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Old 02-05-2020, 10:51 AM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
4,250 posts, read 1,922,320 times
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Well, the finally tallies are in and the runaway trade deficit of the United States halted its increase and actually declined a modest 1.6% last year. It's the first decline in a long time.
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Old 02-05-2020, 12:19 PM
 
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Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
Well, the finally tallies are in and the runaway trade deficit of the United States halted its increase and actually declined a modest 1.6% last year. It's the first decline in a long time.

Yep and it explains the world wide recession. No more dollar outflows for oil.
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Old 02-05-2020, 12:46 PM
 
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Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
Yep and it explains the world wide recession. No more dollar outflows for oil.

Trade deficit shrunk? Well that’s great. The budget deficit is more than a trillion dollars, national debt is up when the economy is the “greatest” it’s ever been
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Old 02-05-2020, 06:09 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
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Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
Yep and it explains the world wide recession. No more dollar outflows for oil.

Two very different things. Oil imports were at the lowest level since the early 90's.


As for a worldwide recession, there isn't one, so I'm not sure how to answer that.



What does appear certain is that the tariffs were disruptive in the worldwide supply chain. What will be interesting to see is if there is anything permanent in supply sourcing, or if this is simply something to go around in the short term.



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1ZZ1WP
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:24 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
Trade deficit shrunk? Well that’s great. The budget deficit is more than a trillion dollars, national debt is up when the economy is the “greatest” it’s ever been

The national debt is a myth. The cash you carry says note on it for a reason. Its part of the "national debt". It can only be exchanged for another "note" which is a treasury and is nothing more than interest bearing cash,

What matters is industrial capacity and employment. At the individual level its great to be employed. However at the macro level it implies less free capacity.


In fact, during Obama's administration, the national debt was created automatically by automatic stabilizers. It was printed money to cover for private debt deflation. Grid lock just ran the budget on auto pilot.

FYI That 1 trillion in a year was half of what mortgage debt was in 2006 at 2 trillion . And that money was in the hands of the middle class with a huge propensity to spend it on good and service unlike the rent seeking rich.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:33 PM
 
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Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
Two very different things. Oil imports were at the lowest level since the early 90's.


As for a worldwide recession, there isn't one, so I'm not sure how to answer that.



Do you own any foreign funds ? All of mine have lagged domestic. The 3rd world is really sick. Sanctions on Russia, Venezuela, Argentina etc. The EU and Japan are continually sluggish. The dollars are here in the US.





https://www.ft.com/content/7e412720-...4-d00e5018f061


Quote:

What does appear certain is that the tariffs were disruptive in the worldwide supply chain. What will be interesting to see is if there is anything permanent in supply sourcing, or if this is simply something to go around in the short term.




Well to some extend this is true because tariffs have the same effect as the end of the oil dollar. Less reserve currency outflows to the rest of the world.
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Old 02-06-2020, 03:05 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
7,154 posts, read 11,102,681 times
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Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post

What does appear certain is that the tariffs were disruptive in the worldwide supply chain. What will be interesting to see is if there is anything permanent in supply sourcing, or if this is simply something to go around in the short term.
Disruption of trade, industrial and migration patterns unfavorable to the economy on US soil has been the very purpose of many of these policies. I too am concerned, however, that any small gains made so far may be temporary: the problems are some 30 years in the making, they can't be solved in three or four years. Still, better some progress out of a hole than falling deeper into it.

I agree with gwynnedd1 that, while deficits and debt are far from optimal (no doubt the money supply is tainted and the US economy an obese organism), they are manageable and much more flexible than tax financing (which is death). There has been wide, wide consensus on that for many, many decades.

As for international funds, I got rid of mine more than five years ago when I saw the writing on the wall. See paragraph one.

All the best!
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Old 02-06-2020, 06:53 AM
 
Location: Chandler, AZ
2,877 posts, read 1,440,383 times
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I have massive trade deficits with Amazon, Costco, the grocery store, the gas station, my mortgage company, insurance...
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Old 02-06-2020, 10:20 AM
 
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Originally Posted by jnojr View Post
I have massive trade deficits with Amazon, Costco, the grocery store, the gas station, my mortgage company, insurance...

Well yeah , but the US is like working at the bank. I suggest the US act like a sound bank.
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Old 02-06-2020, 02:48 PM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
7,154 posts, read 11,102,681 times
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Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
I suggest the US act like a sound bank.
Which sound bank do you prefer?

One based on real deposits from real customers with real income from real work?

Or one based on credit-driven global wholesale money markets, aka math-as-money?
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