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A lot of people are still unaffected... I know many of my friends who work in IT across various industries still have their jobs.
Many of them work in larger companies with good cash reserves. As earnings crater after Q2 we may see a round of layoffs catch up with these companies as well if things don't improve. However, I work for a smaller company and we are severely affected as our revenues have essentially gone to zero. 50% of our employees have already been laid off and the other half are at risk of collapse. The situation is grave.
Which is why I said it's a divide - some in bigger companies are shielded for now while the smaller companies are the first to be decimated.
What really hit me yesterday is that the rich and powerful have no plans to end this soon, and they will not. If they are going to keep this shut down in place until people stop dying from CV19, the shut down will last for years. And the really amazing thing is that most people dont care. They're perfectly happy to sit on their butt, and they dont care about the damage to the economy or other peoples lives, as long as they dont get the flu.
I think right now a lot of your outlook is going to depend on what industry you're in and how that industry can recover. On one hand, my company I think is perfectly positioned for surviving the pandemic and if I'm being honest, I'm starting to feel bullish on the prospects of it being a boon to what we do. Since we do business to business corporate videos, I think we're well positioned to assist companies in social distancing guidelines and providing marketing strategies that don't require in-person tours, meetings, training, etc. We got an inquiry yesterday that would be worth $100,000+ if we close the deal. I've lost about $60,000 in revenue already the last two months because of this pandemic, and May will I'm sure be another loss of an expected $40,000 or so, but some of that money can return later in the year (some of it can't, like a $20K event we were going to film, that money is gone forever -- they'll film their event next year maybe, sure, but they do every year, so already expected that).
On the other hand, I have a large chunk of money in 3 hotel projects. Two aren't open yet, one opens later this year, and the other not for years. Needless to say, I'm concerned about those investments, especially the two that will be open this year. I think that industry will be hit very hard for a long time to come. So if you look at what industries people have jobs, I envy someone who can do IT from home for instance, or a Website designer who works freelance for themselves and has a nice client base, or a number of other jobs where the people may be minimally affected. Anyone who works in travel and hospitality, or theme parks and movie theaters, or sports and entertainment, I worry about what those industries look like for the next year.
I do think you'll see the same situation you really see from any other recession, but magnified in strange ways. The winners are going to come out of this well positioned to make a killing for years to come. If many hotels don't survive, the ones that do survive will have higher occupancies because of it. If many movie theaters shut down, the survivors will have more tickets sold in the future. Same with restaurants. Ultimately Coronavirus won't just thin the herd in human terms, but it will do so with companies, too, and both are sad because when companies die, it means people losing their jobs permanently and who knows when those jobs will return? The same people who have good jobs at hotel companies and high end restaurants are the type of people who once a year take their kids to Disneyland or go on a vacation across the country or come here to gamble in Las Vegas. Now those job losses hurt other industries by cutting into money that could be spent in other parts of the economy. It's all interconnected. To my mind, Wall Street hasn't "gotten it" this time around. Usually that's the smartest group of people economically, and yet the markets stubbornly trudge on like this is some minor speed bump. I HOPE they're right, but I am not sure how it will be. Even with the vastly lowered mortality risk of the virus we now know, it's more about public perception than facts. If one Chipotle gets busted for e.coli in Tennessee, someone will decide in California not to go there anymore. It doesn't have to be rational, and while it may not be rational for young healthy people to avoid doing anything in public for the next year, that doesn't mean they won't do it and just sit home instead.
Not quite true. You're going to see(and it is already happening) people who aren't in service industry jobs get laid off.
For example school systems and city workers(libraries for example) they're not going to keep paying people who aren't working for ever. You don't as many teachers, teaching assistants, front office, etc. They will let people go.
Other sectors will follow.
While you have point that some will be harder, EVERYONE is going to take a hit with this with the exception of maybe the 1%.
Now how did I know this weeks ago now it is true. Not happy about it, but is amazes me that some thought it was just service industry jobs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by k374
A lot of people are still unaffected... I know many of my friends who work in IT across various industries still have their jobs.
Many of them work in larger companies with good cash reserves. As earnings crater after Q2 we may see a round of layoffs catch up with these companies as well if things don't improve. However, I work for a smaller company and we are severely affected as our revenues have essentially gone to zero. 50% of our employees have already been laid off and the other half are at risk of collapse. The situation is grave.
Which is why I said it's a divide - some in bigger companies are shielded for now while the smaller companies are the first to be decimated.
Just because they aren't impacted right now, this week doesn't mean they won't be in the coming weeks or months, I really don't think you have a handle on how things work.
You keep talking about divide. Well this country has been divided for years and it has become quite hateful. People wishing ill will and death on strangers who have a different political viewpoint, the media doing their level best to stir up a racial divide.
Well it worked, while so many spent so much time and energy hating some of their fellow Americans because they looked different or voted different, our economy which has been a house of cards for those who were paying attention is now collapsed.
There is a virus, and it can make you very sick and in some small cases die. But do a little research. Ask yourself how come almost the whole nation comes to a grinding halt, putting millions of people out of work that as of now has (if you can believe the numbers as every death is being listed at COVID 19) 50,000n deaths in a country of 350 million. Doesn't quite add up.
