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So we have about 28,000 deaths as of 4/16. About half being in NY and NJ. Predictions just a few weeks ago warned of up to 200,000 deaths with a lock down and millions without. Many red state governors resisted doing a lock down including the states I spend most of my time in AZ and OK. In fact there are still more than half a dozen red states who have either a partial or no lock down. And these states have fared well compared other states took much more draconian measures.
In fact if you look at job losses per 1,000 people these red states overall have suffered fewer job losses than states with the harsh lock downs:
It’s almost like the much larger urban areas have more jobs to lose and that it was riskier there due to population density and the amount of domestic and international travel going through major business hubs.
It’s almost like the much larger urban areas have more jobs to lose and that it was riskier there due to population density and the amount of domestic and international travel going through major business hubs.
It’s almost like the much larger urban areas have more jobs to lose and that it was riskier there due to population density and the amount of domestic and international travel going through major business hubs.
So were these states right to resist locking down?
No.
California 23 deaths per 1 mil
Indiana 66
Florida 31
Georgia 57
Louisiana 237
Florida's death toll is probably under-reported because many nursing homes won't report COVID deaths because they have policies preventing the release of patient medical information (and they have an incentive to not report for marketing reasons, plus fear of liability).
New York, NJ and Conn are all bad because infected Europeans came in through the international airports before the distancing orders came into effect. The important lesson here is that distancing is most effective before the cat is out of the bag.
Texas has a strong stay-at-home order but the governor doesn't use that label. They've done well to hold it at 13 deaths per million. They are getting ready to lift the order soon, which could be a serious mistake if it results in the virus running wild in cities like Houston or Dallas.
So we have about 28,000 deaths as of 4/16. About half being in NY and NJ. Predictions just a few weeks ago warned of up to 200,000 deaths with a lock down and millions without. Many red state governors resisted doing a lock down including the states I spend most of my time in AZ and OK. In fact there are still more than half a dozen red states who have either a partial or no lock down. And these states have fared well compared other states took much more draconian measures.
In fact if you look at job losses per 1,000 people these red states overall have suffered fewer job losses than states with the harsh lock downs:
That study modeled deaths over the span of two years.
Two.
Years.
It was published on March 16th, exactly one month ago. As we stand, daily fatalities in the United States have topped 1000 for 13 days running, have topped 1500 ten days running, and topped 2700 yesterday. They stand now at 33,000+.
With.
23.
Months.
Remaining.
In.
The.
Model.
Yet you want to declare that the death totals are 'lower than predicted'?
I'm not saying it was the right decision to not do a shutdown , but many liberals are going to automatically criticize everything any right wing politician ever does (and vice versa)
I think the main takeaway is that most red states have a totally different lifestyle model that inherently helps reduce transmission.
I live in a small city in Tennessee. I have a family member in Queens. I live in a townhome - I'm the only one or entering my home. She lives in a large apartment building with who knows how many people entering and exiting common spaces. I drive a car everywhere and never use public transit. She uses public transit and does not own a car. I'm working from home. She's effectively furloughed now, but worked in an office at a heat pump company. I can go to Sam's and Walmart and bulk purchase. How she's going to do that without a car?
My lifestyle, even assuming roughly the same % of infected people in both areas, is going to make it far less likely that I get infected than she will.
The "dumbing down of America" was a popular meme in the eighties and beyond, mostly a phrase that reflected the notion of intellectualism, and the intelligentsia in general, to be irrelevant in a society which favors pop culture and celeb-media over any scholarly pursuits. "Eggheads," "Nerds," "Geeks," all are terms of disparagement, they were used against those who were demonstratively intelligent, by those belittling any activity outside that of popular culture.
This is the social environment in America, ground zero for the US socio/political divide, red and blue, libs and neocons, blue collar VS white collar, etc. If you believe this to be the underlying social construct, then you can see the problem with any attempt to bring the country's populace to align themselves as a united front against--Anything. It's as though half the nation would be waiting for their marching orders from the likes of Rush Limbaugh and the other half from the scholarly study conclusions coming from MIT..
But, back to the OP's question: "So were these states right to resist locking down?"
No state should have felt the need to do anything in the way of ordering it's citizens to do what is prudent, given the facts of highly contagious diseases. But, that would assume, a widespread understanding of the medical consequences, a unified view of the need to distance oneself from others, the widespread agreement between the people of any state that certain activities be halted, Voluntarily... But, lacking the necessary view to act voluntarily, usually means those with authority must act accordingly.
The deaths of our loved ones isn't just a number to be utilized in defense of our personal interests and wants.. But, the citizens of America want their way in most everything, that's the price we pay for raising children to believe they are somehow special, and teaching them to believe that they have special rights, and it's the price we will pay for a growing--willful ignorance, one that promotes self interest over everything, even the death of others. We tell ourselves that a good education is absolutely a modern day necessity, and then turn around and refute the conclusions reached by--The educated.
The fact, that viruses do not have any political affiliation, that they are definitely deadly, and very contagious, seems to have been put aside in favor of doing what one wants, going where one wants, AND, most importantly--Thinking of oneself as the final authority, even though there is zero evidence to support such a position.
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