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I'm in my mid-30s and this feels worse than 2008. 9/11, which occurred in my freshman year of college, was a walk in the park compared to this. I'll admit that I was isolated from the economic effects post 9/11 due to being so early in college.
Same here, 37 so I was a freshman during 9/11. It felt very strange, I have always had the absolute worst luck with these damn things it’s unbelievable to me. I had moved to LA just 2 weeks before 9/11 to start college, first time all on my own, and I was handling it poorly. I was already depressed, it was my 3rd choice school, and I’ll be the first to say I wasn’t a mature 18 in that way. I was a very mature in the sense I never partied, I always focused on my studies and had almost straight A’s, I had even written a book and landed an agent in NYC. But I had zero life skills whatsoever, I was like a fish out of water trying to learn how to do my own laundry and basic things lol.
Then in 2008, guess what? I had just moved to LA a year earlier (again), after having went to school back closer to home, and my mom had died in 2006 so again I was in a new city in my first place I owned my own place, a modest condo. Now here we are in 2020, just moved to Las Vegas 7 months ago. It’s like every time I leave to move to a new city some cataclysmic event just must occur within 2 weeks to 18 months just for fun lol.
I don’t like to be doom and gloom, but I’m somewhere between thinking this will be the new worst recession ever and that it’ll be an actual depression. I’m hoping that’s wrong. If it’s a two year downtown but we can get everything back on track by that time, it’ll be ok. But if we have trouble restarting businesses because of a second wave, and if we have to wait until there’s a vaccine, it’s going to be brutal. Too many businesses will have failed, civil unrest will be high, and we’ll be left picking up the pieces.
All of this because of a virus that kills 0.67% of people it infects with fully half of those infected reporting no symptoms. Gosh, imagine a real virus emerged that wasn’t just a strong flu!
I'm in my mid-30s and this feels worse than 2008. 9/11, which occurred in my freshman year of college, was a walk in the park compared to this. I'll admit that I was isolated from the economic effects post 9/11 due to being so early in college.
Nothing happening now has any parallel in American history except perhaps the Spanish Flu, but the world was in the middle of a great war then, and America had not squandered its national treasure.
Same here, 37 so I was a freshman during 9/11. It felt very strange, I have always had the absolute worst luck with these damn things it’s unbelievable to me. I had moved to LA just 2 weeks before 9/11 to start college, first time all on my own, and I was handling it poorly. I was already depressed, it was my 3rd choice school, and I’ll be the first to say I wasn’t a mature 18 in that way. I was a very mature in the sense I never partied, I always focused on my studies and had almost straight A’s, I had even written a book and landed an agent in NYC. But I had zero life skills whatsoever, I was like a fish out of water trying to learn how to do my own laundry and basic things lol.
Then in 2008, guess what? I had just moved to LA a year earlier (again), after having went to school back closer to home, and my mom had died in 2006 so again I was in a new city in my first place I owned my own place, a modest condo. Now here we are in 2020, just moved to Las Vegas 7 months ago. It’s like every time I leave to move to a new city some cataclysmic event just must occur within 2 weeks to 18 months just for fun lol.
I don’t like to be doom and gloom, but I’m somewhere between thinking this will be the new worst recession ever and that it’ll be an actual depression. I’m hoping that’s wrong. If it’s a two year downtown but we can get everything back on track by that time, it’ll be ok. But if we have trouble restarting businesses because of a second wave, and if we have to wait until there’s a vaccine, it’s going to be brutal. Too many businesses will have failed, civil unrest will be high, and we’ll be left picking up the pieces.
All of this because of a virus that kills 0.67% of people it infects with fully half of those infected reporting no symptoms. Gosh, imagine a real virus emerged that wasn’t just a strong flu!
It is a "real" virus and it's worse than the flu, but otherwise I agree in that we've collectively sacrificed an inconceivable amount of wealth and prosperity for a (objectively speaking) highly survivable disease.
Heck, all the major grocery stores are going to be having temperature checks and limiting the number in the store at one time by next week. This will go on for 2 months or more. The reality of this thing is starting to set in a little bit.
At our plant which is "essential" because they make medical products, all the same stuff is being done. It's a preview of what's coming to every wal-mart and local grocer. There are posts on GLP saying wal-mart is closing one entrance and only going to have one open, with a temperature check upon entering, and perhaps limiting non-essential purchases.
What's going to happen with the economy is either half of corporations going bankrupt or a major inflationary event from the debt creation, so I suggest loading up while cash is king on platinum, bitcoin, and stocks in the next couple of weeks. The selloff and resumption of new lows should continue next week... once the dow is under 18K, start to nibble... DCA down to 15K or wherever it gets too.
I'm a contrarian, I guess. I see this emergency blowing over in a few weeks, and the economy will recover by year's end. The stock markets will end in the green.
Why? Because anti-virals are in the works that will pretty much cure Covid19 and allow people to resume their lives. It's that simple. The markets will reflect this reality very soon.
The vaccines will arrive in early 2021, and will prevent another wave of epidemic. 2021 will be a banner year as the economy makes up for lost time.
There will be a few permanent changes, though: work-from-home will be more widespread. Once people get a taste of it, some will not want to go back to commuting. The roads will be less busy at rush hour, less gasoline consumed, fewer accidents, people will have more leisure time.
