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Old 04-20-2020, 03:09 PM
 
Location: U.S.A., Earth
4,861 posts, read 3,256,931 times
Reputation: 4606

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
Then explain the higher death percentages in Italy? On top of that lots of red states have large black populations. Arkansas would be one example. Hypertension might be the factor. Its higher among black people and a big risk factor for the virus.

I would say it comes down to crowded conditions and being dependent on public transportation. Up until about 100 years ago people in rural areas lived 7 years longer than those in cities. Cities were considered cesspools of disease. Now covid-19 is forcing people to reconsider city life and its new dangers.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/am...xt/ar-BB12RZrJ

Blue cities have been pushing public transportation options for decades and ironically that has probably been a big factor especially in the areas surrounding NYC for all the hot spots in that part of the country.
Italy initially treated social distancing as a joke. Young people were going out and partying like some "running with the bulls" type thrill. One politician went to a locality where known coronavirus hotspots were. Old people were gathering together for the social pizza and coffee, with the mentality that "we're stronger than this virus".


Quote:
Originally Posted by aileesic View Post
The claim is the red states and all conservatives are pure of thought and heart, therefore they cannot catch diseases as do blue states and liberals.
Don't know their political affiliations, but you do have church goers who tell naysayers that "they're covered in the blood of Jesus", so.. that protects them

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UN3gAHQLEoM
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Old 04-20-2020, 04:02 PM
 
6,933 posts, read 3,133,991 times
Reputation: 21012
Quote:
Originally Posted by aileesic View Post
The claim is the red states and all conservatives are pure of thought and heart, therefore they cannot catch diseases as do blue states and liberals.

My word. Some ugly and lazy stereotyping there. Just because some enterprising film crew managed to find a bunch of Bible-beating knuckle-draggers, don't tar us all with the same damned brush.

It has a great deal more to do with the fact there are completely different conditions in play that affect the overall spread of the disease.

New York City has a population density of 27,788.2 per square mile. That makes that metro area a gigantic Petri dish for the spread of the disease, no matter how draconian the measures are--and no matter how conscientiously they are followed.
Maryland? 618.
New Jersey? 1218.

Meanwhile, once you get into the South, you have a completely different situation:

Tennessee? 160.
Georgia? 177.
Alabama? 95.

In other words, simply living in those states in effect act as a kind of social distancing, especially once you get outside the metro areas. Even Georgia has a density roughly 0.6% that of New York City.

It certainly doesn't mean that we don't take measures seriously. In my city, most wear masks, most are working from homes, and the roads are pretty much deserted. So with those measures being undertaken, that means that with the institution of measures, the potential of those states to see virulent spread are lower. Not non-existent. Just lower.

That's why Tennessee is projected to see a total of 231 deaths from Covid-19 as of today. Georgia, 1,360. Alabama, 295. And those numbers have been revised downward almost daily. Healthcare systems in those states are nowhere close to approaching capacity even at peak need in terms of hospital beds, ICUs, or ventilator use. What's more, we're seeing projected deaths hit near the total on May 1, with very few deaths anticipated after May 10.

In comparison, New York is anticipated to have 21,000 deaths. Maryland, 914. New Jersey, 6,952.

So assuming that reasonable precautions are still undertaken and the situation is carefully monitored, why should a Tennessee or Alabama have to employ the same stringent measures as a New York or a Maryland? Especially when we've passed what is projected as the peak time for the disease?

Last edited by MinivanDriver; 04-20-2020 at 04:38 PM..
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Old 04-20-2020, 04:29 PM
 
21,021 posts, read 15,245,998 times
Reputation: 16280
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
I read your post. Bringing up a yearly total that assumes that it is not seasonal and that it will continue unabated the entire year is ridiculous. It just spreads fear unnecessarily.
Well if you read it you would also know that I said “if it’s seasonal that’s one thing” and then annualized the figures. It’s more than one scenario in my post clearly but you are ignoring it.

