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Old 11-03-2019, 05:13 PM
 
48 posts, read 7,470 times
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It seems since the nineties Tech bust, Enron, Worldcom, Arthur Anderson, S&L debacle we as a society have been going from one bubble to the next. So, now are we in a debt bubble? I don't know too much about fixed income analytics but it seems the deficit of the US is too high, many local states in a Deficit, and many companies are over-leveraged.

The Federal Reserve keeps lowering interest rates, which signals Economic Concerns. So, could we be in another bubble with potentially major ramifications when it bursts?
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Old 11-03-2019, 06:51 PM
 
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clearly yes we are in the midst of another bubble yet we have not realized it. I'm just trying to figure out how to best capitalize the impending doom that is coming. how does one profit on the mass default of loans?
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Old 11-03-2019, 06:53 PM
 
48 posts, read 7,470 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SWFL_Native View Post
clearly yes we are in the midst of another bubble yet we have not realized it. I'm just trying to figure out how to best capitalize the impending doom that is coming. how does one profit on the mass default of loans?
That seems to be the order of the day ie making money on the collapse so why worry about a collapse. I largely feel our Domestic Statistics are contrived. Then I read in an article 46% of Wall Street is tied to foreign markets. So, there may come a time when the Domestic life of your average worker may not matter to the Financial Elite, especially since they make money in either direction.
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Old 11-03-2019, 07:02 PM
 
4,979 posts, read 2,143,620 times
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yes.
another bubble.
which kind?
we will find out
soon enough.

essentially, we will enjoy any bubble
for as long as it lasts since we will
let the good times roll.
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Old 11-03-2019, 07:45 PM
 
48 posts, read 7,470 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by turkeydance View Post
yes.
another bubble.
which kind?
we will find out
soon enough.

essentially, we will enjoy any bubble
for as long as it lasts since we will
let the good times roll.
Yah, let the good times roll. I remember that song from the seventies just can't place who wrote it. But on Reddit, which I don't recommend, I did an AMA with this Aaron Gantz guy some kind of Journalist on Author on financial crisis.

I presented him with the view that the party animals of the seventies, became the wealthy of the eighties, and then some went onto be global elites with the same moral of the seventies--let's keep the party going.

He didn't confirm or deny it but his response seemed to suggest he had to think about it.
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Old 11-03-2019, 09:24 PM
 
1,998 posts, read 491,997 times
Reputation: 3060
Quote:
Originally Posted by Questioner1981 View Post
It seems since the nineties Tech bust, Enron, Worldcom, Arthur Anderson, S&L debacle we as a society have been going from one bubble to the next. So, now are we in a debt bubble? I don't know too much about fixed income analytics but it seems the deficit of the US is too high, many local states in a Deficit, and many companies are over-leveraged.

The Federal Reserve keeps lowering interest rates, which signals Economic Concerns. So, could we be in another bubble with potentially major ramifications when it bursts?

Correct. A massive global debt bubble. When you see 100-year bonds yielding 1.2% you know it is a massive bubble.
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Old 11-04-2019, 02:37 AM
Status: "State of Satisfied Bliss and Indifference" (set 23 days ago)
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
7,014 posts, read 11,022,277 times
Reputation: 6531
Quote:
Originally Posted by Questioner1981 View Post
So, there may come a time when the Domestic life of your average worker may not matter to the Financial Elite, especially since they make money in either direction.
That time has already come. It's far from just the "financial" elite. Robots are next.

Globalization, at least at the pace it came, is not your friend.

By the way, no need to use upper case letters, it trivializes yourself and the grave matters behind which are real people who make conscious decisions and their responsibility for them. Moreover, throwing around words like "bubble" and "collapse" with no precise definition also trivializes you and any point you are trying to make. In fact, such carelessness only serves to mask the real people who make conscious decisions and who love for others, wittingly or unwittingly (better the latter), to blame them on "-isms", little so many dogs kicking up dirt to cover their feces.

The S&L debacle started in the 1980s, but it does represent the financial side - which is only one aspect - of the start of the process that you seem to be trying to describe. However, the early 2000s tech bust, Enron, Worldcom, Arthur Anderson have little to do with it. More insightful is to point to repeal of Glass-Steagall, credit-driven consumption, math as money, and the junk mortgage debacle of the mid-2000s, that was definitely a bubble by any definition.

Yes, administrators and employees in many municipalities and some States over the decades have voted themselves golden retirement plans that are not financially sound. Robots are next.

At the same time, the US economy still produces plenty of food, electricity, other basic goods and services rather efficiently, and it could probably bring back a lot of basic manufacturing, more expensive to be sure, but it might deflate a lot of these "bubbles". Lots of air pockets to be shifted around. Who can breathe easy?

In any case, I'm more concerned about dying in a traffic accident or of cancer in the next two years than impersonal macro "bubbles" and other "-isms" that I can do little or nothing about, and instead getting right every momentary cycle of breath in the meantime where I have a better chance.

