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Old 12-06-2019, 06:31 PM
 
Location: Redwood Shores, CA
419 posts, read 134,698 times
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I read that those who stopped looking for a job are excluded in the calculation of unemployment rate. How does the govt know I have stopped looking for a job?
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Old 12-06-2019, 06:44 PM
 
Location: The Ozone Layer, apparently...
2,084 posts, read 762,559 times
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Sort of. Actually, I think its more like once your Unemployment Benefits are exhausted/stopped, you are no longer counted amongst the Unemployed even if you indeed are still unemployed.

Back in the day, you used to have to prove a job search while you were collecting UE. You wrote down who you applied to weekly, and they theoretically followed up to make sure you were not making your alleged job search up.

Today, at least where I am, its all automated now - you apply by talking to a machine on the phone. I haven't collected UE since the early 90's, so I really don't know if you even have to prove you searched for a job anymore.
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Old 12-06-2019, 07:30 PM
 
9,749 posts, read 12,724,283 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertFisher View Post
I read that those who stopped looking for a job are excluded in the calculation of unemployment rate. How does the govt know I have stopped looking for a job?
For federal purposes, once you stop collecting unemployment, the assumption is you went back to work. Back during the recession, the unemployment numbers were a bit more accurate as there were federal unemployment extended benefits that let a person stay of unemployment for much longer. Now, with the end of federal extended unemployment benefits, there's no mechanism to collect date on those still unemployed so it looks like more people returned to work.

Since the unemployment number also factors in a statistical number of those who are unemployed but not in any reporting class, job reports can lower the statistical unemployment rate further diluting the true picture. Take for example the latest job report, these added jobs include all the seasonal holiday workers, plus it also includes all workers who went out on strike (like GM) but returned to work when the strike ended. They are never included in the unemployment rate but are included in the new hire rate. Even a person who holds two part time jobs will appear as being two separate employed persons.

How accurate or what is or isn't included is a very bias methods since so much can be modified in reporting based on current policy.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ComeCloser View Post
I haven't collected UE since the early 90's, so I really don't know if you even have to prove you searched for a job anymore.
Job search is still a (federal regulation) requirement for unemployment payment in all states. However, each state controls how they audit those searched. Most states audit if someone anonymously drops a dime to their fraud hotline (usual someone who thinks you're milking the system) or on a pure random name picked for the hat basis. Even so, few actually verify the info unless something suspicious or specifically is raised.
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Old 12-07-2019, 02:10 AM
 
2,144 posts, read 1,023,931 times
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If you don't qualify for unemployment then you don't count as unemployed. I have never lasted at a job long enough to be eligible, so I have never been counted as unemployed. There is no way the government would know who all was job searching.
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Old 12-07-2019, 08:40 AM
 
4,480 posts, read 2,483,908 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ComeCloser View Post
Today, at least where I am, its all automated now - you apply by talking to a machine on the phone. I haven't collected UE since the early 90's, so I really don't know if you even have to prove you searched for a job anymore.
I collected unemployment for a short time earlier this decade. In my state, I had to disclose the number of job applications that I submitted weekly. It could be audited at any time, but very few are actually audited. I also had to attend an in-person seminar on job searching as a stipulation for collecting unemployment.
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Old 12-07-2019, 09:10 AM
 
Location: Niceville, FL
8,058 posts, read 16,594,284 times
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How the BLS calculates unemployment numbers:

https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.pdf

So nothing to do with unemployment benefits but rather a phone sampling in statistically significant numbers to extrapolate the number of people who are actively looking for a job and can't find one.
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Old 12-07-2019, 09:15 AM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
7,550 posts, read 7,039,615 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beachmouse View Post
How the BLS calculates unemployment numbers:

https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.pdf

So nothing to do with unemployment benefits but rather a phone sampling in statistically significant numbers to extrapolate the number of people who are actively looking for a job and can't find one.
Exactly. This is where people who haven’t taken a statistics class chime in and say “I’ve never been polled, so the results aren’t valid.”
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Old 12-07-2019, 11:53 AM
 
Location: Ohio
20,899 posts, read 14,808,128 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertFisher View Post
I read that those who stopped looking for a job are excluded in the calculation of unemployment rate. How does the govt know I have stopped looking for a job?
That's why you should stop visiting whacko websites.

There are two measures. One is called the "CPS" and is the Current Population Survey.

The carry out the CPS, the US Census Bureau selects 60,000 households in the US.

Whether the households have land-lines or cell-phones doesn't make a damn bit of difference.

Those 60,000 households agree to participate in the CPS for a period of 12 months (1 year).

The US Census Bureau contracts with a marketing/research firm to contact each of the 60,000 households on the 15th of each month.

The survey questions that interest us are the following:

1) Are you employed? If the respondent answers "Yes" then the next question is "How many hours did you work in the 4 preceding weeks?"

If the respondent indicates they worked 35+ hours per week they are labeled "Full-Time" and asked a series of related questions including "What is your wage?" and "Do you have health insurance?"

If the respondent indicates they worked 35- hours per week, then they are asked to describe why:

a) I choose to work part-time
b) I worked part-time because I'm a care-giver or a student or other similar reason
c) I worked part-time because our hours were cut, ie there isn't enough work right now to work full-time
d) I worked part-time because I couldn't find a full-time job

Then they are asked additional questions related to wages and benefits.

If the respondents says they were not employed in the four prior weeks, then they are asked:

1) Do you want to work? If the respondent answers "No" then that person is tallied as "Not in Labor Force" and the next series of survey questions are skipped.

2) Are you available to work? If the respondent answers "No" then that person is tallied as "Not in Labor Force" and the next series of survey questions are skipped.

3) Did you seek work in the last 4 weeks? If the respondent answers "Yes" they are tallied as "Unemployed."

If the respondent answers "No" then they are asked if they sought work in the last 12 months. If they answer "Yes" then they fall under the U-6 measure.

But if they answer "No," they are asked why and if they claim they are "discouraged about job prospects" then they fall into another category.

That's how it is done.

In short, the US Census Bureau tracks the same household for an entire year.

Statistically speaking, the responses of the 60,000 households will be similar to all 187 Million households and within a margin of error of ±3%.

The second measure is the CES or Current Employment Survey.

This is a survey of businesses. They are asked how many employees are on their payroll, their future hiring projections, current wages and benefits, projections of future wages and benefits, purchases, capital investments, expansions, and so on.
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Old 12-07-2019, 12:29 PM
 
370 posts, read 159,286 times
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Hasn't the unemployment number and new jobs number been calculated the same way for years? As long as the math is the same, can't you compare the percentages to see more employment or more jobs YOY?
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Old 12-07-2019, 02:54 PM
 
11,575 posts, read 9,072,160 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by numsgal View Post
Hasn't the unemployment number and new jobs number been calculated the same way for years? As long as the math is the same, can't you compare the percentages to see more employment or more jobs YOY?
They've used the same calculation for decades.
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