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I think it depends on 1-what are we talking about, size of small town? and 2-what type of business? This is why some of us are doing what we can to support the small businesses.
I think it will look a lot brighter when people start going out and companies, large or small can open back up again. Those days look like they are coming in the near future for, at least some regions of the country.
Heading to The Rail tomorrow for some take-out pizza for dinner. I'd have to move if they shut down. The only good pizza I've had in the NWA area, lol.
Walmart, Tyson, and JB Hunt. Not really any of those.
All of which started from southern/midwestern roots and are in the rare category of those who didn't relocate national HQ to a financial-center city.
As I said, there are examples. Just not many and I can't see many new ones arising. Just as no magical new industry is likely to hire the workforce of olden days, new F500s aren't going to rise from and stick to rural roots.
Being dependent upon a manufacturing plant making piston seals is not a viable long-term strategy.
EVs don't use piston seals.
And that's why they trail plumes of smoke.
Nearly all companies doing such specialized work were in the orbit of the primary industry — the ring of cities around Detroit, for example, which were once small towns on the sunrise line between the primary market and a wealth of relatively inexpensive workers. Another situation unlikely to recur.
I don’t see any young educated person staying in a small community with little hope of employment, pay and advancement opportunities. Small towns have been dying for many years, I see the small shop owners in this type of community as a last-ditch effort by the older generation to maintain a minimal existence.
Small town America was not in good shape before COVID-19 arrived.
The whole Coronavirus crisis from an economic standpoint has wiped out the weak first. Weak companies were already doing layoffs during the February 15 - March 15 time frame.
It wouldn't be surprising if Coronavirus wiped out something already in a precarious position before it arrived.
I'm wondering about my ex town of Moab, Utah. Strictly tourism based on the national parks, the Colorado River, jeeping and mountain biking. It had been growing by leaps and bounds. About 2/3 of its tourism was Europeans.
Thoughts?
I lived over in Grand Junction for 15 years and we’d often pass through Moab on our way to AZ. Moab and Junction both play a tourism angle, but it seemed Junction had more retirees and Moab catered to a younger crowd. Both cities lacked industry, yet both saw big growth from 2000-2020. I often joked with my wife that the illegal drug trade was probably 20% of Junction’s economy, maybe something similar can explain the growth in Moab?
I lived over in Grand Junction for 15 years and we’d often pass through Moab on our way to AZ. Moab and Junction both play a tourism angle, but it seemed Junction had more retirees and Moab catered to a younger crowd. Both cities lacked industry, yet both saw big growth from 2000-2020. I often joked with my wife that the illegal drug trade was probably 20% of Junction’s economy, maybe something similar can explain the growth in Moab?
It's notable that Grand Junction has been just about the only city in Colorado to remain somewhat economically depressed in these boom times.
I think it will be the larger metro cities that will be most devastated by the economic effects, Cincinnati, OH is about 9 miles from my house, they have the Reds and Bengals, the city paid for big brand new stadiums for both teams not long ago, they were just talking about if the Reds not play in front of fans this season, it will DESTROY the local economy by itself, due to the loss of direct and indirect revenue, hotels and restaurants, bars, clubs, etc all the way down to security, cleaning, maintenance etc for the stadiums.
Then you have to consider nearly all the big retail shopping centers have been closed down over a month now, when you combine EVERYTHING together and all the losses in revenue...as Ive said before...there is just NO way in hell the economy can survive this, (I think we passed that threshold weeks ago actually).
People are just not aware of how bad the economy is at the moment, because we are still in the middle of this pandemic and sort of in a 'limbo period', govts are doing all they can to maintain order and control right now.
People are just not aware of how bad the economy is at the moment...
At the moment. Yes.
This may sound odd from someone who relentlessly promotes the need for radical economic change and believes it's being forced on us on a schedule advanced by this crisis... but I think recovery at the level of the average person is going to come pretty quickly.
Yes, we've "lost" a staggering number of jobs and that's at the core of the economic toll.
But these jobs are not "lost" in the sense that the mill closed down and Podunk has no others for the workers. Not "lost" because Ford totally automated and doesn't need assembly line monkeys any more. Only "lost" because hundreds of thousands of businesses are shuttered.
There will be losses. There will be businesses (especially smaller restaurants and the like) that may never reopen. But the vast majority of those jobs will return in a matter of weeks — maybe tens of weeks, but weeks. And more will return and recover by year's end. At a pay-the-mortgage, feed-the-kids level, the crisis will be over, and I predict this will happen so fast it will be breathtaking.
Damage up the chain? Well, so it's a bad time for investments and billionaires. Boo hoo.
No, we aren't going to come through this without scars at every level. But we don't suddenly have ten million permanently unemployed, either. We just have a crappy system for managing suspension of employment and trade, and we'll put it all back together quite soon.
ETA: It would be nice to think we might learn something from this warning shot. <cue laugh track>
Last edited by Therblig; 04-18-2020 at 11:38 AM..
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