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Old 04-21-2019, 05:00 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
8,717 posts, read 4,119,768 times
Reputation: 13398

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
Isn’t ai versus having offshored activities just another form of cost cutting?
In the end, sure, and it might make little difference to the stateside work force - hardly matters whether you're unemployed because of a system or someone named Jawahar.

If there's a difference, it's that with offshoring, at least someone somewhere is making a living. With AI, especially after the change begins in force, it's a permanent loss of an increasing number of jobs... globally. And once it's established on an ROI basis, there will be no going back. No one is going to run a company on 1,000 people instead of 10. And there will be learned papers about how it's really all best for all concerned, because profit.

Quote:
But then, these are the “simple” returns. How is it going to know how to eliminate intercompany transactions? How is it going to do consolidated and combined filings?
You really think that an AI can't manage comparative judgments about something as straightforward as tax alternatives? If nothing else, to the point of generating a distilled, verified brief or report for a human to use for the final decision? If a person can juggle the meta-knowledge to know what needs to be known and look up what can't easily be retained, how can a focused machine intelligence be anything but at least that good, with the added asset of infinite, perfect memory for depreciation rules on dump trucks in Alabama?

Quote:
So then suddenly now I’m being sold an expensive black box to replace a cheap, offshore black box I already have.
What makes you think AI systems will be "expensive"? So I can provide you with services from an India-based firm of humans for $100k a year, forever and with rising costs to boot, or a system that will replace what you have, allow simple and inexpensive expansion over time, never need training (not to mention all those inconvenient breaks, benefits, etc.)... for $150k plus $25k a year support?

Price for these systems will be arbitrary and set by that fine invisible hand... which means $20k systems won't be far down the road. Or at least systems that are overwhelmingly cheaper than any human solution.
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Old 04-21-2019, 05:35 PM
 
3,979 posts, read 2,465,771 times
Reputation: 8888
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quietude View Post
In the end, sure, and it might make little difference to the stateside work force - hardly matters whether you're unemployed because of a system or someone named Jawahar.

If there's a difference, it's that with offshoring, at least someone somewhere is making a living. With AI, especially after the change begins in force, it's a permanent loss of an increasing number of jobs... globally. And once it's established on an ROI basis, there will be no going back. No one is going to run a company on 1,000 people instead of 10. And there will be learned papers about how it's really all best for all concerned, because profit.


You really think that an AI can't manage comparative judgments about something as straightforward as tax alternatives? If nothing else, to the point of generating a distilled, verified brief or report for a human to use for the final decision? If a person can juggle the meta-knowledge to know what needs to be known and look up what can't easily be retained, how can a focused machine intelligence be anything but at least that good, with the added asset of infinite, perfect memory for depreciation rules on dump trucks in Alabama?


What makes you think AI systems will be "expensive"? So I can provide you with services from an India-based firm of humans for $100k a year, forever and with rising costs to boot, or a system that will replace what you have, allow simple and inexpensive expansion over time, never need training (not to mention all those inconvenient breaks, benefits, etc.)... for $150k plus $25k a year support?

Price for these systems will be arbitrary and set by that fine invisible hand... which means $20k systems won't be far down the road. Or at least systems that are overwhelmingly cheaper than any human solution.
It can. Today. It can not only prepare it, but it can review it as well in demos I’ve seen. Like I said, SALT compliance is low value. It’s simply recording what’s already happened. I’m made more valuable by not having to spend time on it. Whether that’s because its done by some guy in global business service center somewhere or an ai is doing it.

SALT compliance is work often done by contractors either brought in by loan staff at the big four (their lowest paid interns or staff) or offshored to India. Where random guy in India copied the same as last year and sends it back here in broken English with no understanding of what they actually did. The actual in house staff at a Fortune 500 are too expensive to touch that kind of work.

