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Old 04-16-2020, 10:42 PM
 
4,086 posts, read 1,358,365 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kthnry View Post
Update: As of 4/15, the Sioux Falls meat plant has 644 cases of CV19 and is the number one hotspot in the country. SD has no shelter-in-place requirement. Has the governor been vindicated yet?
But aren't meat plants open around the country? That is essential work.
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:00 PM
 
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
6,282 posts, read 2,794,889 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gemdiver View Post
Don't know, why don't you go start your own thread and stop trying to hijack this one.
JMO, reference Post #1: The People, the Governors, the Local Officials had figured out how to handle social-distancings, self-lockdowns, shelter-in-place.

The Gov of South Dakota was correct in not declaring, Shelter-in-Place. She had no way to enforce it and would probably be run out-of-state. She took a chance until, a big processing plant got hot; It would have happened anyway, as long as the plant was kept open. Such is the nature of biology and humans.

The Gov of Washington, was correct in declaring, Shelter-in-place. Seattle area had case #1, and the first hotspot. The big employers saw the need for a shutdown. ie How do you decontaminate an airplane? How can you continue assembling an airplane when key people are out sick with CV19? When Amazon and Microsoft tells its tech people to work from home in late Feb, do you think that the Govnr is going countermand or follow their lead? I assure you the tech people are sheltering-in-place very well even though Seattle is very outdoorsy and foody's paradise. Spring in the PNW is absolutely stunningly beautiful. I certainly don't want to be an Amazon employee who gets CV19, 3 weeks after being told to WFH and shelter-in-place. The Govnr or local officials can't arrest any one either, Courts are shutdown and would anyone like to sit next to a juror age 70, me?

the Governors, red or blue, Donkey or Elephant, took the pragmatic path. Has nothing to do with being right or wrong or being vindicated (See Post 1, question asked)

Last edited by leastprime; 04-16-2020 at 11:11 PM..
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:02 PM
 
Location: Niceville, FL
8,584 posts, read 17,142,751 times
Reputation: 9597
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foamposite View Post
He gives the religious right lip service, but has he passed any laws that they wanted?
He has packed the courts bigly with every right wing Liberty University-educated whackaloon judge they could dig out from under a rock, even ones the usual non-partisan external judicial review boards would describe as horribly unqualified.
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Old 04-17-2020, 02:26 AM
 
8,287 posts, read 4,648,955 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
So we have about 28,000 deaths as of 4/16. About half being in NY and NJ. Predictions just a few weeks ago warned of up to 200,000 deaths with a lock down and millions without. Many red state governors resisted doing a lock down including the states I spend most of my time in AZ and OK. In fact there are still more than half a dozen red states who have either a partial or no lock down. And these states have fared well compared other states took much more draconian measures.

In fact if you look at job losses per 1,000 people these red states overall have suffered fewer job losses than states with the harsh lock downs:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/this...ronavirus.html


So were these states right to resist locking down?
If you're comparing states, you compare the percentage of cases to population, not the number of cases. You don't include DEATH RATE because that is caused by a variety of factors, one of which is age, another is availability of hospital beds and ventilators, and that's not why states shut down. It's a natural consequence of more cases that there will be more deaths, of course.

Additionally, more heavily populated areas will have higher RATES because of the density of the population, the number of large cities, mass transit, etc.

Also, some states haven't peaked yet, while some have. All the states didn't start getting the virus at the same time. There's a curve to it. Some states have very few cases and have never shut down, and no need to. They're not heavily populated states with a lot of travelers, etc.

Finally, it follows that a state with a high rate of cases WOULD have more of a need of shutting down than a state with a lighter rate. It's not that a state like N. Dakota had fewer cases because it didn't shut down; it's that N Dakota didn't shut down BECAUSE it didn't have enough cases to warrant it.

So you've got it backwards. Shutting down is a method of trying to control the growth/spread that has gotten large very quickly, not the other way around. Not many cases and not growing quickly? No need to shut down.

Also, the timeline of each state is different. Gov. Cuomo said he thinks NY seems like it's close to peaking, whereas FL is still on the upswing & may peak in early May.

The experts who recommend social distancing or shutting non-essential services in certain cases know what they're talking about. Shutting down did indeed slow the growth, when it was implemented. It's been proven to slow the spread in various countries. It saves lives, illness, money for medical bills. And maybe part of it is impressing on people the seriousness of the virus. Many people in the U S still don't get the seriousness of it...and won't, unless they are affected. Some people are like that.

Last edited by bpollen; 04-17-2020 at 02:41 AM..
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Old 04-17-2020, 02:49 AM
 
8,287 posts, read 4,648,955 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Foamposite View Post
He gives the religious right lip service, but has he passed any laws that they wanted?
He put the American Embassy in Israel in Jersalem. That was #1 on the evangelist wish list.

Yes, he worked w/the rightwingnuts in Congress to pass some discrimination bills so religious people could refuse their business' insurance provide birth control pills to women, and various things about gay marriage or whatever. We all know the repetitive drill. Most have been struck down in the courts, but some have not. I think schools can "allow" prayer now.

