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Old Yesterday, 07:48 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
27,676 posts, read 20,664,451 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
The question is whether locking down before the virus even arrives in significant numbers accomplishes much.
It's hard to suss out - chicken and egg deal.

Locally, we've had very few cases until the last couple of weeks. A few here and there per day. At most last week, it was 21 on two different days. About half a million people in the greater region. 700-800 cumulative cases.

Were there few cases because of the lockdown? The cases we're getting now are probably coming as people go on vacation and bring it back. It's not small town northeast TN is some kind of transit hub or attracting a lot of out of area interest.
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Old Yesterday, 07:57 AM
 
Location: Western Washington
10,486 posts, read 9,458,340 times
Reputation: 17838
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
It's hard to suss out - chicken and egg deal.
Not really. China locked down an entire city, and their densely populated country has had almost no additional cases since.

New Zealand went into isolation early, and the virus barely go a foothold. Their case count is very low.

Norway and Finland went into lockdown mode early, Sweden did not. Sweden has much higher case counts.

This is not hard to understand. If you take preventative measures, you prevent the virus from establishing and the people don’t get infected, or infect others.

It is like practicing safe sex, washing your hands before you cook dinner, and other common sense steps. You dramatically increase your risk of infection if you do not practice precautions. Community isolation is the best method we have at the moment for preventing viral spread.
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Old Yesterday, 10:08 AM
 
Location: Guadalajara, MX
7,542 posts, read 3,670,671 times
Reputation: 14341
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
If you look at Sweden and states that do not have mandatory shutdowns you see similar or less cases than similar states that do have shutdowns. Your theory is that its true but the numbers do not validate that.
Jesus.

Sweden is currently 18th highest (out of over 200 listed countries) for cases per 100k population. They are 4x higher than their Nordic neighbors. I'd be curious if you're still hanging on to this notion that Sweden is an example that supports the inefficacy of mandatory shutdowns.
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Old Yesterday, 10:46 AM
 
1,990 posts, read 1,084,988 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ocnjgirl View Post
Where should they have been discharged to?
Exactly. SNF's receive millions per year in Medicaid. If they want to turn away COVID patients, then their funding should reflect this. They are health facilities, not hotels.

We run a very dangerous slope when medical facilities can start saying, "you are too sick, we can't take you due to the risk."
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Old Yesterday, 11:52 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
27,676 posts, read 20,664,451 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fishbrains View Post
Not really. China locked down an entire city, and their densely populated country has had almost no additional cases since.

New Zealand went into isolation early, and the virus barely go a foothold. Their case count is very low.

Norway and Finland went into lockdown mode early, Sweden did not. Sweden has much higher case counts.

This is not hard to understand. If you take preventative measures, you prevent the virus from establishing and the people don’t get infected, or infect others.

It is like practicing safe sex, washing your hands before you cook dinner, and other common sense steps. You dramatically increase your risk of infection if you do not practice precautions. Community isolation is the best method we have at the moment for preventing viral spread.
This won't work in the US.

New Zealand and the Nordic countries actually take care of their people. Many European countries have backstopped employers to keep workers on the payroll at X% of wages. Here, workers are just furloughed or laid off, and left at the mercy of unemployment. These countries have state sponsored health insurance.

Our social safety net is poor. Enhanced UI runs out in a month. Many people didn't get it in a timely fashion. I have a friend who lost his job in mid-March and was already back to work before seeing his first dollar. For many folks, the only thing they received is a one-time stimulus payment. With health insurance being tied to your job, it's gone once their job vaporizes.

When you have a poor safety net, you really have no choice but to open up, get people to work, and hope for the best. That's not even counting the cultural issues.
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Old Yesterday, 02:56 PM
 
Location: Western Washington
10,486 posts, read 9,458,340 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
This won't work in the US.