Here are some facts for you

1. No one knows if its seasonal
2. 40k+ deaths in 7 weeks is a lot even if it’s “seasonal”
3. Social Distancing lowered the number of infections and thereby deaths and without it annualized projections would be higher
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Old 04-20-2020, 06:10 PM
 
21,021 posts, read 15,245,998 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
Well if you read it you would also know that I said “if it’s seasonal that’s one thing” and then annualized the figures. It’s more than one scenario in my post clearly but you are ignoring it.

Here are some facts for you

1. No one knows if its seasonal
2. 40k+ deaths in 7 weeks is a lot even if it’s “seasonal”
3. Social Distancing lowered the number of infections and thereby deaths and without it annualized projections would be higher

I should add a fourth line. I know you feel that taking the total number of deaths over 7 weeks and annualizing it is a bit much but you also have to accept that the growth rate of the deaths over the last 7 weeks hasn’t been flat either. It would be one thing if we averaged 5k deaths a week but that’s far from accurate.

You saying is just spreads fear unnecessarily is simply your opinion. Neither you or I are qualified to decide what’s necessary
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Old 04-20-2020, 06:47 PM
 
8,901 posts, read 2,469,639 times
Reputation: 5781
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
Well if you read it you would also know that I said “if it’s seasonal that’s one thing” and then annualized the figures. It’s more than one scenario in my post clearly but you are ignoring it.

Here are some facts for you

1. No one knows if its seasonal
You would expect as the new cases fall that deaths will also. So to multiply out the current deaths to 52 weeks is sensationalism. Whether it is seasonal or not those numbers are probably way too high.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
2. 40k+ deaths in 7 weeks is a lot even if it’s “seasonal”
I agree

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
3. Social Distancing lowered the number of infections and thereby deaths and without it annualized projections would be higher
Social distancing helped. Whether or not lock downs through most of the country equally is up for debate.
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Old 04-20-2020, 06:53 PM
 
8,901 posts, read 2,469,639 times
Reputation: 5781
Quote:
Originally Posted by ackmondual View Post
Italy initially treated social distancing as a joke. Young people were going out and partying like some "running with the bulls" type thrill. One politician went to a locality where known coronavirus hotspots were. Old people were gathering together for the social pizza and coffee, with the mentality that "we're stronger than this virus".
Clearly they were wrong. Is it because of them that Italy got hit hard? Or was it the demographics that would have caused it to do what it did regardless?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ackmondual View Post
Don't know their political affiliations, but you do have church goers who tell naysayers that "they're covered in the blood of Jesus", so.. that protects them

There are black churches including one in Baltimore who also tried to stay open. I don't think ignorance has a politcal preference.

Last edited by Oklazona Bound; 04-20-2020 at 07:38 PM..
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Old 04-20-2020, 08:21 PM
 
21,021 posts, read 15,245,998 times
Reputation: 16280
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
You would expect as the new cases fall that deaths will also. So to multiply out the current deaths to 52 weeks is sensationalism. Whether it is seasonal or not those numbers are probably way too high.
If the number of new cases falls week by week one has to determine why. Is it the virus just simply slowing or was it social distancing that’s now about to lift? Again sensationalism is your opinion and no one knows what the numbers will be. What’s silly is the folks whom simply say oh it’s like the common flu


Quote:
Social distancing helped. Whether or not lock downs through most of the country equally is up for debate.
Social distancing helped no matter how it’s sliced. Without it there would be more deaths without question and so again back to projections, how do you project future mortality of a virus when you shut everything down and are about to reopen? You don’t know, I don’t know but calling something sensationalism just because you don’t agree is lazy at best. More than 40,000 deaths in 7 weeks time within the US with extraordinary measures nearly country wide to distance ourselves from one another and shut damn near everything down is worthy of being worrisome
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Old 04-20-2020, 08:24 PM
 
10,477 posts, read 11,113,022 times
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Are there also some states where there are no stay-at-home orders at all, neither a statewide nor locally? There are five of those

North Dakota - Doug Burgum Since 2016 -Republican Party.
South Dakota - Kristi Lynn Noem Since 2019 -Republican Party.
Nebraska - John Peter Ricketts Since 2015 -Republican Party.
Arkansas - Asa Hutchinson Since 2015 -Republican Party.
Iowa - Kim Reynolds Since 2017 -Republican Party.

