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Old 02-03-2020, 06:45 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
74,211 posts, read 86,586,859 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mojo101 View Post
I bet many are not reported as people tend to deny that they could be infected,they will try home remedy.
If a person is healthy and have strong immune system,could he fight this virus?
And if your guess is correct apparently people can be cured on their own. My feeling is: you are probably totally wrong. I believe this is something 99% of the people would seek help to try and be cured anyway possible and to stop the spread.

I do believe at this stage here is a panic here in the USA that is over the top. It is hurting us financually but probably helping the pharmacy near near by.
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Old 02-03-2020, 09:13 AM
 
7,032 posts, read 5,225,576 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vision67 View Post
One effect will be a serious disruption in supply chains.
....
Why do you think the virus is going to affect supply from China? Do you think manufacturing and transportation is going to come to a halt because of the virus?

There is a ban on visitors from China, not on goods.
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Old 02-03-2020, 10:22 AM
 
17,838 posts, read 16,049,421 times
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My view it there is no bubble. We have across the board asset inflation. The bear market energy base line is $50 per barrel of oil. Used to be $20-30. Gold is near $1,600 per OZ, bonds are even more pricey than equities and REIT yields are at rock bottom.



If supply chains are affected by China , among other places, then inflation will result. So there goes cash as well. I would hold onto quality equities , PMs. Some cash is good, cash flows even better. So in other words diversification is even more important than usual.
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Old 02-03-2020, 10:24 AM
 
27,637 posts, read 34,453,450 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
And if your guess is correct apparently people can be cured on their own. My feeling is: you are probably totally wrong. I believe this is something 99% of the people would seek help to try and be cured anyway possible and to stop the spread.

I do believe at this stage here is a panic here in the USA that is over the top. It is hurting us financually but probably helping the pharmacy near near by.
Well of course they can. Plenty of people will never need to see a doctor, and they’ll be fine. You realize that people get the flu, and just get over it, without dying, without any prescription meds, right?
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Old 02-03-2020, 10:26 AM
 
17,838 posts, read 16,049,421 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
Why do you think the virus is going to affect supply from China? Do you think manufacturing and transportation is going to come to a halt because of the virus?

There is a ban on visitors from China, not on goods.

The work force could be severely impacted. Is it not already in the quarantine zone? There are new , self sutaining outbreaks all over China. That sound good for factory work?

Last edited by gwynedd1; 02-03-2020 at 10:38 AM..
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Old 02-03-2020, 10:38 AM
 
17,838 posts, read 16,049,421 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
And if your guess is correct apparently people can be cured on their own. My feeling is: you are probably totally wrong. I believe this is something 99% of the people would seek help to try and be cured anyway possible and to stop the spread.

I do believe at this stage here is a panic here in the USA that is over the top. It is hurting us financually but probably helping the pharmacy near near by.



We'll talk when the infection rate stops doubling in less than a week and when the death to recover rate is not 2/3. I don't suppose you might know that China also has a nifty way to suppress the death rate by using comorbidities as cause. Heart disease plus coronovirus = death by heart disease. I know exactly how the Chicoms work because I have worked in the area of the great wall of information. Its the last place in the world to prefer HTTP protocols.
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Old 02-03-2020, 12:06 PM
 
Location: Haiku
6,566 posts, read 3,261,135 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
Why do you think the virus is going to affect supply from China? Do you think manufacturing and transportation is going to come to a halt because of the virus?

There is a ban on visitors from China, not on goods.
Are you kidding? Have you seen pictures of Beijing - it looks like a ghost town. It takes people going to work to keep the supply chain moving, and everybody is too freaked out in China out to go to work.

The million dollar question is whether the US will experience the rapid spread as China has. It is very difficult to stop a virus at the border. People are very mobile in this age. It is still unknown if people can spread it when they have no symptoms. If that is the case, look out.
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Old 02-04-2020, 03:37 AM
 
8,907 posts, read 5,539,296 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
We'll talk when the infection rate stops doubling in less than a week and when the death to recover rate is not 2/3. ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
... Have you seen pictures of Beijing - it looks like a ghost town. It takes people going to work to keep the supply chain moving, and everybody is too freaked out in China out to go to work. ...
Anti-panic is as facile as panic. A sufficiently broad quarantine is enough to cripple supply chains, even if everyone's 100% healthy and the actual death-toll is a tiny footnote compared to bathtub falls or dog-bites.

At the risk of irresponsible provocation, let's indulge in a bit of a thought-experiment, shall we? 10% daily increase in infections, which is what we've been hearing lately, means a doubling every week. It's the same arithmetic as for compound interest. Let's suppose that this number is overstated by a factor of 2. So, it's a doubling every 2 weeks. As of this writing, the infection-total stands at 20,000. In 20 weeks, it becomes 20M. Before the end of the [western] calendar year, every single human live would be infected.

Presumably the above is a silly fable and a ghastly mistake of extrapolation. Let's hope so. I should feel silly even writing such a thing... and for the moment, I do. But... how silly did we feel, in February of 2009, when global stock markets were in unfettered free-fall?
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Old 02-04-2020, 03:44 AM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
24,755 posts, read 29,727,258 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
Heart disease plus coronovirus = death by heart disease.
Source, please.
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Old 02-04-2020, 11:32 AM
 
17,838 posts, read 16,049,421 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
Source, please.



Well, me. As I have said, I have first hand experience in having to implement censorship in China. Its the one place in the world where encrypted protocols are not used or the encryption is weak. It also allows them to implement packet filtering software for unapproved information.





https://jpgamboa.com/ssl-usage-china/


Feel free to research cause of death statistic manipulation. I am a little busy at the moment.
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