Rumors of the economic expansion’s death have been greatly exaggerated.

[Quietude]

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

Economics is the study of unlimited human wants and desires in a world of finite resources...

And Theology is the study of whether a big block V8 or a supercharged I4 is the purer form of power.

[Hoonose]

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

Wages Gain, Payrolls Rise as Expansion Rolls Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/hiring-...le_email_share

Hiring, Wages Gain Strength as Jobless Rate Holds Steady
https://www.wsj.com/articles/hiring-...le_email_share


Hardly Anyone Wants to Admit America Is Beating Poverty
https://www.wsj.com/articles/hardly-...le_email_share


U.S. Workers Get Biggest Pay Increase in Nearly a Decade
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-emp...le_email_share


Employers Eager to Hire Try a New Policy: ‘No Experience Necessary’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/employe...le_email_share


The Canard About Falling Incomes
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-can...le_email_share




Capitalism is the greatest force for good yet invented by Mankind. Around the world, capitalism has brought more people out of abject poverty than any other system devised. Closer to home, the US middle class is doing very well and is not recovering from the horrendous anti-business policies of the prior administration.

What about the very poor?

Poverty has declined significantly over the past 50 years. Those who disagree ignore data because they don't like what it shows.

Some argue that the official poverty measure from the US Government indicates little improvement since the early 1970s. But this measure is misleading.

First, over the past 40 years America’s safety net has shifted substantially towards in-kind programs such as SNAP (food stamps) and housing benefits, and towards tax expenditures such as the Earned Income Credit while shifting away from traditional cash-transfer programs (live checks). It turns out the US "Official Poverty Measure" doesn't count in-kind assistance or tax expenditure programs.

Second, the official poverty measure relies on incomplete survey data. Americans are less willing today to take the time to respond accurately to government interviewers. For example, the official poverty survey registered only half of the cash welfare the government actually paid out.

Third, the official measure accounts for inflation using the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers, or CPI-U, a benchmark that does not accurately reflect the influence of new consumer products, changes in the quality of goods, or the shift to low-cost stores. While such errors in accounting for inflation have only a small effect on changes from one year to the next, they accumulate over decades and substantially alter long-term trends.

If, instead of focusing on reported incomes, you evaluate poverty based on actual consumption, you get a much better picture. So look at what food, housing, transportation and other goods and services people actually purchase and consume. The data clearly shows that there is much, much less material deprivation than there was decades ago.

For example, according to the American Housing Survey, the poorest 20% of Americans live as the middle class did a generation ago as measured by the square footage of their homes, the number of rooms per person, and the presence of air conditioning, dishwashers and other amenities.

It still sux to be dirt-poor compared to being wealthy, but life is unquestionably getting better for the bottom quintile. It is unquestionably getting better for the middle-class as well.

We care for our poor. My questions were about our middle class. If they are doing well enough then I have no reason to push for their continued success.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by redguard57

#2 - can you name any?

From what I recall, a number of them did recognize the problem with sub-prime mortgages, but few had a sense of how deep the rabbit hole went with the banks beyond just making those mortages, but selling and reselling them. Few thought the entire banking system was at risk, but did realize that 20-25% of the mortgage market was rotten.

That is, until it became clear the banking system was in serious jeopardy, which I recall being recognized by the financial media in late winter, early spring of 2008.

As for today.... I don't know, I'm in my 30s. I graduated into the recession and had a bad first 3-5 years if my working life. Things got better for me circa 2012-13. They have been in a steady upward trend since then.

Pre-recession I was in the army or in college and had mcjobs. I don't know what that economy was like writ-large, didn't pay attention back then.

As far as I can tell, we will either never have another recession again, another 2008 is around the corner or something in between.

What's interesting is that most Americans don't rate the economy as that great. They rate it mediocre. Even though from all appearances and indicators it is the best it has ever been.

Finance/Econ. types who more or less pegged TGR......Dean Baker, Ann Pettifor, Barry Eichengreen, Bill Poole, Gary Shilling, Harvey Rosenblum, Janet Yellen, Davis Advisors/Clipper Fund (these guys sent out a warning letter ~2005, Michael Mayo, Robert Shiller, Andrew Redleaf, Andrew Beal, Kyle Bass, and many more.

Closer to home my ex-neighbor who is a forensic accountant had done some work in Nevada in '05 and '06 then came back to Dallas horrified.

In my mind Shiller gets an asterisk and guys like Roubini shouldn't be taken seriously as they issue worldwide financial free-fall warnings almost quarterly.

Baker, Poole and Mayo were way out in front.

[James Bond 007]

Rumors of the death of the economic recession have been greatly exaggerated.

The US economy is officially in recession

The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the COVID-19 crisis has officially launched the U.S. economy into a recession, thus ending the longest economic expansion on record.

The NBER’s business cycle dating committee calls recessions based on broad checks on employment and production activity.

The committee said that it had determined that economic activity had peaked in February, citing sharp drops in employment and personal consumption following that month. The recession declaration ended the 128-month economic expansion that began in June 2009, which eclipsed the 1990s recovery as the longest on record.

When the NBER declares a “peak,” it essentially marks the beginning of a period of “significant decline.”