U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 06-30-2020, 09:59 AM
 
12,672 posts, read 17,748,222 times
Reputation: 14491

Advertisements

Thank you, Cali! if you look at the graph, Cali posted and, active cases graph on the same site:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
you WILL notice that cases do climb up - mortality does just the opposite!!

Actually, even better:


Estimating infection fatality rates

The exact lag from an outpatient being recorded as ILI to death is unknown, but estimated lag times from onset to death and from hospitalization to death (27) can be used to understand the range of implied infection fatality rates from the ILI surge. We calculated the infection fatality rate implied by the ILI surge as a function of the unknown lag from patients being recorded as ILI and death, and we repeat this calculation for both the raw and subclinical rate adjusted ILI estimates. For a lag of l days from ILI reporting to death, the infection fatality rate was estimated by dividing the magnitude of the adjusted or raw ILI surge by all new deaths occurring within the dates (2020/03/08 + l, ..., 2020/03/28 + l). A plot of the fatality rate by lag for raw and unadjusted ILI surges revealed a large range of fatality rates compatible with the ILI surge and highly sensitive to the estimate of lag and clinical rates. One study (27) estimated a median 11.2 days from hospitalization to death and 16.1 days from symptom onset to death. For the raw ILI surge estimate, 11 day and 16 day lag times would produce median infection fatality rate estimates of 0.57% and 0.89%, respectively, without adjusting for any subclinical infections; for the subclinical-adjusted ILI surge estimate, these lag times would produce median infection fatality rate estimates of 0.19% and 0.29%, respectively.

https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/e...nslmed.abc1126
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 06-30-2020, 10:28 AM
 
6,031 posts, read 3,356,662 times
Reputation: 5858
Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
Thank you, Cali! if you look at the graph, Cali posted and, active cases graph on the same site:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
you WILL notice that cases do climb up - mortality does just the opposite!!
Yup.

If you read analyst opinions on the effects on the market due to covid-19 downstream, many of them are already taking this simple fact into account. The market has responded.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-30-2020, 10:38 AM
 
Location: NJ
26,840 posts, read 32,447,277 times
Reputation: 18921
Quote:
Originally Posted by fishbrains View Post
It is like practicing safe sex, washing your hands before you cook dinner, and other common sense steps. You dramatically increase your risk of infection if you do not practice precautions. Community isolation is the best method we have at the moment for preventing viral spread.
you mean no fun?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-30-2020, 11:08 AM
 
80 posts, read 29,710 times
Reputation: 178
Quote:
Originally Posted by augiedogie View Post
The lockdown will continue in some states until Trump is defeated. Soon after, miraculously, they will decide to open up. This way they can blame Trump for the bad economy and the msm will carry their water.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-30-2020, 11:11 AM
 
80 posts, read 29,710 times
Reputation: 178
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
The question is whether locking down before the virus even arrives in significant numbers accomplishes much.
South Korea found MERS. Subdquently, they know how to handle a pandemic.
Start looking at successful models and observe how they did it.

Meanwhile, they can open everything they want. If covid cases spike drastically, there will be no consumer confience, no tourists, etc. Nobody wants to spend their vacation at a radioactive county. Nobody will be flocking there.

The economies in places that are backsliding will just further arrest their economic recovery. So the goal should be to do everything possiible to prevent further community spread.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-30-2020, 11:16 AM
 
1,428 posts, read 427,932 times
Reputation: 3793
Oh no!!!

The pillar of Blue liberal wokeness, California, is seeing massive spikes in CV19.

Comrade Newsom is going to be shutting things back down again.

So much for that Red state argument.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-30-2020, 11:19 AM
 
80 posts, read 29,710 times
Reputation: 178
Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
Estimating infection fatality rates
Many people who get covid do not die, but they have lingering and possibly permanent problems.

So it's not just a matter of "dying".

I know athletes that were in top physical shape, got covid, and now can barely walk to their mailbox 1/10th of a mile from the front door. And they don't know how long that will last.

We also do not know ENOUGH about the long term deficits / effects on the human body yet.

The idea some put forth about "oh people get this all the time and recover" is therefore not the whole picture. Just because you don't end up in a hospital, intubated, doesn't mean anything because we just don't know.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-30-2020, 11:20 AM
 
Location: NJ
26,840 posts, read 32,447,277 times
Reputation: 18921
Quote:
Originally Posted by pavedwithgold View Post
Many people who get covid do not die, but they have lingering and possibly permanent problems.

So it's not just a matter of "dying".

I know athletes that were in top physical shape, got covid, and now can barely walk to their mailbox 1/10th of a mile from the front door. And they don't know how long that will last.

We also do not know ENOUGH about the long term deficits / effects on the human body yet.

The idea some put forth about "oh people get this all the time and recover" is therefore not the whole picture. Just because you don't end up in a hospital, intubated, doesn't mean anything because we just don't know.
how many athletes do you know in this situation?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-30-2020, 11:21 AM
 
6,031 posts, read 3,356,662 times
Reputation: 5858
Quote:
Originally Posted by pavedwithgold View Post

I know athletes that were in top physical shape, got covid, and now can barely walk to their mailbox 1/10th of a mile from the front door. And they don't know how long that will last.
I love anecdotes. They are so easy to make up.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-30-2020, 11:23 AM
 
80 posts, read 29,710 times
Reputation: 178
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trekker99 View Post
Oh no!!!

The pillar of Blue liberal wokeness, California, is seeing massive spikes in CV19.

Comrade Newsom is going to be shutting things back down again.

So much for that Red state argument.
Viruses don't know if they are rising in a blue or red state. This is a highly contagious one though.

You can open or not open, but if your citizens are not practicing the suggested CDC requirements, (masks, social distancing, hand washing, etc.) then it has capability to spread.

Sometimes its better to ask the right questions, in order to get the right answer.

Anyone who makes this into a poltiical football, I just usually ignore.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top