how true it is in this millennium.
I saw the last crash forming about a year and a half before it hit the news, just watching my own business books. It fanned out from places like Florida and Arizona that had overbuilt during the housing bubble. I have a year over year sampling from all over the country with several decades of records. I quit saying anything about it because I got called names and told that I was talking down the economy on behalf of the Democrats. For quite some time, I saw the business news become useless and clueless until everyone else finally learned what was going on. So I don't share my information.. I am too busy running my business and working around economic changes to argue with people who think I am conspiring and who are just going to call me names when I try to tell them what I am seeing.
Most January's people are spending their income tax returns.
Hardly anyone gets a refund until February. It's more of a Feb-May phenomenon, unless you're assuming they immediately load it onto a credit card or spend savings they plan to replace.
Here in the Pacific NW home existing sales have slowed, the local automobile market is still in the overstock bind it was in mid summer, dealers here are looking for huge empty lots to store the tons of last years trades, not to mention a need to store their huge stock of new units also. We noted a slowdown in the restaurant/nightlife scene locally, but it looks like the usual post holiday/pre-tax scenario for the most part.
The local area is still experiencing a huge boom in the building sector, I've never seen such rambunctious land development in the last fifty years. I'm hoping that can continue to bring a new level of prosperity to the region but can't help but wonder how all that new building is affected by the slowing in existing home sales. The highs of the post recession years may be slowing, but that doesn't automatically set the stage for another catastrophic credit collapse.
Of course all that buying (on credit) over the last few years could be loading up the balance sheet for many households and businesses, too much debt, business or individual, is often the harbinger of a recessionary sobering period. Housing costs for the younger America seems to be eating the lunch of a lot of other businesses, not much left after the mortgage is paid, and those new car payments don't add much to the local bar/restaurant tills either. Our economy, it seems, is continuously adjusting to the highs and lows of consumer spending, and the holiday season usually disrupts the norms of family financial planning, we'll have to see how things look at mid summer in order to form any conclusions.
Here in the Pacific NW home existing sales have slowed, the local automobile market is still in the overstock bind it was in mid summer, dealers here are looking for huge empty lots to store the tons of last years trades, not to mention a need to store their huge stock of new units also. We noted a slowdown in the restaurant/nightlife scene locally, but it looks like the usual post holiday/pre-tax scenario for the most part.
The local area is still experiencing a huge boom in the building sector, I've never seen such rambunctious land development in the last fifty years. I'm hoping that can continue to bring a new level of prosperity to the region but can't help but wonder how all that new building is affected by the slowing in existing home sales. The highs of the post recession years may be slowing, but that doesn't automatically set the stage for another catastrophic credit collapse.
Of course all that buying (on credit) over the last few years could be loading up the balance sheet for many households and businesses, too much debt, business or individual, is often the harbinger of a recessionary sobering period. Housing costs for the younger America seems to be eating the lunch of a lot of other businesses, not much left after the mortgage is paid, and those new car payments don't add much to the local bar/restaurant tills either. Our economy, it seems, is continuously adjusting to the highs and lows of consumer spending, and the holiday season usually disrupts the norms of family financial planning, we'll have to see how things look at mid summer in order to form any conclusions.
Bay Area flight and Bay Area money has done that. Seattle, Portland... but also Denver, Dallas...
Hardly anyone gets a refund until February. It's more of a Feb-May phenomenon, unless you're assuming they immediately load it onto a credit card or spend savings they plan to replace.
There's a HUGE sector of the population who do.
And they are the type of person who will be wasting their money in a bar on a Wednesday night.
Buddy of mine who has made many life choices I wouldn't ALWAYS gets his in january. (And with 4 kids it's huge. He then spends every dime.)
I have no idea if it's an advance (I know at least once it was, but I'm pretty sure it's not normally because he remarked on how it was "worth the cost" to him that year.)
And they are the type of person who will be wasting their money in a bar on a Wednesday night.
Buddy of mine who has made many life choices I wouldn't ALWAYS gets his in january. (And with 4 kids it's huge. He then spends every dime.)
I have no idea if it's an advance (I know at least once it was, but I'm pretty sure it's not normally because he remarked on how it was "worth the cost" to him that year.)
No, there really isn't a huge segment of the population that gets their tax refunds in January. All you have to do is look and see when tax returns are typically filed... then add a few weeks to that before one can expect to see a refund.
I'm not saying nobody gets a refund in January, but most are later in the year.
If you file on January 1st, it's beyond unlikely a refund will be received before about the 20th of January. Far more likely most are not received until February. Each day later into the month puts the refund a positive factor of days further out.
Quote:
And they are the type of person who will be wasting their money in a bar on a Wednesday night.
Ah. More of those unworthy Forty-Seveners and such.
Thanks for playing.
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