And I guess you just have more faith in software than I do. For example, tax reform just happened. The IRS still doesn’t know what it wants. The big time corporate software providers still don’t have the new software updated...and updated with what? Whose interpretation of the laws? They’re not black and white. Companies take positions. And that’s just the irs treatment...do the states agree? You have 50 different states agreeing with or decoupling from the federal rules. There’s no agreement on nearly anything.

So sure, we could sit down with the high level staff and perform a ton of maintence to get the automation up and running to our set of interpretations. And when the black box has problems, we can pay consultants boxes of money to troubleshoot them.

Last edited by Thatsright19; 04-21-2019 at 06:02 PM..
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Old 04-21-2019, 05:49 PM
 
23,584 posts, read 9,487,554 times
Reputation: 11399
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocko20 View Post

You don't have to worry about self checkout machines needing a bathroom break, lunch break, calling in sick, shortchanging you, needing additional training, or giving you attitude and I love them.

Ditto. I walk out when they are closed.
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Old 04-21-2019, 06:42 PM
 
Location: southwest TN
8,349 posts, read 15,914,303 times
Reputation: 15559
I have no issue with self-checkouts, in general. However, I've seen it first-hand - when they installed the first 6, I noticed some of my favorite employees were no longer around and then 2 more were installed for large orders and there are, at most, 3 employee operated checkouts. Additionally, the greeter is gone - sent to the fabric dept as the hours of the long-time manager of that dept had her hours cut, as did the greeter and the other fabric employee. So now there are 3 employees sharing the time slots of 2 employees. The "personal shoppers" have a minimum pounds they must be able to lift - and those employees over 70 are mostly unable to lift 35#. These are the workers who were using their hours, already part-time, to help out with their minimum social security checks who are now looking at cuts in those checks to go with the limited hours. It's sad.

Is it limited to WM? I dunno. Fred's, another southern/mid-south employer is closing stores. The local market has cut its hours so, for many people, Walmart is the place to shop - or a trip to the nearest "big city" which isn't a city by a northerner's POV and is at least an hour away.
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Old 04-21-2019, 08:46 PM
 
30,615 posts, read 20,815,094 times
Reputation: 52599
Quote:
Originally Posted by NY Annie View Post
I have no issue with self-checkouts, in general. However, I've seen it first-hand - when they installed the first 6, I noticed some of my favorite employees were no longer around and then 2 more were installed for large orders and there are, at most, 3 employee operated checkouts. Additionally, the greeter is gone - sent to the fabric dept as the hours of the long-time manager of that dept had her hours cut, as did the greeter and the other fabric employee. So now there are 3 employees sharing the time slots of 2 employees. The "personal shoppers" have a minimum pounds they must be able to lift - and those employees over 70 are mostly unable to lift 35#. These are the workers who were using their hours, already part-time, to help out with their minimum social security checks who are now looking at cuts in those checks to go with the limited hours. It's sad.

Is it limited to WM? I dunno. Fred's, another southern/mid-south employer is closing stores. The local market has cut its hours so, for many people, Walmart is the place to shop - or a trip to the nearest "big city" which isn't a city by a northerner's POV and is at least an hour away.
In my local store, you no longer go to customer service to pick up items ordered on Walmart.com. You go to a big machine, put your order number in, and your package comes out. This just started a few weeks ago.
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Old 04-23-2019, 05:12 AM
 
Location: Vermont
1,165 posts, read 1,595,291 times
Reputation: 2491
Our company went from 2200 people to 1100 making more parts due to automation. Companies aren't welfare outfits so to stay ahead of the competition you need to automate. You lose jobs but gain more technical jobs to repair, maintain and program those robots.

Today's workers need to constantly be looking ahead to see where their jobs are headed. The days of settling in to a job until retirement are over. Jobs once thought to be safe are now being automated in one way or another. Almost every industry or company does more today with less people.


