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Old 01-27-2020, 11:26 AM
 
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sars at it's peak infected 8100 with 774 deaths .

certainly nothing that major , markets spooked in 2003 like this , then finished the year strong.

i added to my oil position today .
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Old 01-27-2020, 12:07 PM
 
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There is a Chinese reporter on Fox now saying the Chinese first response to this was to arrest people who told the truth about the virus. She said this is way worse than SARS.
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Old 01-27-2020, 03:26 PM
 
Location: Guadalajara, MX
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French doctor who has actually been treating corona patients and exchanging information with other doctors had a different take:

https://www.france24.com/en/20200125...-french-doctor

“This illness is a lot less serious - and we don’t say this based on two patients, but talking to our international colleagues - than, for example, SARS,” Yazdanpaneh said, referring to the 2002 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome that killed hundreds of people.
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Old 01-27-2020, 06:44 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
I mentioned this on another thread in the investing forum. IMO this is clearly another case of the typical idiocy of major investment managers and their herd like behavior. It seems to be a very generalized drop with no consideration of which companies might loss or profit IF the coronavirus turns out to be a serious killer and major concern. 50 or 100 or even a few 100 deaths just does not quality as a major concern likely to disrupt financial markets and the economies of the world.
Investment managers are selling not because they fear a reduction in corporate profits... that is, a deterioration in fundamentals. They're selling because they think that other investment managers might be selling, who in turn aren't selling from any personal conviction about the fundamentals, but because they too are fearing that others are selling... and so forth, to infinite regression.

In investment, there is no reality whatsoever. None. Only perception. If the perception is that we'll have a nuclear war tomorrow, whereas in reality there will not only be perpetual peace but a doubling of corporate profits, then the market will crash anyway.

But... if enough people get disappointed, they'll behave accordingly. Then reality will eventually follow perception. It's the textbook self-fulfilling prophesy.
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Old 01-27-2020, 06:54 PM
 
Location: Southwest Washington State
24,734 posts, read 15,934,342 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heart84 View Post
Typical media fear cycles. Every few years there is a deadly virus they fixate on for about a month or two to fill the news loop. Usually during the winter months because the fear of illness is higher. Climate change fear-mongering was getting a little stale so now this. Although the media will likely blame this virus on "climate change." Then on to the 24/7 election rabid obsession coverage........
This is not ‘typical”. China is taking this virus very seriously. Their actions in closing the city and, apparently, building new hospitals, tell me that they consider this a dire health risk to their population.

Remember, it is new. So it is not known how this manifests. They have just learned that it can be spread before symptoms are apparent. But we don’t know how easily it turns to pneumonia, nor what later side effects might be.

I don’t consider this illness more severe than bad flu, and certainly not as bad as ebola, but since it is new to humans there are questions about it.

I don’t see this as not being newsworthy.
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Old 01-27-2020, 07:37 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
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The market has been skittish like this with every little hiccup of the Trump era.

So far there are 2700 coronavirus cases and 81 deaths.

For a point of reference, in the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak, there were 29,000 Ebola cases and 11,000 deaths. So far, Coronavirus is proving itself to be far less deadly than Ebola. I suppose the fear is that it could turn into some kind 1918 flu pandemic, since it's respiratory and spreads pretty much like flu. Especially because it's China and there are so many people, it could spread like wildfire. And China is more important ecoomically than west Africa.
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Old 01-27-2020, 08:05 PM
 
Location: Inland FL
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Eh, we'll be fine.
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Old 01-27-2020, 08:37 PM
 
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The virus is a nothing burger long term. Comparing it to Ebola is just silly. Even if its 1/3 as deadly as SARS the infection rates are through the roof. The impact will likely be similar unless they can contain it which I doubt. Regardless, I don't believe that will an issue in a few months.

The bigger issue is economic growth is garbage and continues to trend downward despite lots of stimulus / liquidity injections. The market was looking for a reason to sell off and the virus was convenient. Commodities and bonds had been selling off / rallying already for days prior to the virus news breaking. That is far more scary to me than the virus and a significant warning about future growth with equities hitting 18.5 multiples with negative earnings growth continuing another q.

Last edited by aridon; 01-27-2020 at 08:54 PM..
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Old 01-27-2020, 11:30 PM
 
Location: Southwest
1,643 posts, read 1,138,996 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grlzrl View Post
There is a Chinese reporter on Fox now saying the Chinese first response to this was to arrest people who told the truth about the virus. She said this is way worse than SARS.

Reading the above post make me think the devil may be in the details, so to speak. Time will tell.
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Old 01-28-2020, 04:19 AM
 
76,246 posts, read 75,604,669 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
Investment managers are selling not because they fear a reduction in corporate profits... that is, a deterioration in fundamentals. They're selling because they think that other investment managers might be selling, who in turn aren't selling from any personal conviction about the fundamentals, but because they too are fearing that others are selling... and so forth, to infinite regression.

In investment, there is no reality whatsoever. None. Only perception. If the perception is that we'll have a nuclear war tomorrow, whereas in reality there will not only be perpetual peace but a doubling of corporate profits, then the market will crash anyway.

But... if enough people get disappointed, they'll behave accordingly. Then reality will eventually follow perception. It's the textbook self-fulfilling prophesy.
this is true ...

the name of the game for funds is to beat other funds or your index . you can beat them on the way up or on the way down and even at a loss these guys win if they lose less then the competitor does .

for a fund manager losing less then your benchmark is winning even if the fund loses money by selling . that fund manager selling and losing 5% while the index fell 15% is a win for them . it is simply a numbers game and has no basis on fear or perception when things look nasty .

Last edited by mathjak107; 01-28-2020 at 04:44 AM..
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