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COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu* are sledgehammers. As economies develop, they get more and more fantastic in their abilities... and simultaneously more intricate, specialized, delicate, vulnerable. The sledgehammer can do more damage to Economy v.2020 than it could to Economy v.1918. It's as simple as that.
*: Why isn't the 'China virus' crowd calling the 1918-19 pathogen the 'American virus' or the 'Kansas virus', since it originated in the Sunflower State? [rhetorical question - we all know why]
China is also one of the most often cited sources of the Spanish flu as well. 100k Chinese laborers were brought in to dig trenches behind the French and British lines. It’s been speculated that samples from November of 1917 were the same and the reason China had lower mortality rates was because people had more immunity due to earlier exposure.
The 3 suspected origins are U.S mid west, the French/U.K. trenches of ww1, and in China.
Last edited by Thatsright19; 03-21-2020 at 06:44 PM..
What is herd immunity and can it stop the coronavirus? Once enough people get Covid-19, it will stop spreading on its own.
We are essentially moving towards quarantining everyone of all ages, a full shutdown is likely very soon, it would have been easier to quarantine one segment of the population than all of it. Many of the above like elderly, those in cancer treatment or with other serious illnesses do not go out much anyways. My mom is 89 and his home almost all the time. She is aware she needs to stay home to avoid getting the virus and her lifestyle has not changed much at all. I would say at least half the really high risk people are the same.
I did not say it was no big deal. I said the worst of it was similar to 2008 and some estimates even with massive intervention say the economy will do much worse this year than it did with the pandemic of 1918. And there were other factors in 1918 like hits to the economy due to WW1, something we don't have to deal with today. And I don't believe the short recession in the mid 1920's was caused by the pandemic. So why bring that up?
I am not a fan of the fed, or fed propaganda. The government screws things up by promoting a credit and debt bubble, runs up massive deficits and then when a pandemic pops those bubbles we need government action to save us. You realize that smarter monetary policy or even no monetary policy at all would have been better that what the fed did. And now we again bailout those at the top just like 2008. And people just go along with it because we are all suppose to be in a panic.
One thing that is interesting is all the massive government interventions that have become commonplace have not stopped downturns. That is one takeaway when you look at historical GDP numbers. Yes prior to the great depression we had more frequent recessions but they usually ended on their own fairly quickly. We never really fully recovered from 2008. Yes those at the top did really well pushing up GDP numbers. But the bottom 1/3rd are still struggling. That is what happens with near zero interest rates for a decade. The bottom 1/3rd use payday and title loans, pawn shops and high interest credit cards. They get nothing from zero percent interest. And costs like housing skyrocket. And now we need to save those people because they have zero savings and we have decided that closing businesses that employ them is the best way to fight the virus.
1. I know what herd immunity is. And I repeat we do not know that recovered individuals will develop long term immunity to CV-19.
2. You and I are never going to agree about macroeconomics because you are spinning history as you go.
I went to visit a friend in Memory Care lockdown unit. She's dead now. Though we are still fairly new living here, learned quickly she had few friends if any at all. They wouldn't let me in to visit her on 3-8. I posted this here on C/D so know the date
Before that, a few staff members were asking me to help feed her. She was refusing to eat. She was so skinny. She was hitting the walls, never stopped walking in circles. Upset alot wanting me to take her home. No doubt she starved to death.
On 3-8, the lobby it looked bare. Only one person was there at the desk. No noise or activity at all. I assumed they had few staff.
I wonder how they will dispose of her body?
What Mortician wants to be exposed to anyone right now?
She retired from teaching the 5th grade so was doing ok financially
It is the best in human nature to help where we can.
I'm sure you provided comfort even if it was only moments in time.
Seniors in facilities are having it hard... especially the ones that don't/can't comprehend.
Mom was thinking of moving as many of her friends have done but now it looks like a blessing she didn't.
Taking each day one at a time...
I have a lot of older neighbors... next door is 104 1/2... and she was around when the Spanish Flue stuck... only knows what she was told but her mother said they were lucky to be so remote ranching in Nevada... other members of the family living in the big cities didn't fair so well.
I have been researching the 1918 pandemic and its effects in the U.S. The response by the federal government was much more muted compared to what we are doing today. Yes lots of people died and it wrecked havoc on the economy. But we bounced back quickly and before you knew it we had the roaring 20's. Just look at 2008 and how slowly things came back. And that was only with massive government influence with zero interest rates and deficit spending.
Seems like our current response to this is to keep politicians from being voted out of office in November, its causing a massive takeover of our economy by the federal government, may still lead to millions dying and will cause a recession if not depression. Yet the public is conditioned now that this is how it has to be done.
Is the real problem now that we are so credit dependent as a society unlike 1918 where most people owned everything they had outright, including the residence. They could weather a few months of economic downturn, unlike now. Now just about everything is purchased on credit and any kind of economic hiccup forces the government to step in and keep the borrowing going.
Am I missing something here?
You do realize the "roaring 20's" were largely built upon a stock market/economy which was a bubble and came crashing down in 1929 causing the Great Depression.
You also cannot compare medical science of 100 years to modern times. If people knew then what is known today about epidemics the 1918 influenza may not have become a worldwide pandemic.
People and governments assumed the Spanish Flu was just that, an influenza outbreak which routinely happened many times before, and thus would soon blow over.
