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Old 04-21-2020, 01:02 PM
 
20,921 posts, read 15,204,137 times
Reputation: 16214

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
You posted the numbers but would not take responsibility for it.
Please go back to my post again because I post more than just the annualized figures. I said explicitly “ if it’s seasonal that’s one thing” and then posted annualized figures. Please stop pretending for the sake of your argument that I only discussed annualized figures. A bit disingenuous on your part from the start


Quote:
Social distancing helped. As did not allowing large gatherings. Did not allowing someone to go to work who would have followed social distancing just because whatever industry they were in is not deemed essential save lots of lives? There are doubts about that
No there isn’t any doubt that the shutdown of workers limited the spread. To say otherwise is asinine. If I followed social distancing everywhere other than work and say maybe the grocery store think of the expansive exposure. That’s only if everyone of your co-workers actually participate in social distancing outside of work. To think the work shutdown hasn’t limited the spread is ludicrous at best

Quote:
. That is part of why I started this thread. The numbers indicate there are other factors more important. Like dense populations or high risk people. There is nothing to say that low risk people in lightly populated areas who do proper social distancing add much to the numbers. However in banning economic activity, the economic damage is 100% certain.
You aren’t trying to combine economic issues with health issues and they don’t actually combine. Social distancing has limited the spread and you’ve already agreed to that. The economic shutdown has without any doubt strengthened the social distancing and thus the spread and resulting deaths. I’m not sure how you could argue against that


Quote:
You contribute to the chatter, the white noise of negativity. I did not say you were successful at scaring anyone, only you attempted to do so. There are lots of people reading this sort of thing that are unstable, depressed, mentally ill. It does not take much to push them over the edge. This sort of sensationalism can cause deaths. One needs to choose their words responsibly.
I didn’t attempt to scare anyone. You don’t know what the projections are, no one does. People are downplaying the current death rate and it’s no joke. Annualizing the number pulls it into prospective for those downplaying it. You could say that all those that are unstable as you put it could be equally influenced by your post to think it’s no big deal or that it’s entirely overplayed. Who’s sensationalizing? Probably the person screaming others are doing it, sir
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Old 04-21-2020, 02:33 PM
 
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
6,303 posts, read 2,800,735 times
Reputation: 4636
Two, Star Trek (original) shows that could apply to our planetary crisis where this virus has a propensity to affect the less healthy and a particular age population.

And the Children Shall Lead (S3-E4, Oct 11, 1968). Children upon entering puberty, get an incurable and fatal disease.
The Mark of Gideon (S3-E14, Jan 17, 1969). An over populated world desperate for a population solution...thru a virus.

ARADE
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Old 04-21-2020, 02:52 PM
 
9,288 posts, read 8,121,175 times
Reputation: 7756
You can't compare states since they apparently have different strains. New York state has the B strain from Italy which is much deadlier.

link

Also, Trump is intercepting supplies ordered by the states and may be contributing to the worse totals for New York, New Jersey, Washington, and other states that have more cases. They've resorted to disguising trucks to avoid the feds.
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Old 04-21-2020, 04:34 PM
 
8,741 posts, read 2,428,842 times
Reputation: 5632
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
No there isn’t any doubt that the shutdown of workers limited the spread. To say otherwise is asinine. If I followed social distancing everywhere other than work and say maybe the grocery store think of the expansive exposure. That’s only if everyone of your co-workers actually participate in social distancing outside of work. To think the work shutdown hasn’t limited the spread is ludicrous at best
If you look at Sweden and states that do not have mandatory shutdowns you see similar or less cases than similar states that do have shutdowns. Your theory is that its true but the numbers do not validate that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
You aren’t trying to combine economic issues with health issues and they don’t actually combine. Social distancing has limited the spread and you’ve already agreed to that. The economic shutdown has without any doubt strengthened the social distancing and thus the spread and resulting deaths. I’m not sure how you could argue against that
Yes there are risks for all sorts of behavior. You do have to look at the economic side as well as civil liberties and health. That is the problem that lots of people have with this. Just throwing the economy and civil liberties under the bus and not even considering a more intelligent targeting approach to dealing with it. Health, economics and civil liberties all have to be weighed. And if those other things don't deserve to be considered then declare martial law and suspend the constitution.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
I didn’t attempt to scare anyone. You don’t know what the projections are, no one does. People are downplaying the current death rate and it’s no joke. Annualizing the number pulls it into prospective for those downplaying it. You could say that all those that are unstable as you put it could be equally influenced by your post to think it’s no big deal or that it’s entirely overplayed. Who’s sensationalizing? Probably the person screaming others are doing it, sir
Annulalizing the numbers is no better than someone calling the virus a hoax or downplaying it. Its misinformation that will kill people. Better to say we really do not know. But looking at countries in Europe farther along in the "curve" and deaths have dropped off considerably. It is reasonable to expect the same thing here.

