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Old 02-01-2020, 03:15 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heart84 View Post
Typical media fear cycles. Every few years there is a deadly virus they fixate on for about a month or two to fill the news loop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Free-R View Post
Fake outbreak.
50 million people died of a virus in 1918. That's fifty million people.
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Old 02-01-2020, 04:35 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unit731 View Post
50 million people died of a virus in 1918. That's fifty million people.
Then to be equivalent in terms of population totals you are looking at around 200 million deaths. The death total as of today stands at around 300.
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Old 02-01-2020, 06:44 PM
 
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The infection rate is falling. Still need more data points to confirm but if this holds another day or so I'd say the fears will be mostly over and I'd expect a nice relief rally in stocks, sell off in bonds.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
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Old 02-01-2020, 11:40 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas (Winchester)
468 posts, read 342,597 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aridon View Post
The infection rate is falling. Still need more data points to confirm but if this holds another day or so I'd say the fears will be mostly over and I'd expect a nice relief rally in stocks, sell off in bonds.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
The map is showing about a 25% increase in infections yesterday. Looking at the numbers in China from day to day, it doesn't look like its falling to me. It's holding about steady, meaning it's still spreading.

Note that is confirmed infections. There are likely a lot more.

It seems the real issue here is as much the number of cases requiring hospitalization/treatment, as it is the death rate. The healthcare system could quickly be overrun. Without treatment, the death rate will climb, as will the fear factor. It could really slow down the global economy if people are afraid to report to work, or more likely, if schools close and at least one parent has to then stay home from work.

Given one can be infected up to 15 days and be contagious at least part of that time before showing symptoms, I can't see how this thing can be stopped given the number of people that were allowed to leave Wuhan and that are now getting ill.

I could see this thing bouncing around the world for a while, eventually spreading wildly in the third world. Hopefully it can be bottled up until a vaccine and/or affordable treatment becomes available. Otherwise, it's going to spread much like influenza.
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Old 02-02-2020, 10:59 AM
 
27,637 posts, read 34,453,450 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aridon View Post
The infection rate is falling. Still need more data points to confirm but if this holds another day or so I'd say the fears will be mostly over and I'd expect a nice relief rally in stocks, sell off in bonds.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
I just read this morning that it is increasing, not falling.
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Old 02-02-2020, 11:46 AM
 
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14.3 to 14.5 over 24 hours is significantly lower. We'll see what Monday brings but that wasn't what I was talking about, I'll clarify my poorly written post.

If this were a pandemic you would expect exponential growth in the new cases once the incubation had cycled a couple of times before the protective measures were in place. Cases have gone up obviously to 14k over the month but the infection rates have been fairly steady but as a percent change has fallen. The time for the virus to spread uncontrollably was over the last two week that people were sick but didn't know it and the governments had not taken much action. We've basically gone through a full cycle or two now with better controls and precautions the numbers should have exploded this week and since they haven't either China is lying or the virus is mostly contained.
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Old 02-02-2020, 07:41 PM
 
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361 dead so far.
This is serious as there is no medicine,Thai claimed they have tried 1 anti flu and 2 anti viral HIV on a woman and she is getting better.
They still have not said which wild animal is the carrier?
Some said snake,but some said more like raccoon dog,Chinese has raccon dog farms .
Both civic cats and racoon dogs can harbor bat virus.
Honda said it will open its factory in Wuhan on Feb13th,we shall see !!
There will be an impact on our corporate earnings this quarter-AAPL.SBUX.MCD,TSLA,and the casinos,airlines,disney.
Rest of SE Asia if they are counting on tourism,I wish them luck.
Spain and Italy have many Chinese tourists.
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Old 02-02-2020, 07:44 PM
 
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I bet many are not reported as people tend to deny that they could be infected,they will try home remedy.
If a person is healthy and have strong immune system,could he fight this virus?
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Old 02-03-2020, 12:54 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas (Winchester)
468 posts, read 342,597 times
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I've read at least two articles based on numerous first hand accounts of the inability to be tested for coronavirus in Wuhan. They've run out of test kits. If you cannot be confirmed to have the coronavirus, you cannot be admitted to hospital quarantine. Only those dead on their feet are getting into hospital.

That said, Wuhan is reported to have just opened a new 1000 bed hospital they built in a matter of weeks. They number infected is now under-reported because of the lack of test kits but that could change soon.

What's appalling is how some third world countries are approaching the virus. I read an article where I believe it was the Malaysian government telling citizens not to worry about the virus and to go about their business as usual... and to not wear masks as that would engender fear among the population. They don't want any economic impact, so they're willing to roll the dice that the virus won't spread among their populations. Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.
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Old 02-03-2020, 06:19 AM
 
Location: Colorado Springs
5,261 posts, read 5,416,529 times
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One effect will be a serious disruption in supply chains.

Many products that are assembled in the USA depend on components sourced from China. With an emphasis on "just in time" manufacturing, inventories are purposely kept lean. As a result, you can expect to see disruptions within one month.

Although now retired, I worked in engineering at a firm which manufactures microcircuit assemblies in the USA but imports many of the components from China. The problem is that there may be no other source. Those microcircuit assemblies make possible a $1M product. Lose one component and production stops.

I bet the supply chain people are going nuts today.
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