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Old 02-10-2020, 12:23 AM
 
Location: Maine
2,501 posts, read 1,785,367 times
Reputation: 4372

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I've got to wonder if the Chinese government will finally start to close these open air bush meat markets down.

The losses from this virus are probably going to be in the trillions.

I can't imagine they will want to take that kinda hit again just because some peasants like to eat a small scaled armadillo.
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Old 02-10-2020, 03:05 PM
 
Location: Haiku
6,688 posts, read 3,293,846 times
Reputation: 9491
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
At the moment we lack data to either praise China, or to condemn it. Independent vetting isn't possible. We only have the official narrative, and personal anecdotes.
I am not a fan of the blame-game. We need to just figure out how to deal with it.

Quote:

For instance, if the death-rate within China, is higher than that exterior to it, is that because of (1) more sophisticated medical care in other countries, (2) under-reporting of Chinese cases of infection, (3) the overwhelming of the Chinese healthcare system, (4) mismanagement and systematic neglect, (5) sheer bad luck, or (6) something else?
Probably a bit of each of those things but mostly #3. In the US and Europe we have way less than 100 cases and each one gets tons of medical care. I am not sure on the fraction in China who die in hospitals but I get the feeling a lot of deaths are outside of the hospital. You now have to have a reservation to get a bed in a Chinese hospital, and they won't give you one until you are confirmed to have NCoV. It is a catch-22.

Here in the US, the only place that can test for the virus is the CDC! There are no "test kits", the sample must be shipped to the CDC. I am not sure what other countries are doing, but if it is difficult for the US to come up with an easy test, it seems suspect exactly what is being tested in all these places.
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Old 02-10-2020, 04:27 PM
 
27,719 posts, read 34,525,940 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
I am not a fan of the blame-game. We need to just figure out how to deal with it.



Probably a bit of each of those things but mostly #3. In the US and Europe we have way less than 100 cases and each one gets tons of medical care. I am not sure on the fraction in China who die in hospitals but I get the feeling a lot of deaths are outside of the hospital. You now have to have a reservation to get a bed in a Chinese hospital, and they won't give you one until you are confirmed to have NCoV. It is a catch-22.

Here in the US, the only place that can test for the virus is the CDC! There are no "test kits", the sample must be shipped to the CDC. I am not sure what other countries are doing, but if it is difficult for the US to come up with an easy test, it seems suspect exactly what is being tested in all these places.
The CDC newsroom states that a CDC-developed test kit began shipping on Wednesday (Feb 5) to “ select qualified U.S. and international labs”.
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Old 02-13-2020, 12:42 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA
407 posts, read 159,195 times
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It increasingly looks like China's out of action for a long, long time. I'm already hearing reports of supply shortages in the US from the lack of China output.

My question is thus: If China gets knocked down and out with this modern-day plague, how long would it take for the US to start making our own "stuff" again? How long would the shelves of Wal-mart and Target stay bare until we're able to get our factories up and running again? Would other countries (like Mexico and Brazil) be able to pick up the slack?
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Old 02-13-2020, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Haiku
6,688 posts, read 3,293,846 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Radical_Thinker View Post
It increasingly looks like China's out of action for a long, long time. I'm already hearing reports of supply shortages in the US from the lack of China output.

My question is thus: If China gets knocked down and out with this modern-day plague, how long would it take for the US to start making our own "stuff" again? How long would the shelves of Wal-mart and Target stay bare until we're able to get our factories up and running again? Would other countries (like Mexico and Brazil) be able to pick up the slack?
Supply chains do not happen overnight especially for highly engineered products like cars and electronics. A manufacturer has to take specs and create a production line which has to be tested for quality, and that facility will in turn rely upon other suppliers for materials that go into the process. Contracts have to be written, commitments made, there are tons of dependencies. It will probably be quicker in many cases to just wait out the virus than to try to recreate a global supply chain. Some parts would likely never be relocated to the US. The Chinese will protect their businesses by offering discounts and other things so that US companies do not abandon them while they are fighting the virus.

