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Old 04-20-2019, 04:42 PM
 
30,564 posts, read 20,795,310 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
It doesn't. But it's still pretty old news given that this thread is mostly about where automation and AI are going now, a good ten years past all that information. Think of it as a documentary about how some cars can be powered by batteries - wow, right?


Well, then they likely missed the point. The short-sighted mindset that jobs then will be like jobs now, just different is increasingly out of step with reality. The real surprise is that the next wave of automation - use whatever term you like - is going to drastically reduce the number of jobs. And not labor and assembly and warehouse jobs, or even cashier and receptionist jobs, but what have heretofore been classed as "good" jobs high-paying, white-collar careers long regarded as immune to being "automated."

The other part of the outdated view, that somehow all the displaced workers will find new careers, is pretty easy to demolish as well. Junior accountants are not going to become AI developers... and there won't be any need for them to do so. The smaller overall job pool will already be filled.

Just like (to bring this back to topic) the workers Walmart will be displacing are not going to become robot systems managers, developers or even maintainers. Not any meaningful fraction of them, anyway. So where do 100,000 WM floor staff go when the robots take over most of their functions? (Now apply that to accounting, actuaries, the lowest tier of software development, IT management...)
They said all of that and discussed BMI as well. Why don’t you actually watch it before you critique it? How can you critique it without first seeing it? To me you sound like you just want to be the smartest guy in the room.
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Old 04-20-2019, 04:54 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
8,717 posts, read 4,116,342 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ocnjgirl View Post
They said all of that and discussed BMI as well. Why don’t you actually watch it before you critique it? How can you critique it without first seeing it? To me you sound like you just want to be the smartest guy in the room.
Well... I work in one collateral field (analytical consumer economics), my closest colleague works in AI/Human studies and my next closet colleague works in the behavioral consequences of climate change (which includes things like job shifts and employment trends). I regret being ignorant of the contents of a TV show whose main point appears to be all the wonderful new jobs robotics is going to bring.
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Old 04-20-2019, 05:55 PM
 
23,579 posts, read 9,481,233 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Well, if you say so. My colleague whose field is the AI/human interface (in the largest sense) is pretty firmly convinced we'll see inroads to white collar jobs within five years, and it will accelerate from there.

Anyone who is aware of where AI implementation is at - right now - will concur, just maybe with a slightly different timeline. But the idea that it's so far off as to not be a problem - right now - is... wrong. "Mechanization" of the more rote desk jobs is already being implemented on small scales.
I can see A/R, A/P, CSR work gone by AI in this decade.

Ask your friend , though, how AI handles critical complex analysis, needed on an "ad hoc" basis, never having been done before in the manner needed immediately. Most white collar jobs left, are NOT rote tasks. Those have been automated. Paralegals seldom read volumes of old case work for lawyers-computers do that NOW. A/R, A/P, CSR tasks are all routinely done w/o humans NOW.

The leap AI has yet to show itself capable of is the random, need it now, critical analysis, where judgment is the critical skill required.

AI will get there, but I doubt before a few decades pass.

Its good at rote stuff now.
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Old 04-20-2019, 06:03 PM
 
30,564 posts, read 20,795,310 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
Well... I work in one collateral field (analytical consumer economics), my closest colleague works in AI/Human studies and my next closet colleague works in the behavioral consequences of climate change (which includes things like job shifts and employment trends). I regret being ignorant of the contents of a TV show whose main point appears to be all the wonderful new jobs robotics is going to bring.
That’s pretty much the opposite of what the show stated I don’t know where you got that from. Again it’s usually better to see a show before giving it s negative review.
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Old 04-20-2019, 06:06 PM
 
30,564 posts, read 20,795,310 times
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Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
I can see A/R, A/P, CSR work gone by AI in this decade.

Ask your friend , though, how AI handles critical complex analysis, needed on an "ad hoc" basis, never having been done before in the manner needed immediately. Most white collar jobs left, are NOT rote tasks. Those have been automated. Paralegals seldom read volumes of old case work for lawyers-computers do that NOW. A/R, A/P, CSR tasks are all routinely done w/o humans NOW.

The leap AI has yet to show itself capable of is the random, need it now, critical analysis, where judgment is the critical skill required.

AI will get there, but I doubt before a few decades pass.

Its good at rote stuff now.
We are not there yet with AI that can weigh, analyze and make choices and judgements but it’s all on the way. As I said, in 20, 25 years or less the AI we have now is going to be the equivalent to what the transistor radio or icebox is to us now. What we have now will seem archaic.
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Old 04-20-2019, 06:15 PM
 
3,976 posts, read 2,463,006 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
I can see A/R, A/P, CSR work gone by AI in this decade.