Good Luck!

Last edited by bale002; 11-04-2019 at 02:49 AM..
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Old 11-04-2019, 04:16 AM
 
Location: Northern Maine
9,936 posts, read 15,340,445 times
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I am a real estate broker - 30 years experience. (Pay no attention to what some spammer put up there under my handle.) I recently sold a home to a 92 year old lady. The bank took a 30 year mortgage on the home. Why would a bank do that?

Virtually all home mortgages are backed by you, the taxpayer. When the 92 year old lady passes on, her heirs will inherit the home and continue paying the mortgage. Her "kids" are retired and have limited incomes. The town of Millinocket, Maine recently sold 16 homes for $48,000. That wasn't each; that was an average of $3,000 each.

So, what happens to the house that was sold for $3,000? The resident's cousin bought it and the cousin living there paid the buying cousin $3,000. Happens all the time. Back in the 1920s, Henry Ford said, "If the American citizens understood the Federal Reserve, there would be a revolution before Monday."

In 1919 you could buy a cow with a $20 gold piece. Today you can buy a cow with that same $20 gold piece. A $20 federal reserve note will get you about four pounds of good hamburg. At the county fair, you can buy a $1,000,000 bill from Zimbabwe for a dollar. That's where we are headed with bonds yielding less than one percent. It's funny money.

Buy the five G's: gold, grub, guns, gas and ground.

Last edited by Northern Maine Land Man; 11-04-2019 at 04:18 AM.. Reason: typo
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Old 11-04-2019, 07:46 AM
Status: "State of Satisfied Bliss and Indifference" (set 23 days ago)
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
7,014 posts, read 11,022,277 times
Reputation: 6531
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Maine Land Man View Post
I am a real estate broker - 30 years experience. (Pay no attention to what some spammer put up there under my handle.) I recently sold a home to a 92 year old lady. The bank took a 30 year mortgage on the home. Why would a bank do that?

Virtually all home mortgages are backed by you, the taxpayer. When the 92 year old lady passes on, her heirs will inherit the home and continue paying the mortgage. Her "kids" are retired and have limited incomes. The town of Millinocket, Maine recently sold 16 homes for $48,000. That wasn't each; that was an average of $3,000 each.

So, what happens to the house that was sold for $3,000? The resident's cousin bought it and the cousin living there paid the buying cousin $3,000. Happens all the time. Back in the 1920s, Henry Ford said, "If the American citizens understood the Federal Reserve, there would be a revolution before Monday."

In 1919 you could buy a cow with a $20 gold piece. Today you can buy a cow with that same $20 gold piece. A $20 federal reserve note will get you about four pounds of good hamburg. At the county fair, you can buy a $1,000,000 bill from Zimbabwe for a dollar. That's where we are headed with bonds yielding less than one percent. It's funny money.

Buy the five G's: gold, grub, guns, gas and ground.
Maybe. But there's an ocean of difference between the goods and services that the US economy produces and distributes and the goods and services that the Zimbabwe economy produces and distributes.

To be sure, there are many gross, disgusting inefficiencies in the US economy that are leading to no good and people should offer both their scathing criticisms and constructive solutions, but at any rate it is still the most efficient producer and distributor of the widest variety of goods and services (with some glaring exceptions like health care).

The main reason why the money supply (debt) is so big and growth so slow is because the economy is that big.

Keep the blood flowing and breathe easy, my friend, breathe easy.
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Old 11-04-2019, 08:50 AM
 
Location: Northern Maine
9,936 posts, read 15,340,445 times
Reputation: 9972
I just gave bale002 an "attaboy". He or she gets it. I get it. My Econ professor got it in 1972. He was dying of pancreatic cancer and wanted to work as long as he could. He told us where money comes from, where money is and where money goes. Goes? Yes, indeed. You can destroy money. The other Econ professors hated him because "the system" does not want students to know some facts like that, or like this that he told us: In Germany after WWI, citizens hung bankers from lamp posts out in front of their banks.

My $20 gold piece example above is true. Henry Ford said, "If the American Prople understood the federal reserve, there would be a revolution by Monday morning."

The federal reserve is two lies in one term. It is not federal and there is no reserve. In the world's financial system there is $770 TRILLION dollars in derivatives that will never be redeemed. Yet, banks call these assets. They are not assets.

bale002, I do keep the blood flowing. I have donated over 15 GALLONS of blood over the years and I do breathe easy. I'm a real estate broker and the most popular property in our nation today is a rural home on a dead end road with a water source on the property, a cleared area for a garden and trees for firewood. Buyers refer to these properties as "bug out destinations". These are smart, professional, accomplished and prosperous people. They also breathe easy, but they keep their eyes on their rear view mirrors.

Last edited by Northern Maine Land Man; 11-04-2019 at 08:54 AM.. Reason: typo
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