It is a mess and I would be surprised if this does not kick off a recession.
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Old 02-13-2020, 01:24 PM
 
17,919 posts, read 16,084,250 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
Supply chains do not happen overnight especially for highly engineered products like cars and electronics. A manufacturer has to take specs and create a production line which has to be tested for quality, and that facility will in turn rely upon other suppliers for materials that go into the process. Contracts have to be written, commitments made, there are tons of dependencies. It will probably be quicker in many cases to just wait out the virus than to try to recreate a global supply chain. Some parts would likely never be relocated to the US. The Chinese will protect their businesses by offering discounts and other things so that US companies do not abandon them while they are fighting the virus.

It is a mess and I would be surprised if this does not kick off a recession.

Too many variables to make that determination. A common rational used to suggest the Depression ended was WWII. Well the allies engaged in direct investment for the war effort to follow suit, played by Germany. If you understand what happens when the exchange medium become the highest yielding asset , its easy to see how Germany punched way above its industrial weight. It directly paid its industrial suppliers while other sat on the gold standard with rock bottom industrial utilization . So I have no idea wether da guberment will sit around and wallow or if da gubenment will fund a war effort.





https://www.merkinvestments.com/imag...sing-power.jpg






https://delong.typepad.com/kalecki43.pdf
here are, however, even more direct indications that a first-class political issue is at stake here.[2] In the great depression in the 1930s, big business consistently opposed experiments for increasing employment by government spending in all countries, except Nazi Germany. This was to be clearly seen in the USA (opposition to the New Deal), in France (the Blum experiment), and in Germany before Hitler.[3] The attitude is not easy to explain. Clearly, higher output and employment benefit not only workers but entrepreneurs as well, because the latter's profits rise. And the policy of full employment outlined above does not encroach upon profits because it does not involve any additional taxation. The entrepreneurs in the slump are longing for a boom; why do they not gladly accept the synthetic boom which the government is able to offer them? It is this difficult and fascinating question with which we intend to deal in this article


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Old 02-14-2020, 09:54 PM
 
9,774 posts, read 4,293,232 times
Reputation: 1908
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
Too many variables to make that determination. A common rational used to suggest the Depression ended was WWII. Well the allies engaged in direct investment for the war effort to follow suit, played by Germany. If you understand what happens when the exchange medium become the highest yielding asset , its easy to see how Germany punched way above its industrial weight. It directly paid its industrial suppliers while other sat on the gold standard with rock bottom industrial utilization . So I have no idea wether da guberment will sit around and wallow or if da gubenment will fund a war effort.





https://www.merkinvestments.com/imag...sing-power.jpg






https://delong.typepad.com/kalecki43.pdf
here are, however, even more direct indications that a first-class political issue is at stake here.[2] In the great depression in the 1930s, big business consistently opposed experiments for increasing employment by government spending in all countries, except Nazi Germany. This was to be clearly seen in the USA (opposition to the New Deal), in France (the Blum experiment), and in Germany before Hitler.[3] The attitude is not easy to explain. Clearly, higher output and employment benefit not only workers but entrepreneurs as well, because the latter's profits rise. And the policy of full employment outlined above does not encroach upon profits because it does not involve any additional taxation. The entrepreneurs in the slump are longing for a boom; why do they not gladly accept the synthetic boom which the government is able to offer them? It is this difficult and fascinating question with which we intend to deal in this article


It will interesting to see the extent of China's monetary interventions used in the near future to stave off recession.
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Old 02-14-2020, 09:56 PM
 
9,774 posts, read 4,293,232 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
Disagree.

Hyperinflation is almost always caused by massive expansion in the money supply.
In the USA post 2008, the Fed with QE's created massive amounts of new moneys. Japan lives by it. Onerous inflation nowhere to be seen.
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Old Today, 01:55 PM
 
Location: Guadalajara, MX
6,931 posts, read 3,352,094 times
Reputation: 13202
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
I am not a fan of the blame-game.
Agreed. I'm no fan of China government/leadership but it's bizarre how many have focused their energy into ranting against China above anything else related to this virus.
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