There is a virus, but it was an excuse used by the powers that be to shift the blame off them where it belongs for selling out the American people for the last several years.
itanjdiQUOTE=augiedogie;57930960]What really hit me yesterday is that the rich and powerful have no plans to end this soon, and they will not. If they are going to keep this shut down in place until people stop dying from CV19, the shut down will last for years. And the really amazing thing is that most people dont care. They're perfectly happy to sit on their butt, and they dont care about the damage to the economy or other peoples lives, as long as they dont get the flu.[/quote]
Augie, the virus was used for something much darker. It does exist, but not like it has been made out to be. A virus is invisible, the people who let this happen aren't.
That's why they don't care, just need to keep the sheep in their place and see how much they're willing to take before civil unrest starts.
What really hit me yesterday is that the rich and powerful have no plans to end this soon, and they will not. If they are going to keep this shut down in place until people stop dying from CV19, the shut down will last for years. And the really amazing thing is that most people dont care. They're perfectly happy to sit on their butt, and they dont care about the damage to the economy or other peoples lives, as long as they dont get the flu.
So you have all the data that shows that things are dramatically improving and we should open everything up immediately? I haven't seen sources that have showed this at all.
What really hit me yesterday is that the rich and powerful have no plans to end this soon, and they will not. If they are going to keep this shut down in place until people stop dying from CV19, the shut down will last for years. And the really amazing thing is that most people dont care. They're perfectly happy to sit on their butt, and they dont care about the damage to the economy or other peoples lives, as long as they dont get the flu.
Agreed, most folks are simply too ignorant and oblivious to know the rich will use this opportunity to get richer, furthering the wealth and income gap among many Americans. Most are happy with their $600 unemployment and $1200 stimulus while the Warren Buffett’s of America are buying up Southwestern Airlines and Netflix stock.
Atleast Sweden and South Korea are smart enough to get back to work.
This virus will take herd immunity to beat, not hiding in the basement and waiting for a test or vaccine while hoping the land lord doesn’t need rent for the next 12 months.
I see a divide forming into 2 distinct groups that are affected by this pandemic differently...
The first group are those that work for cash rich companies, companies that received government bailouts and companies in essential industries that can afford NOT to layoff their staff - FANG companies, health/auto insurance, some tech companies, some big banks (example - Bank of America whose CEO has promised no layoffs).
Also included in the first group are those that invested massively in the last run up and have accumulated tons of wealth in real estate and stocks. Even though stocks have gone down they are still massively above where they started from the inception of the bull run. This offers some protection if the market does not recover for the next 10-15 years.
The second group is of course those that are not in the first, service industry including restaurants, entertainment, sports... those that had no money to invest in 2009 and came into the bull run much later, those that bought houses recently at nosebleed prices, those that invested in equities heavily during the peak.
While the first group is probably going to be OK the second group is probably going to struggle... the lack of jobs is going to linger on, they will not have any money to take advantage of lower equity prices, they will not be able to hang on to their homes...it's going to be ugly for the second group.
For every winner there is a loser I guess.
My company is hardly cash rich, but essential. Only now, over a month in, is our business slowing.
Our revenue stream is basically gone. Supposedly, we're better capitalized than similar organizations, but who knows. With few COVID cases, the revenue stream gone, and clinical overstaffing (this sounds insane during a pandemic at first blush, but there are far fewer people presenting to the hospitals with routine issues or scheduled procedures), layoffs somewhere are likely to happen.
If that happens here among the white collar staff, that's a death knell to any white collar presence in this area, as the hospital system is by far the biggest employer of those types of people.
Agreed, most folks are simply too ignorant and oblivious to know the rich will use this opportunity to get richer, furthering the wealth and income gap among many Americans. Most are happy with their $600 unemployment and $1200 stimulus while the Warren Buffett’s of America are buying up Southwestern Airlines and Netflix stock.
Atleast Sweden and South Korea are smart enough to get back to work.
This virus will take herd immunity to beat, not hiding in the basement and waiting for a test or vaccine while hoping the land lord doesn’t need rent for the next 12 months.
Relying on herd immunity without mandating face coverings in combination with increased testing would result in an exponential increase in deaths. Tough economic times for many until a vaccine is developed, tested, and approved. This is the extreme hazard the US has for relying on consumer spending for 2/3 of the economy.
Agreed, most folks are simply too ignorant and oblivious to know the rich will use this opportunity to get richer, furthering the wealth and income gap among many Americans. Most are happy with their $600 unemployment and $1200 stimulus while the Warren Buffett’s of America are buying up Southwestern Airlines and Netflix stock.
Atleast Sweden and South Korea are smart enough to get back to work.
This virus will take herd immunity to beat, not hiding in the basement and waiting for a test or vaccine while hoping the land lord doesn’t need rent for the next 12 months.
I would like to know how the rich get richer under this quarantined environment. In my case I see a great buy low opportunity for stocks, but until we all get back to work those anticipated gains won't come to fruition.
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