But it might just be a coincidence. The top 10 hardest-hit states by the virus have 9 Democratic governors and 1 Republican

Deaths per million
  1. 712.9 New York - Andrew Cuomo Democratic
  2. 473.1 New Jersey - Phil Murphy Democratic
  3. 304.6 Connecticut - Ned Lamont Democratic
  4. 278.8 Louisiana - John Bel Edwards Democratic
  5. 245.5 Massachusetts - Charlie Baker Republican
  6. 239.4 Michigan - Gretchen Whitmer Democratic
  7. 141.6 Rhode Island - Gina Raimondo Democratic
  8. 136.0 Washington, D.C. - Muriel Bowser Democratic
  9. 101.8 Illinois - J. B. Pritzker Democratic
  10. 86.9 Pennsylvania Tom Wolf Democratic
  11. 83.5 Indiana
  12. 81.9 Washington
  13. 80.4 Maryland
  14. 71.4 Colorado
  15. 68.8 Delaware
  16. 64.7 Georgia
  17. 60.9 Vermont
  18. 53.4 Mississippi
  19. 50.3 Nevada
  20. 40.3 Ohio
  21. 36.2 Wisconsin
  22. 35.6 Florida
  23. 35.4 Oklahoma
  24. 32.5 Virginia
  25. 32.2 Kentucky
  26. 31.6 Kansas
  27. 28.5 Missouri ----------- lockdowns in cities
  28. 27.9 New Hampshire
  29. 27.1 California
  30. 25.3 Maine
  31. 25.3 Arizona
  32. 24.6 Idaho
  33. 24.3 New Mexico
  34. 23.8 Iowa
  35. 23.8 Minnesota
  36. 23.1 South Carolina
  37. 23.0 Alabama
  38. 21.2 Tennessee
  39. 17.1 Oregon
  40. 16.5 Texas
  41. 16.4 North Carolina
  42. 14.5 Nebraska
  43. 13.1 North Dakota
  44. 12.6 Arkansas
  45. 12.3 Alaska
  46. 10.0 West Virginia
  47. 9.4 Montana
  48. 8.4 Utah
  49. 7.9 South Dakota
  50. 7.1 Hawaii
  51. 3.5 Wyoming
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Old 04-20-2020, 08:30 PM
 
21,021 posts, read 15,245,998 times
Reputation: 16280
Population density should be a bare min data overlay. Higher density and things likely highly used mass transit, tourism etc will all increase exposure
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Old 04-20-2020, 08:33 PM
 
7,401 posts, read 2,754,895 times
Reputation: 9727
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
The problem with your statement is the virus had to be brought into those rural communities. The question is how did it get there.

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/...hs/2974054001/

Two simple reasons both involving cities:

The county set up a task force that among other issues has explored why the numbers may be so high. Some theories include the fact that many Franklin residents travel to Indianapolis or Cincinnati for work or entertainment, said Jason Lovins, the public information officer for the county’s COVID task force.
Other area health officials have traced the source for at least some of the initial cases. Some people who work for businesses in the area had traveled and when they returned fell ill, Ripley County Health Officer Dr. David Welsh said.

The above proves my point, which is that rural areas do not have an edge against the virus. Interesting that Mr. Lovins and Dr. Welsh only blame outsiders or people who commute out of the area. No mention was made how well the locals are complying with mask-wearing, social distance or stay-at-home.
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