Maybe that's why he wants to pack the courts with his Trumpers (he doesn't want the Senate to confirm or not)...he's getting ready to do something with those judges. A bunch of lawsuits, or a bunch of bills that he doesnt' want overturned.
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Old 04-17-2020, 07:36 AM
 
8,695 posts, read 2,418,954 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bpollen View Post
If you're comparing states, you compare the percentage of cases to population, not the number of cases. You don't include DEATH RATE because that is caused by a variety of factors, one of which is age, another is availability of hospital beds and ventilators, and that's not why states shut down. It's a natural consequence of more cases that there will be more deaths, of course.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...ses/111552340/

If you look at the above list they are ranked by cases per 1,000 people. The red states that resisted locking down for the most part have less cases per 1,000 that the average. And many states shut down early on not knowing how bad it may or may not get. New Mexico fits the profile of the mountain and plains states many who did not shut down. New Mexico with a blue governor did shut down early and is doing worse than Arizona and Oklahoma which resisted a shut down and even now have shut down less than New Mexico.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bpollen View Post
Additionally, more heavily populated areas will have higher RATES because of the density of the population, the number of large cities, mass transit, etc.

Also, some states haven't peaked yet, while some have. All the states didn't start getting the virus at the same time. There's a curve to it. Some states have very few cases and have never shut down, and no need to. They're not heavily populated states with a lot of travelers, etc.
But the chatter in late March was all states need to shut down. There was no disclaimer that some areas and some states did not need to do it. Easy for you to say this after the fact.

Experts Say The U.S. Needs A National Shutdown ASAP

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...hat-comes-next

Quote:
Originally Posted by bpollen View Post
Finally, it follows that a state with a high rate of cases WOULD have more of a need of shutting down than a state with a lighter rate. It's not that a state like N. Dakota had fewer cases because it didn't shut down; it's that N Dakota didn't shut down BECAUSE it didn't have enough cases to warrant it.

So you've got it backwards. Shutting down is a method of trying to control the growth/spread that has gotten large very quickly, not the other way around. Not many cases and not growing quickly? No need to shut down.
No I have it right. Outside of some red state governors who did it on their own, what health expert said some states do not need to shut down? I missed that. In fact both in Arizona and Oklahoma both governors were ridiculed for not shutting down faster, even though the cases in both states were increasing slowly. Experts warned that states who did not take it seriously would be overwhelmed with cases. That did not happen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bpollen View Post
Also, the timeline of each state is different. Gov. Cuomo said he thinks NY seems like it's close to peaking, whereas FL is still on the upswing & may peak in early May.
If you look at the FL numbers. They peaked on 4/6. Yes death numbers lag the cases. Case declines show the virus in decline. They have been trending down since 4/6. FL is not on the upswing. But that has been the chatter since spring breakers were not stopped and the fact FL has a large older population. It would be the next NY and be overwhelmed with cases.

Florida will soon become the epicenter of the world's coronavirus pandemic, according to former FDA comissioner Scott Gottlieb.
https://www.ccn.com/after-new-york-h...virus-hotspot/


Coronavirus is ravaging New York, and Florida could be next. Are we ready?
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronav...exe-story.html


Now we get this:
Orange County Florida may have already seen peak in coronavirus cases, doctor says

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/lo...s-doctor-says/

Last edited by Oklazona Bound; 04-17-2020 at 07:45 AM..
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Old 04-17-2020, 07:51 AM
 
Location: Niceville, FL
8,584 posts, read 17,142,751 times
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One thing that makes Florida very different than New York is not politics but population density in metro areas- more than 90% of the state was literally built with the idea of post-WW2 suburban car culture in mind. So there's a natural social distancing that happens when everyone takes their personal auto everywhere instead of mass transit, which has been a huge disease vector for New York City (look at the number of NYC transit workers who have died from the disease and it's staggering)
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Old 04-17-2020, 08:07 AM
 
Location: S-E Michigan
3,106 posts, read 4,144,854 times
Reputation: 6766
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foamposite View Post
But aren't meat plants open around the country? That is essential work.
No. Or rather, not necessarily open. The new owners of Smithfield's Meats have closed two additional meat packing plants in the US because of the COVID issues at their Sioux Falls plant.

My wife asked me this morning if I thought the thousands of Smithfield's hams consumed just last weekend for Easter may have been contaminated, either the outer wrapper or the surface of the meat? Too early to see evidence yet, but the Sioux Falls hams may have infected hundreds or thousands of additional people.
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Old 04-17-2020, 08:18 AM
 
4,390 posts, read 3,570,493 times
Reputation: 13277
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
Of course it will. Unless going to town means he is going to NYC. He is going to a town where lots of people social distance like himself because of low population density and large tracks of land. Should the town in Montana suffer financially like NYC just because the dopes in DC think that a one size fits all approach is best?
In other posts by you, you've made it obvious that your own notions of what is prudent with regard to COVID19 protection carries more weight than what has been presented by those with a much better understanding of the disease. And because of that, there is no sense in arguing against that puny effort on your part to re think the parameters of precaution. I have many Montana family members living in some pretty remote areas of the Mission Valley, Granite county, and the Deer Lodge area, and they are hunkered down waiting this out, rural doesn't equal stupid.

The FACT of the matter IS, that in any town, large or small, bozo's abound, bozo's have little to no thought about others, bozo's run around with no protection, no ability to fathom the evidence before them, and anyone of those bozo's could be the one who infects you, even if there is just the two of you, that's enough to keep the COVID party going. Your preposterous positing of NYC being the only place worthy of the necessary precaution is all too typical of bozo thinking. That big sky ain't any protection against a virus..

https://helenair.com/news/local/241-...77b032b4c.html
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Old 04-17-2020, 08:38 AM
 
3,548 posts, read 2,252,435 times
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Comparing to a 4 professional sport city like Detroit or New York that turned into hot spots is insanity. These are top 15 metros. They’re loaded with domestic and international business. High population density. Public transportation. Big cities also lead to big time poverty. Systems get overwhelmed with the density.

You can’t compare that to some place in Oklahoma.
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