New Zealand and the Nordic countries actually take care of their people. Many European countries have backstopped employers to keep workers on the payroll at X% of wages. Here, workers are just furloughed or laid off, and left at the mercy of unemployment. These countries have state sponsored health insurance.

Our social safety net is poor. Enhanced UI runs out in a month. Many people didn't get it in a timely fashion. I have a friend who lost his job in mid-March and was already back to work before seeing his first dollar. For many folks, the only thing they received is a one-time stimulus payment. With health insurance being tied to your job, it's gone once their job vaporizes.

When you have a poor safety net, you really have no choice but to open up, get people to work, and hope for the best. That's not even counting the cultural issues.
All of your points are valid. We do not have the structure to address things like this, and millions may die as a result. Or we spend the money now that we refused to spend previously in supporting our citizens.

I hope that nobody I know dies of Covid in the future. I do know a couple if people who became infected and were hospitalized.
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Old Yesterday, 04:00 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
27,676 posts, read 20,664,451 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fishbrains View Post
All of your points are valid. We do not have the structure to address things like this, and millions may die as a result. Or we spend the money now that we refused to spend previously in supporting our citizens.

I hope that nobody I know dies of Covid in the future. I do know a couple if people who became infected and were hospitalized.
I really don't know what people expect. I was opposed to lockdowns for a few reasons.

1) I live in a small metro. Until the last couple of weeks, cases were trickling in at 5-10/day. Even now, they're trickling in around 20/day in TN - less so in rural southwest VA. Below is the current northeast TN case profiel.

Carter — 52 cases / 1 death / 31 recoveries
Greene — 81 cases / 2 deaths / 55 recoveries
Hawkins — 49 cases / 2 deaths / 35 recoveries
Johnson — 35 cases / 0 deaths/ 24 recoveries
Sullivan — 87 cases / 2 deaths / 72 recoveries
Unicoi — 53 cases / 0 deaths/ 52 recoveries
Washington — 128 cases / 0 deaths/ 100 recoveries

I think that's seven dead in northeast TN. I hate it, and some of these illnesses have been severe, but that is no reason to throw tens of thousands out of work, as already happened regionally.

A policy that is appropriate in NYC or even Nashville may not be appropriate here.

2) Singular focus on COVID for the health system. People with truly necessary treatments for other health issues weren't getting it because the hospitals were shut down for all but "nonemergent" procedures due to COVID. Hospitals were furloughing nurses and even physicians during a pandemic due to lack of revenue, all mandated by the government.

3) Resulting social problems. It could be anything. Increases in domestic violence. Increases in substance abuse. I think a good bit of the protesting was done by young people who were simply bored and have nothing to do.

4) Economic problems. That's self-explanatory.

What bothers me is the government basically terminated the livelihoods of tens of millions without any way of backstopping them. In most areas, it was downright criminal.
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Old Yesterday, 06:03 PM
 
Location: New York Area
19,863 posts, read 7,800,828 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
I really don't know what people expect. I was opposed to lockdowns for a few reasons.******************

What bothers me is the government basically terminated the livelihoods of tens of millions without any way of backstopping them. In most areas, it was downright criminal.
As a leftwing progressive Democrat I say just perfect.
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Old Yesterday, 06:10 PM
 
3,095 posts, read 4,941,612 times
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I don’t know a single person who had had it in western NY. I worked with upwards of 50 construction workers.
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Old Today, 09:40 AM
 
6,017 posts, read 3,350,409 times
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Vindicated? They were just being logical and sane.

5 of the highest death total states engaged in strict lockdowns (CA, NY, MI, PA, NJ), and were shoving Covid-19 patients into nursing homes, you know... the population of people for which the virus had a nearly 10% mortality rate?

If you were not obese, or young, or had no immuno-compromised conditions, your survival rate was on par with the flu. In fact if you were in that 25 and under group, your survival rate was even better than the common flu.



The truth is if you minus all the nursing home/care home deaths, Covid-19 looks like a bad flu season, not even the worst on record.
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