Spanish Flu spread fast and far as it did for two main reasons; WWI meant movement of troops, displaced persons, and others. Many infected with the virus so it was spread to new areas.
Next because life essentially went on shops, entertainments, businssnes, factories, etc... all were open and keep running. This again meant people who were infected with Spanish Flu virus (but not yet displaying symptoms) were roaming free spreading the bug.
By time governments work up and began half heart measures, it was often too little and late.
The big difference with Spanish flu was that it hit younger people hard. People between 15 and 30 were at greatest risk, especially pregnant women. There was risk for infants and the aged like any flu, but people in their 40s and 50s weathered it better. One theory is that some kind of herd immunity from prior flus helped them.
COVID-19 is the opposite. People under 20 seem to barely get affected, children hardly at all, although they are little vectors spreading it like crazy. Over 20 and 30 still quite low but not nothing, then progressively more dangerous for every next decile with big jumps at 60 and 70, then most dangerous for those over 80.
From information we have, preexisting conditions seem quite correlated with deaths, especially any kind of lung issue. Air quality in Hubei and northern Italy is probably a factor, and I'd be interested in knowing if there is or how much a correlation there is between corona deaths and current or prior smoking.
If this crisis does not convince people that smoking is poison, I don't know what will.
Last edited by redguard57; 03-22-2020 at 01:26 AM..
Those who argue "it's not worth it to shut down the economy" are basically saying money is worth more than life. In 1918 they did not have that moral dilemma because antibiotics and ventilators hadn't been invented yet. Today we have a choice.
THIS**** And we also have an incompetent puppet of a president who is only out for himself and to a far lesser degree, his many mediocre offspring.
I’m having trouble wrapping my mind around this statement. Can you tell me how robust and resilient supply chains and the economy were back then?
I think it is actually the complexity and interconnectedness of our society that makes us more vulnerable. Back in 1918 most people had jobs that were not linked to global or national trade, whereas today this is not the case. In other words, the supply chains were shorter and less complex.
I do not have any exact figures for you, but I am guessing that in 1918, a lot more people were involved in farming and agriculture than today —- at least percentage-wise. When a pandemic comes through, it is easier to keep on farming, than it is to keep on working in the airline industry.
In fact, the industries hardest hit today — travel, tourism and hospitality were much, much less developed in 1918. Obviously, there were no airline employees at go out of business, but also they were many, many fewer restaurant employees. Most people ate at home most of the time. No Disney world, either etc. etc.
Today, our world is more complex, but we also have many, many more people in nonessential jobs.
Also, back in 1918, as another poster mentioned, they didn’t have a lot of the medical equipment and drugs we have today — the ventilators, the antivirals we’re experimenting with. I do not know for sure, but I am assuming that a larger percentage just died at home without ever visiting a hospital. So, they didn’t have the choice we have today.
Also, the disease was different. It is my understanding that people did not take weeks to die of the Spanish flu and maybe the incubation period was shorter too. So, the amount of time each individual city was affected was much, much shorter — a few weeks to a month. Philadelphia, one of the worst hit cities, was almost completely closed —- for a few weeks. Even today, you can close one city for a few weeks and not crash the nation’s economy.
Last edited by Jill_Schramm; 03-22-2020 at 05:04 AM..
It is worth a life. Those at risk should be shut it down to stay at home. Nursing homes and retirement homes need to take extra precautions. We can't shut down the world. This isn't the black plague. This kind of thing is going to happen every other year if this is the response.
What it needs to trigger is hospitals and ventilators being built. But after a couple weeks, things need to get moving. My company builds ventilators- let me just say, they are talking a 10X increase in production.
So the more people that get sick the better it is for your business. Because if it wasn’t for this CV19 we really wouldn’t have the huge demand for ventilators. It our hospital and medical care facilities are already pretty full and that was before this CV19 came up. I used to work on Hospital construction. I’ve done 4 hospitals. That’s one every 5 years. I’ve built more malls than hospitals.
People are all going to say we need more hospitals more medical care more rules on travel more this more than. And when it’s all over or minimized we will complain the cost is too much right now. Hey Bob we need to order another two stealth fighters. Write a check for two billion dollars will ya. As soon as the SARS or H1N1 was over people forgot all about them. Until the next pandemic showed up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations
Buying crap one doesn’t need isn’t relevant to my question. Absence of that doesn’t make a supply chain strong or more resilient and the same for the economy
Are you kidding man? The only reason you need this huge supply chain is to support the crap we’re buying. New whatever comes out....better buy one to be the first on the block with it. The supply chain was not as big back then because people had a set amount of money to buy things. If they didn’t they made do or went without. These days you want a $80,000 car. You literally walk in with no money run your credit and drive out.
Back then the economy was less reliant on outside influence. It was also more local. The more cogs in the workings the more prone to break down. People has to go “into town” or “the city” to get some things. Now....we order it online it shows up a5 the door no matter where you live or where the item was sent from half way around the world or across the country.
We are more sensitive to major disruption where people prior madecdo or bought cash. Imagine today your internet going diwn. People would lose their minds. I know people wh9 flip out if the package isn’t delivered on x day and it’s late.
Comparing a economy or disease from 100 years ago to today really makes no sense. Because it was a different time. Hell they used to have polio season.
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