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I personally can't imagine how much money will be lost, by everyone, from this whole thing. The number would probably boggle my mind. There really isn't anyone who couldn't be effected, because even if you're in a bulletproof field like say you're a doctor, you're still probably worried about catching the dang virus yourself, or you're extremely stressed by way longer hours, etc. Maybe my radiologist friend is about the closest to sitting pretty of anyone I can imagine. He's a work-from-home radiologist making $565,000/year, so he's not exposed to anyone, just generally speaking, in his every day life besides his girlfriend. He makes boatloads of cash and him and I were both waiting to jump into the stock market on the next recession, so he's able to pour large amounts of money into it.
I will say there are always opportunities in these types of times, if you can find a way, and part of it is just changing your mindset from doom and gloom to what is going to change, what happens next, and how can you adapt for the "new normal."
I'm not sure how much money my business will lose as a result of this pandemic, because it's just too hard to know right now -- do some of our postponed projects get put back onto the calendar and the revenue is pushed later in the year? Do some of them fall by the wayside completely? Are there projects that were time-sensitive and now no longer necessary, so the revenue is lost forever? I'm able to weather the storm, but even at my level, I'm depressed about it and I'm nervous for the future. I wouldn't have minded wrapping up my company in 3-4 years, walking off into the sunset of my bigger goals, and calling it a day. But I'd rather not close my company because the economy has collapsed because of a pandemic, where I didn't go out on my terms.
I think right now, the key question is how do you balance the seriousness of the virus and the consequent death toll with the seriousness of everyone else's livelihoods?
And for those who opine that to reduce human life to mere dollars, is callous and even grotesque, I say this: if I'm promised that my portfolio will return to its January 2020 levels shortly after my death, I volunteer to be executed by government firing squad. It would actually be a relief. And they can charge the expense of the bullets to my estate.
Really?
I'm sure you could find volunteers for most anything, but this one would have somewhat of a shortage.
This cannot go on forever. I'm thinking that in 15 to 30 days, this shutting down of the economy has to stop. As soon as they build makeshift hospitals, manufacture ventilators and other hospital supplies, and have tests for everyone, they need to open everything up again. People who are at risk will need to self-quarantine. Until they have a vaccine in 18 to 24 months, this virus is not going away. What do you think?
This cannot go on forever. I'm thinking that in 15 to 30 days, this shutting down of the economy has to stop. As soon as they build makeshift hospitals, manufacture ventilators and other hospital supplies, and have tests for everyone, they need to open everything up again. People who are at risk will need to self-quarantine. Until they have a vaccine in 18 to 24 months, this virus is not going away. What do you think?
I disagree. The potential this disease has for causing an even greater disruption to our economy will be realized if aggressive measures are not taken now. The more aggressive we are now, the less harm will ultimately result.
I would rather deny people 10% of their income than watch as they bury close family members.
Location: Stuck on the East Coast, hoping to head West
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By all accounts, the group most impacted are the older people, especially if you have an underlying condition. Basically, the boomers. Who is in charge? The boomers. Who has most of the assets in this country and can rely on those reserves to see them through? The boomers.
By all accounts, the vast majority of people will recover, at home. Except for that self-serving group of powerful boomers and, by God, they will save themselves, no matter the cost to everybody else.
As far as social distancing and quarantining, give me a break. I just went to the grocery store. I was stuck with 100s of people, crammed close together, and for over 2 hours. More people, smaller space, and longer time than I experience at my local pub, which is closed right now.
How about that most vulnerable group (the Boomers) who are NOT even attempting to save themselves? Older people were specifically told to shelter in place in my area. Our Boomer governor is berating and threatening younger people for putting older lives at risk, while at the same time ignoring the fact that older people are doing whatever the hell they want anyway. Good grief, locally, they have special senior hours for grocery shopping and Target runs, not that they are taking advantage of them. We are losing money and headed for certain economic decline, maybe a depression, who knows? And you can't even shop at senior hour??
Yeah, flame me, berate me, I don't care. FWIW, I'm Gen X.
This cannot go on forever. I'm thinking that in 15 to 30 days, this shutting down of the economy has to stop.
It was totally stupid.
All that needed to be done was warn the elderly who no longer have efficient immune systems, infants/toddlers who do not have developed immune systems and those with compromised immune systems due to chemotherapy or other causes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TravelingBoat
Until they have a vaccine in 18 to 24 months, this virus is not going away. What do you think?
It's unlikely they will have a vaccine for the same reason they don't have a vaccine for influenza, parainfluenza, adenovirus, RSV, viral pneumonia or corona virus.
Corona has killed 1,000s of people in the US every year for the last 200+ years.
It wasn't until 1965 that they found out that people they thought were dying of influenza, parainfluenza etc were actually dying of corona, because that's when they discovered the corona virus.
Most likely, you've been exposed to corona virus several times in your life already.
Know anyone with chronic bronchitis? That's corona virus.
Both bronchitis and pneumonia can have either a viral or bacterial cause. If it's bacterial, you'll respond to antibiotics and if it's viral, you won't.
Since 1965, you've had corona virus epidemics in the US every 2-3 years, because the virus mutates every 2-3 years.
Some epidemics are worse than others.
In the last 20 years, the corona virus epidemics (and origins) were SARS (China), NL (the Netherlands), HCOV-NH (US), NL63 (the Netherlands), MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) and HKU1 (Hong Kong) and now COVID-19 (China).
The epidemic in 2008 with HCOV-NH didn't get reported by the Media because the Media was having so much fun with the recession.
You don't have vaccines for any of those.
You don't have vaccines for any of the dozen corona virus epidemics that occurred between 1965 and 2000.
So, what on Earth makes you think you are going to have a vaccine for COVID-19?