My problem with the way our country does things is that we make education hard to attain. It's expensive and then saddles those people with a big debt for a long time. Educating our workforce should be a priority. Throwing $15 at people doesn't solve the problem and only creates more for some businesses already struggling. Too many talented kids get stuck underemployed just because they can't afford school. And companies are having trouble getting qualified people to work for them. Perhaps we could solve both problems by more incentives to go to school. Ever look at student loan interest rates?
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Old 04-23-2019, 08:08 AM
 
30,615 posts, read 20,815,094 times
Reputation: 52599
Quote:
Originally Posted by harpoonalt View Post
Our company went from 2200 people to 1100 making more parts due to automation. Companies aren't welfare outfits so to stay ahead of the competition you need to automate. You lose jobs but gain more technical jobs to repair, maintain and program those robots.

Today's workers need to constantly be looking ahead to see where their jobs are headed. The days of settling in to a job until retirement are over. Jobs once thought to be safe are now being automated in one way or another. Almost every industry or company does more today with less people.


My problem with the way our country does things is that we make education hard to attain. It's expensive and then saddles those people with a big debt for a long time. Educating our workforce should be a priority. Throwing $15 at people doesn't solve the problem and only creates more for some businesses already struggling. Too many talented kids get stuck underemployed just because they can't afford school. And companies are having trouble getting qualified people to work for them. Perhaps we could solve both problems by more incentives to go to school. Ever look at student loan interest rates?
I agree, but I think that vague “going to school” is part of the problem too. Too many kids going to college and taking on debt to graduate with a practically worthless Bachelors in Psychology or something. I think there needs to be a massive push to educate people about what’s coming down the pike. Be honest about it, go into schools and educate kids about how to grow up in the world they will be graduating in.

Even that though, I don’t think even we know what jobs will exist. There certainly won’t be enough even tech jobs if every kid majored in tech. Some tech jobs might even become obsolete. And I don’t know what you do with the many kids who are not talented in math and science, nor to the older people who will lose their jobs but will never catch up to a young person regarding tech. What will happen to all the truck drivers? Are they all going to become programmers? I highly doubt it.

But I think the first step is to start talking about it. I feel like we as a country bury our heads in the sand.
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Old 04-23-2019, 09:41 PM
 
23,584 posts, read 9,487,554 times
Reputation: 11399
Quote:
Originally Posted by ocnjgirl View Post
I agree, but I think that vague “going to school” is part of the problem too. Too many kids going to college and taking on debt to graduate with a practically worthless Bachelors in Psychology or something. I think there needs to be a massive push to educate people about what’s coming down the pike. .




IMO, interest rates should be tied to the BLS future projections associated with a chosen major (hot field gets lower rate), and should be reduced further for those who relocate to one o the 20 best metro regions for that major, for at least 5 years. The reduction should come as a credit against the balance after the 5 year period.

Incentivize Suzie to forgo Gender Studies to major in thriving fields, and to locate in thriving metropolitan regions.
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Old 04-24-2019, 12:40 PM
 
Location: Aurora Denveralis
8,717 posts, read 4,119,768 times
Reputation: 13398
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post




IMO, interest rates should be tied to the BLS future projections associated with a chosen major (hot field gets lower rate), and should be reduced further for those who relocate to one o the 20 best metro regions for that major, for at least 5 years. The reduction should come as a credit against the balance after the 5 year period.

Incentivize Suzie to forgo Gender Studies to major in thriving fields, and to locate in thriving metropolitan regions.
Right. Let's completely cement the idea of 4-year degrees as job tickets, drive more students from non-STEM careers and increase overcrowding of candidates for all those "hot" job fields. Great idea.

Too bad a vast number of students drowning in debt are in the kind of fields you're promoting, not the conservative fantasy notion of advanced basket weaving.
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Old 04-24-2019, 01:17 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
37,033 posts, read 17,152,362 times
Reputation: 27363
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pogue Mahone View Post
If robots are going to take all our jobs why are we importing millions of foreign workers?
Because they haven't been able to develop a harvesting machine for some delicate crops like strawberries, cherries and asparagus. And it's not been cost efficient or possible to create a machine that can babysit small children or effectively clean motel rooms. The other reason we import foreign workers is to lower wage growth for US workers, i.e H1B tech workers.
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