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Old 03-24-2020, 02:44 PM
 
Location: It's in the name!
7,078 posts, read 9,529,255 times
Reputation: 3779

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Quote:
Originally Posted by maf763 View Post
A great depression like the 1930's is unlikely, mainly because of measures passed then like FDIC and Social Security. The short-term future may look more like 2008, but I think it's hard to draw a parallel. There have been growing cracks in the economic infrastructure underneath what was a strong economy like there was in 2008, but the 2008 recession was triggered by self-inflicted financial decisions. Now, we have had an external trigger. Whether that means recovery will be faster or slower, I have no idea. A case can be made both ways.
Until there is a vaccine, I think recovery will be slow. Until everyone is vaccinated, every attempt to go back to normal will create more infections. We can't have part of the population die off just so we can attend a sporting event or go clubbing. I think there will continue to be lockdowns until there is a vaccine. They may not be widespread, but wherever there is an outbreak, that city or town will be locked down.

Hard for an economy to get its footing under those conditions.
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:58 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,026 posts, read 7,186,391 times
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I understand locking down now and for the next month or two. But what I hear about this lasting until September or the end of 2020 is insane. That will be a great depression - we're basically shutting down 2/3rds of all jobs.

The human race did not shut down during the Spanish Flu or even the Bubonic Plague.

We need to be able to do more than sit in our homes and go to the grocery store.
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Old 03-24-2020, 03:22 PM
 
6,603 posts, read 4,229,641 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k374 View Post
Forbes is forecasting a possible Great Depression 2.0...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmau...t-a-recession/

I get his arguments but I feel it's going to be as bad as 2008 tops!! 2008 was pretty messed up so that is bad but Depression? I don't buy it.

I think a lot of people have forgotten how bad 2008 was, it was total carnage, people losing jobs and homes like flies!
In my opinion, the longer this goes on the greater the odds of a depression. Almost certainly will be worse than the 2008-2009 recession.
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Old 03-24-2020, 03:27 PM
 
Location: Beautiful Utah!
1,452 posts, read 1,073,307 times
Reputation: 4033
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
I understand locking down now and for the next month or two. But what I hear about this lasting until September or the end of 2020 is insane. That will be a great depression - we're basically shutting down 2/3rds of all jobs.

The human race did not shut down during the Spanish Flu or even the Bubonic Plague.

We need to be able to do more than sit in our homes and go to the grocery store.
That sadly seems to be the only plan I hear of at the moment. As bad as this virus is (yes we do need some form of action to contain it), people need jobs and income to survive. There seems to be no strategy beyond yelling "OMG STAY HOME!" at people.
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Old 03-24-2020, 03:41 PM
 
Location: Philadelphia (Center City)
946 posts, read 782,666 times
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If you believe history repeats in cycles, you'll be familiar with the Neil Howe's theory of changes in society based around a series of consecutive generations. We may be well into the Fourth Turning.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmau.../#5b0e884f48d3
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Old 03-24-2020, 03:57 PM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,624,395 times
Reputation: 14050
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
I understand locking down now and for the next month or two. But what I hear about this lasting until September or the end of 2020 is insane. That will be a great depression - we're basically shutting down 2/3rds of all jobs.

The human race did not shut down during the Spanish Flu or even the Bubonic Plague.

We need to be able to do more than sit in our homes and go to the grocery store.
Do you think Germany shut down in 1945? Japan? How many Russians were out of jobs....we know 25 or 30 million died, so it is likely those people weren't working. They were the backbone - the young and strong.

Of course, Russia never did very well. But it can be said that Germany came fully out quite quickly....10 years or so....looked it up. Yes, to get back to 1940 levels (after complete destruction by 1945) it took about a decade.

We have nothing to fear but feat itself. It is hard to imagine this thing being compared in any way to the flattening of Germany and the millions dead (per capita).
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Old 03-24-2020, 04:02 PM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,624,395 times
Reputation: 14050
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
I understand locking down now and for the next month or two. But what I hear about this lasting until September or the end of 2020 is insane. That will be a great depression - we're basically shutting down 2/3rds of all jobs.

The human race did not shut down during the Spanish Flu or even the Bubonic Plague.

We need to be able to do more than sit in our homes and go to the grocery store.
"As the death toll climbed, Gov. Wallace Edge and the state health board called for a statewide quarantine in early October 1918. Bars and saloons, churches, restaurants and theaters were all closed, with gatherings banned and travel discouraged. School closings were not mandatory, but most schools shuttered.

“This is the greatest emergency that has ever confronted New Jersey,” said Dr. Jacob C. Price, head of the state health board."

Actually, the smart people DID shut down during 1918 and that was largely responsible for ending the thing.

I'll listen to your opinion in 30 days but knocking something before you try it is ridiculous.

How long have you been isolated? I'm 3 weeks and 2 days in. Doing my part not to infect US.
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Old 03-24-2020, 04:11 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,026 posts, read 7,186,391 times
Reputation: 17121
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
"As the death toll climbed, Gov. Wallace Edge and the state health board called for a statewide quarantine in early October 1918. Bars and saloons, churches, restaurants and theaters were all closed, with gatherings banned and travel discouraged. School closings were not mandatory, but most schools shuttered.

“This is the greatest emergency that has ever confronted New Jersey,” said Dr. Jacob C. Price, head of the state health board."

Actually, the smart people DID shut down during 1918 and that was largely responsible for ending the thing.

I'll listen to your opinion in 30 days but knocking something before you try it is ridiculous.

How long have you been isolated? I'm 3 weeks and 2 days in. Doing my part not to infect US.
Like I said, I'm fine with it for the next month or two. But I'm hearing talk of stay in place orders going on until September. That's outrageous.
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Old 03-24-2020, 04:42 PM
 
5,428 posts, read 4,432,523 times
Reputation: 7263
First off, the title should be Great Depression 3.0. I lived through 2008 as a new grad trying to get a job. That was Great Depression 2.0.

This has felt worse for me than 2008.
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Old 03-24-2020, 04:56 PM
 
Location: Berwick, Penna.
16,214 posts, read 11,289,127 times
Reputation: 20827
For three generations now, America's young people have been fed the myth that the Great Depression immediately followed the 1929 stock market crash; the real story is far more complicated, but the Radicals over there in Left Field, and their statist allies have seen their lies exposed and their pipe dreams ravaged. This was the result of the common sense of a lot of us, but one man -- Donald Trump -- makes a convenient target, often through his own tendency to oversimplify and trivialize (which, of course, the Masters of Spin will sieze upon at every opportunity.

As a life-long libertarian, I've seen a number of the principles I hold dear dismissed by Trump's foot soldiers, and I want no part of a possible successive Presidency dominated by Pence and his Bible-thumpers. But dismaying as this scenario might be, it is far more open to mitigation and moderation than the sheer power-grab which is clearly the goal of the Extreme Left; as demonstrated by the actions of groups like ANTIFA. and their attempts to disrupt and threaten the personal lives of an occasional circus sideshow from the likes of Pat Robertson and Anita Bryant.

Last edited by 2nd trick op; 03-24-2020 at 05:14 PM..
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