I know its a serious thing but I also believe that we have a right to criticize some of the moves that have been made. Look we will see how this will play out. Lots of states will start opening things up by the first of May. And we will see how it goes. My hunch is if people are smart and social distance and avoid large groups and other risky behavior the numbers will not go way up.

Last edited by Oklazona Bound; 04-21-2020 at 05:35 PM..
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Old 04-21-2020, 05:54 PM
 
Location: Saint John, IN
11,576 posts, read 4,698,808 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
If it was all due to population, then why is California doing relatively well? And wtf is up with Vermont? There is not even a real city there.

Idaho is also higher than I'd expect.
I believe California had a strict stay at-home order with curfews. Other areas, even if smaller might not have or people just didn't care so cases rose.
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Old 04-21-2020, 05:58 PM
 
Location: Saint John, IN
11,576 posts, read 4,698,808 times
Reputation: 14679
Quote:
Originally Posted by mascoma View Post
It's all the old people. Old people die easier.
Just found out today an acquaintance of ours spent 11 days on a ventilator and dies of Covid-19 today. %2 yrs old, no pre-existing health issues! Her son in his 30's is now also in the hospital with the virus.
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Old 04-21-2020, 06:06 PM
 
Location: Niceville, FL
8,585 posts, read 17,149,232 times
Reputation: 9630
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
If you look at Sweden and states that do not have mandatory shutdowns you see similar or less cases than similar states that do have shutdowns. Your theory is that its true but the numbers do not validate that.
From that well know leftist source, Business Insider-

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-...erently-2020-4

Quote:
Sweden's lack of strict lockdowns contrasts sharply with the rest of Europe, and it has yet to see a downturn in COVID-19 cases. The country — which has a population of about 10.2 million — has seen 15,322 cases and 1,765 deaths from the virus so far, making the death rate per capita at 17.3 deaths per 100,000 people.
Quote:
Norway, which has nearly 5.4 million people, has seen 7,191 cases and 182 deaths, with a death rate per capita at 3.37 deaths per 100,000 people. Finland, with a population of 5.5 million, has seen 4,014 COVID-19 cases and 141 deaths, with a death rate per capita at 2.56 deaths per 100,000 people.

For a further comparison, the United States, which has a population of 328.2 million, has seen 800,932 confirmed COVID-19 cases, and 43,006 deaths, with a death rate per capita at 13.1 deaths per 100,000 people.
So if you think that Sweden is similar to its Nordic peers, you're really not doing the math right.
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Old 04-21-2020, 06:30 PM
 
8,741 posts, read 2,428,842 times
Reputation: 5632
Quote:
Originally Posted by beachmouse View Post
From that well know leftist source, Business Insider-

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-...erently-2020-4

So if you think that Sweden is similar to its Nordic peers, you're really not doing the math right.
I was comparing Sweden to other western European countries. Germany has less deaths per capita than its closest neighbors. And what does that tell us?

Instead of cherry picking two countries, how about looking at all the others Sweden is doing better than most of the countries with lock downs. In a normal season Sweden has about 800 deaths due to the flu. The have double that right now with covid-19. So 800 deaths are not important and nothing special needs to be done but 1,600 deaths means the whole economy should have been shut down?

The same as the US states who have followed a similar path of not locking down. The are doing better than most other states.
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Old 04-21-2020, 06:37 PM
 
8,741 posts, read 2,428,842 times
Reputation: 5632
Quote:
Originally Posted by CGab View Post
I believe California had a strict stay at-home order with curfews. Other areas, even if smaller might not have or people just didn't care so cases rose.

California's numbers are going way up. Yesterday was by far their worst day. Even with the lock downs Los Angeles is becoming a major hot spot. Half the deaths in California are in Los Angeles County.
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Old 04-21-2020, 07:45 PM
 
Location: Niceville, FL
8,585 posts, read 17,149,232 times
Reputation: 9630
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
I was comparing Sweden to other western European countries. Germany has less deaths per capita than its closest neighbors. And what does that tell us?
.
Except there's a huge variation in western European countries and cherry picking is what you do when you compare Sweden to Germany or Italy instead of the other Nordic countries who have far similar size, demographics, and culture.

Trying to control for other variables is Statistics 102.
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