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Old 03-11-2019, 12:13 PM
 
5,414 posts, read 3,022,239 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RememberMee View Post
Just for the sake of education and as bs meter I keep a small 401k fidelity account from my previous employer. It is split 40/60 between a managed fund and S&P index fund. I stopped contributing in September 2017. As of March 7th 2019 I am still $300 short of September 2017 value. Remember these are the economic boom times I could not break even on my 401k. I wonder what will happen when a recession will knock on a door?
Either your managed funds are so badly managed that you should probably move those funds elsewhere, or you're telling a little bit of a tall tale. Even if you put all of that money into a single Vanguard generic ETF fund you would be up 10-15% right now based on the timeline you're claiming.
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Old 03-11-2019, 03:38 PM
 
75,754 posts, read 75,154,232 times
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Rule number one in a forum ...never let facts get in the way of a good story
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Old 03-12-2019, 10:38 AM
 
5,414 posts, read 3,022,239 times
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I just find it funny that people say things like that when the forum is literally full of people who make market investments everyday, and track performance over time obsessively. It's pretty easy to call BS on here (which is why I love this sub-forum).
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Old 03-12-2019, 02:10 PM
 
27,302 posts, read 34,214,128 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
rule number one in a forum ...never let facts get in the way of a good story
LOL. So often the case here.
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Old 03-12-2019, 03:47 PM
 
75,754 posts, read 75,154,232 times
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it reminds me of the 401keg plan back in the 2000's ..

when markets floundered you had those saying that if they simply bought beer with their 401k money and returned the cans for deposit they would be ahead of their 401k's ..

you don't hear that convoluted thinking anymore once stocks resumed their climb .
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Old 12-12-2019, 03:34 PM
 
5,445 posts, read 5,274,650 times
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Another data point. Services inflation is through the roof. The same furnace, the same part, the same residential hvac company. Costs of the repair - 2011 - $180, 2019 - $354. Show me stocks or better yet salaries growing like that. As it is the only way for an average person to delude himself into sense of financial security is to forever remain in the realm of colonial goods. It is hard to maintain delusions with service prices doubling like that.
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Old 12-12-2019, 03:48 PM
 
19,757 posts, read 14,379,026 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RememberMee View Post
Another data point. Services inflation is through the roof. The same furnace, the same part, the same residential hvac company. Costs of the repair - 2011 - $180, 2019 - $354. Show me stocks or better yet salaries growing like that. As it is the only way for an average person to delude himself into sense of financial security is to forever remain in the realm of colonial goods. It is hard to maintain delusions with service prices doubling like that.
SPY from 12/09/11-yesterday is up 193.15% with dividends reinvested

180.00 * 1.9315= 347.67

One incredibly narrow example doesn’t make a case

Aapl +453%
JPM +401%
Amzn +805%
Cost +340%
Msft +615%
Bac +549%

There’s others if you want more
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Old 12-12-2019, 03:49 PM
 
Location: Vienna, VA
414 posts, read 193,436 times
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Your personal numbers don't mean much. I bought a flame sensor for my furnace last month off ebay for $6, massive deflation out there?! 20 years ago I wouldn't even be able to buy the sensor as all the local shops do not let me purchase anything since I'm not licensed. I would have been stuck paying the HVAC cartel to change out the sensor for a lot more than $6. What service did they perform that you had to pay $354 for? And what tools are you using, I have not noticed any inflation in tool prices.

Last edited by 22003yo; 12-12-2019 at 04:01 PM..
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Old 12-14-2019, 10:26 AM
 
5,445 posts, read 5,274,650 times
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I don't understand why some people bring stock market into this. Are you bonafide leech class living off family trusts and such? A working stiff by definition lives off selling his butt to live a day. A working stiff cannot invest much and whatever crumbles he can invest is locked up in pension funds he cannot touch. And it is a big IF he will withdraw a meager windfall at a market peak. Absolute majority of wage earners live off cash flow their wage jobs generate. If prices grow faster than a paycheck something will have to be sacrificed. Most likely modest investment budget will be scaled down first.
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Old 12-14-2019, 10:40 AM
 
5,445 posts, read 5,274,650 times
Reputation: 6555
Quote:
Originally Posted by 22003yo View Post
Your personal numbers don't mean much. I bought a flame sensor for my furnace last month off ebay for $6, massive deflation out there?! 20 years ago I wouldn't even be able to buy the sensor as all the local shops do not let me purchase anything since I'm not licensed. I would have been stuck paying the HVAC cartel to change out the sensor for a lot more than $6. What service did they perform that you had to pay $354 for? And what tools are you using, I have not noticed any inflation in tool prices.
Service biz is absolute cut throat, it takes some serious luck not to be ripped off or cheated in a multitude of ways. DIY is the way to go whenever possible. But one spends most of his waking hours working/getting ready for/recovering after a wage job for DIY to be practical. When it is15F outside you suddenly realize that a furnace DIY project is not even an option.
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