Ask your friend , though, how AI handles critical complex analysis, needed on an "ad hoc" basis, never having been done before in the manner needed immediately. Most white collar jobs left, are NOT rote tasks. Those have been automated. Paralegals seldom read volumes of old case work for lawyers-computers do that NOW. A/R, A/P, CSR tasks are all routinely done w/o humans NOW.

The leap AI has yet to show itself capable of is the random, need it now, critical analysis, where judgment is the critical skill required.

AI will get there, but I doubt before a few decades pass.

Its good at rote stuff now.
That’s exactly it. Where I’ve worked, our finance and legal teams are high end. I’d suspect every person I work with makes 100k or more. The routine work has already been automated, or as you pointed out offshored. These service centers do the routine work for us. The lower and middle tier jobs have already been eliminated.

I have sat in dozens of hours of CPE credits and big four consulting presentations for automation and machine learning. It can’t do our jobs.

Say that we have a cash need in country x. How is the ai going to go through all the tax and legal implications? How can it do acquisition or divesture scenarios? Say management wants the ETR to drop .5 percent. How is ai going to know how to do it in a structure crossing 200 countries? For the last few years, I’ve done nothing but interpret new laws. Create spread sheets to run tax scenarios where the answers aren’t even know yet by the IRS or our auditors. How can ai do this?

It seems to me that automation will be an augment that will make us even more valuable. Replace? I highly doubt it. The profession requires judgement and scenario planning.
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Old 04-20-2019, 07:06 PM
 
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I’m depressed now in my world of quietude where my degree will be wastpaper and the Midwest will be a vast desert.
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Old 04-21-2019, 06:39 AM
 
12,257 posts, read 14,209,027 times
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Originally Posted by double6's View Post
Bank of America just raised it's minimum wage to $20 an hour..Walmart will have to fall in line too, probably later than sooner..
This is going to bite them......The assistant manager that used to make $20 will think they need $30 and then the manager that made $40 will think they need $50.....it won't end
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Old 04-21-2019, 06:43 AM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
31,191 posts, read 68,415,751 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by City Guy997S View Post
This is going to bite them......
The assistant manager that used to make $20 will think they need $30
and then the manager that made $40 will think they need $50.....it won't end
They DO need it though... but reconciling THAT requires far more finesse than just adjusting wage rates.
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Old 04-21-2019, 10:17 AM
 
2,150 posts, read 796,748 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hulsker 1856 View Post
Uh-huh.

The centuries-long trend of mechanism in all its permutations continues. Yet you attribute this immediate snapshot in history as not part of that overarching of ... well, of the entire Western world from the Industrial Revolution onward, but a sudden reaction to current policies.

I wonder if you were one of those (woefully wrong) individuals who proclaimed that the rise in ATMs would decrease bank employment? That didn't happen. Or perhaps that increased use of surveillance cameras would result in fewer law enforcement jobs? That was completely wrong, too. The examples are endless.

In reality, it doesn't look like Walmart is doing this in reaction to what aggrieves you politically. They're just doing what industry has been doing for hundreds of years.

What is predictable is the silly hand-wringing, from the Luddites to those trying to spin it as a consequence of policies they don't like. I wonder how these people manage to explain - in their own excuse-making minds - how this country once employed 50% of its populace in agriculture and now employs a mere 2%, yet 48% percent of the country isn't standing around without work complaining that the tractor and combine replaced the plow and hoe?

They have their Larry Kudlow sound-bites, but unfortunately for them, they don't have reality on their side:
https://www.nber.org/papers/w25434
Actually, ATMs and coincident automations really did decrease bank employment when you consider the staffing levels employed by banks from the 1980's to now. Mergers became commonplace, layoffs were a part of every budget, and hiring continued to shrink relative to the economy as a whole.

I worked in the IT end of that industry from the early seventies until my departure at the start of the Great Recession. We eliminated thousands of teller positions early on with ATMs, and many more back office jobs via computer systems which I designed, helped code, and then implemented. Granted, new positions opened up elsewhere, but nowhere near a replacement rate proportional to our population or economic growth.
Today, ten years later the EMPLOYMENT RATE @ 59% is still over 3% lower than it was in 2008!

Automation first gobbles up the simple jobs. Then it suppresses employment at higher skill levels.
Eventually it guts the middle and results in a very polarized labor market comprised of many well paying jobs that only the most talented, intelligent, or skilled can perform, and a large pool of very low skilled jobs that fewer and fewer Americans will do. Social safety nets enable this choice to decline crap jobs which gives rise to a greater influx of migrants, both legal and illegal.

I believe that new technologies are a major cause of rising income and wealth inequality today.

Automation is clearly a double-edged sword.

Last edited by PamelaIamela; 04-21-2019 at 10:29 AM..
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