Dumbbell president went and fired the whole crisis response team before this happened. Said it was too liberal and waste of taxpayer money. Now look, costing people their fortunes.
We're just going to have to reopen the US economy and the feds are going to have to throw money at managing covid-19. It was dumb to shut it down and let it reach this point. Hopefully the US gov invests in technology that helps kill the virus and in treating people who come down with corona. I see big money, big contracts, to come. They better reopen the economy by Saturday.
By Saturday? Well that's not going to happen. We were in this same situation in 2003 with the SARS CoV virus. Toronto in Canada got hit hard and it made its way to our soil. I read the time lines and evolution on both the CDC and WHO websites. It was a terrifying read and eerily similar to what's happening today with one exception. How did we stop it from spreading here back in 2003?
The key was aggressive testing, tracking, and quarantine. Something we don't have today without "all the best people" having left in 2018. The World Health Organization was instrumental in coordinating world wide responses to stopping the virus. This was a total unknown at the time. This Covid virus is closely related to 2003 SARS CoV. Yet, it was shut down before it became a global pandemic and the economic catastrophe we have today.
I found a program on The Travel Channel on demand "How The World Will End." Pandemic was on the list so I watched it. The program talked about the SARS 2003 epidemic and how it started, and how wide spread it became. It was interesting, and yes, a tad sensationalized with this paranoid prepper and his the world will end rhetoric. We have been through pandemics before and we will go through them again. It's all in how it's handled that will make all the difference, and it was definitely handled better in 2003.
There are great minds working in this virus around the globe now and hopefully they are working with the World Health Organization to find a way to shut this down. Part of the strategy in 2003 was to do what we are doing today with shutting down all gatherings. We need a nationwide lock down because there's still too many morons out there not doing the right thing.
This is going to be a long hard process, but at this point, starving the virus is the only tool we have in our war chest. A cure? A vaccine? A year or more away. We have the power to kill it. Stay home.
I disagree. The potential this disease has for causing an even greater disruption to our economy will be realized if aggressive measures are not taken now. The more aggressive we are now, the less harm will ultimately result.
I would rather deny people 10% of their income than watch as they bury close family members.
Please take this seriously.
Why?
As of this minute, the US has 279 deaths and 19,969 reported cases.
When all is said and done, more people will have died of influenza in the US than corona.
That's a 1.4% mortality rate.
The total number of reported deaths globally is 11,949.
10,221 of those deaths are in China, Italy, Iran and Spain.
That means 85.5% of deaths have occurred in just 4 countries.
The deaths in China are understandable. The population is 1.5 Billion; there is no concept of social distancing; and unlike Americans who run to the ER every time they burp, Chinese are reluctant to seek medical treatment unless their symptoms are severe.
The deaths in Italy, Iran and Spain are also understandable.
Italy and Spain have a significantly larger elderly population than the US. I cannot speak for Iran.
However, Italy, Iran and Spain are all unitary States.
A common problem or issue in unitary States is how tax dollars are spent.
France is also a unitary State and a textbook example.
For a very long time, for every $100 French taxpayers would surrender to the government, $99 was spent in Paris and a measly $1 kicked back to their Department (the French version of a State/County/Province).
The French got tired of that and rioted in classic French style burning cars in the streets and stuff.
So, the French government created 5 Economic Zones to provide for a more equitable distribution of tax money.
Now, for every $100 the French surrender to the government in taxes, $60 goes to the Economic Zone that is Paris and $10 is kicked backed to their Economic Region (except the French are too stupid to figure out that with 18-20 Departments in a region they're getting $1 or less, but appearances are everything because on paper it just looks good).
Italy has universal healthcare in a unitary State.
All the tax money is spent in Rome, because it's the capital and the showplace.
If you live in Rome, you have access to the most modern hospitals equipped with all the latest technology and staffed at 100%.
But, if you live in Firenze, or Napoli or Vicenza, you got a WW II or post-WW II hospital that is poorly equipped and what equipment exists is ancient and not staffed at 100%.
Same with Spain. All the tax money is spent in Madrid. Sure, they spent a lot in Barcelona, but that was only because of the Olympics.
If you live in the Costa Brava or Galicia, you suck pond water.
Well, maybe not the Costa Brava, because Iloret-de-Mar is there and a lot of Brits and Dutch vacation there so there might be a more modern hospital for appearance's sake to make the Brits and Dutch feel good.
If you live in Tehran and you're one of the chosen few, you'll probably get good care, but if you live anywhere else in Iran it sucks to be you.
Anyway, that's why deaths are higher in Italy, Iran and Spain, because of the sizeable elderly population and the fact that their universal healthcare system is only of value if you happen to live in the capital city.
Right on. Projections are that it will only kill 500,000 to 1 million Americans this year. That's only about 2% of the population. Go ahead with life as usual. We need volunteers to buff the numbers.
Actual death rates are guesstimated at .4% to .7%.
There's a flip side to shutting down the economy. Increased poverty, depression, substance and/or spouse/partner abuse, hopelessness, dreams shattered.
I doubt there's any constitutional basis for shutting down an entire economy, and IMO whoever does so is borderline insane and begging for some whiplash when this settles down.
Nothing like this has EVER been done before. This is a run of the mill flu type disease process. People who taste absolute power, and like the flavor, are not typically willing to yield it up again.
This cannot go on forever. I'm thinking that in 15 to 30 days, this shutting down of the economy has to stop. As soon as they build makeshift hospitals, manufacture ventilators and other hospital supplies, and have tests for everyone, they need to open everything up again. People who are at risk will need to self-quarantine. Until they have a vaccine in 18 to 24 months, this virus is not going away. What do you think?
the cure is worse than the disease. people who are at greater risk should have been advised to stay at home and take precautions while life should have continued normally for other people.
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