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Old 04-14-2008, 11:12 AM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 16,041,418 times
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Doing research from economist I respect whole heartedly I have a good idea of where its going. Anyway here are two good links, hope to hear what you guys think


link

link
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Old 04-14-2008, 02:43 PM
 
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The graph is incredibly misleading on itulip, you see how they space the years on it? It was 1968, 1972, 1976, 1978, 1983... its all randomly spaced and skewing the graph results... I was trying to use it to see how "long" the corrections took place and as far as I can tell... 2-3 years to "create" the bubble and 3-5 years to for the bubble to turnaround... If that is "any" indication then this housing bubble which really started to take off in 2005 and peaked a little after 2007.. that means that it will bottom out by either 2010-2012... wow... those were my predictions at the beginning and I remember being bashed by real estate agents for saying that... but then I was betting on "feelings" rather than historical models... perfect time to buy I guess is 2011? Homes should lose about 100k in that time frame... unless the government jumps in and starts messing everything up (almost a guarantee)...
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Old 04-14-2008, 03:00 PM
 
Location: America
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the bubble peak was in 2006 decline started in late 06, and took off in '07. The ONLY thing the government could do to change the housing market is to inflate wages, other than that there isn't much they can do. As for real estate agents, don't get mad at them. They sell the stuff, they aren't economist. They have no knowledge of how economies or finance work. People go, cram for tests, get licensed and begin selling, thats it. I have friends who are real estate agents. I warned them back in 2003 of what was happening and they said I didn't know what I was talking about. Now, well lets just say, life is a bit more stressful now.

As for the year this could bottom, it could be 2011 to 2014 those are the years I keep hearing about. Guess you just have to be ready and play it by ear.
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Old 04-14-2008, 03:02 PM
 
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next - commercial real estate
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Old 04-14-2008, 03:07 PM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 16,041,418 times
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^^

Yep, I have been reading that too. I keep trying to picture in my mind how this is all going to play out and the affect it will have. I imagine ghost towns are going to appear in certain sections of cities. I also imagine some areas will become emptier with those older residence who were smart enough not to refinance being ok. New residents and refinancing residents will be gone. I imagine we could see similiar situations in commercial areas, boy oh boy.
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Old 04-14-2008, 03:15 PM
 
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It's really scary. And it doesn't take much. Stock up on the canned goods.

And buy a manual-type opener!
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Old 04-14-2008, 03:18 PM
 
Location: Texas
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well, if you are in Texas, you are doing okay. we've seen a small drop in prices, but compared to other states, we are sitting really pretty.
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Old 04-14-2008, 03:29 PM
 
Location: America
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You guys had your housing bust back in 80s I think right? I guess the people learned their lesson from back then.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TexianPatriot View Post
well, if you are in Texas, you are doing okay. we've seen a small drop in prices, but compared to other states, we are sitting really pretty.
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Old 04-14-2008, 03:35 PM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
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I for one think of falling home prices as a very good thing. The lower my property values get the happier I am ! Not sure why I am the only person who seems to feel this way though. Ideally my home would be worth less than 25,000.00 so I can own it!
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Old 04-14-2008, 03:38 PM
 
Location: America
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tallrick

well, I think you bought your house to live in. Others bought their homes to invest and get rich.
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