I'm an optimist. Let's revisit this thread in one year and see who turns out to be right
All of this because of a virus that kills 0.67% of people it infects with fully half of those infected reporting no symptoms. Gosh, imagine a real virus emerged that wasn’t just a strong flu!
Someone I love dearly is in the ICU with this right now. The terms of service of this site prevent me from saying how I really feel about people with this attitude at this point.
I'm a contrarian, I guess. I see this emergency blowing over in a few weeks, and the economy will recover by year's end. The stock markets will end in the green.
Why? Because anti-virals are in the works that will pretty much cure Covid19 and allow people to resume their lives. It's that simple. The markets will reflect this reality very soon.
The vaccines will arrive in early 2021, and will prevent another wave of epidemic. 2021 will be a banner year as the economy makes up for lost time.
There will be a few permanent changes, though: work-from-home will be more widespread. Once people get a taste of it, some will not want to go back to commuting. The roads will be less busy at rush hour, less gasoline consumed, fewer accidents, people will have more leisure time.
I'm an optimist. Let's revisit this thread in one year and see who turns out to be right
I’m with you. Remember, having people sacred outta their wits allows the government to take away your civil liberties. Some of you people are lapdogs already. **** this.
I'm a contrarian, I guess. I see this emergency blowing over in a few weeks, and the economy will recover by year's end. The stock markets will end in the green.
Why? Because anti-virals are in the works that will pretty much cure Covid19 and allow people to resume their lives. It's that simple. The markets will reflect this reality very soon.
The vaccines will arrive in early 2021, and will prevent another wave of epidemic. 2021 will be a banner year as the economy makes up for lost time.
There will be a few permanent changes, though: work-from-home will be more widespread. Once people get a taste of it, some will not want to go back to commuting. The roads will be less busy at rush hour, less gasoline consumed, fewer accidents, people will have more leisure time.
I'm an optimist. Let's revisit this thread in one year and see who turns out to be right
I might be an optimist, but if I want the market to crash so I can pick up stocks at fire sale prices, I'm certainly not going to tell anyone about it. In any case by the time all these get approval the damage will be done. The damage to the economy is now. I have no doubt there will be a recovery but not before the stock market bottoms out lower and finds a base there.. it's not going to shoot back up to levels that were already bubble levels and a serious bubble at that. I believe stocks may end the year where they are at now, after a period of being 20-30% lower and having a period of price discovery. February highs are out of the question. Technically speaking the broad market is still overvalued at current levels if you analyze the metrics, though plenty of individual stocks are cheap.
Also I continue to see this 1% fatality level being thrown around but fatality levels are a lagging indicator.. it's much higher than 1%. Really look at the numbers. I don't agree with the way everyone has shut everything down, but I'm rolling with it because it's frankly profitable for me I guess, with 6 figures of cash on the sidelines waiting to nibble.
LO this cartoon is funny....hopefully it's not a prediction.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RJ312
The country was not shut down like this after 9/11 or ever during The Great Depression. This is bad.
Yes, truly bad and it makes you wonder what's "really behind it."
Quote:
Originally Posted by aileesic
I wasn't living during the Great Depression but have been here since JFK's assassination and yes, I cannot remember anything like this, ever. Not the riots, Watergate, and 9/11 did not shut down the entire country, end so many businesses, or throw almost everyone out of physical jobs into suddenly working at home.
I still say working at home isn't all that bad of a thing. Online school can be a good thing as well.
Yet and still, this is bad.
Hopefully, people will begin to question what's really happening. Because the original narrative is starting not to make sense for such drastic measures. They're crashing the economy and using the coronavirus as a cover...IMHO. Not that the virus isn't real but as they say "never let a good crisis go to waste."
Quote:
Originally Posted by stockwiz
Heck, all the major grocery stores are going to be having temperature checks and limiting the number in the store at one time by next week. This will go on for 2 months or more. The reality of this thing is starting to set in a little bit.
At our plant which is "essential" because they make medical products, all the same stuff is being done. It's a preview of what's coming to every wal-mart and local grocer. There are posts on GLP saying wal-mart is closing one entrance and only going to have one open, with a temperature check upon entering, and perhaps limiting non-essential purchases.
What's going to happen with the economy is either half of corporations going bankrupt or a major inflationary event from the debt creation, so I suggest loading up while cash is king on platinum, bitcoin, and stocks in the next couple of weeks. The selloff and resumption of new lows should continue next week... once the dow is under 18K, start to nibble... DCA down to 15K or wherever it gets too.
Don't forget about pms...precious metals/gold and silver....if you can still get them. It's been hard to buy them the last few weeks. Gold is one of the best investments one can make at this time. That's why the world's largest banks, many countries are buying it or repatriating it from US vaults (which they are having a hard time getting), and wealthy individuals, and others who can afford it are hoarding it. They see the "writing on the wall" so to speak.
Last edited by Propop; 04-04-2020 at 02:29 AM..
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In any case by the time all these get approval the damage will be done. The damage to the economy is now. I have no doubt there will be a recovery but not before the stock market bottoms out lower and finds a base there.. it's not going to shoot back up to levels that were already bubble levels and a serious bubble at that. I believe stocks may end the year where they are at now, after a period of being 20-30% lower and having a period of price discovery. February highs are out of the question. Technically speaking the broad market is still overvalued at current levels if you analyze the metrics, though plenty of individual stocks are cheap.
