Are Red State Governors who resisted lock downs vindicated with the lower than predicted death totals? (loans, costs)

[animalcrazy]

It's going to be an interesting experiment to see if these red states that are resisting lock down fare well, or follow New York after their late response to lock down. Do we know how many people are staying home without a formal stay at home order in place? Are those states testing or trying to keep their numbers low?

If we look at that South Dakota meat packing plant with an outbreak of Covid, we might have a glimpse into what's going to happen in red states that are resisting social distancing. South Dakota has 1,168 cases, but remember, one is too many without proper tracing and testing. At least all of the schools are closed. Several meat processing plants across South Dakota have since closed. Are we going to have a meat shortage now? The outbreak at Smithfield has now made it the 4th largest Covid hot spot in the USA. That's with school closures, and social distancing guidelines.

Red states resisting? Just plain Darwin.

[jertheber]

Originally Posted by animalcrazy

It's going to be an interesting experiment to see if these red states that are resisting lock down fare well, or follow New York after their late response to lock down. Do we know how many people are staying home without a formal stay at home order in place? Are those states testing or trying to keep their numbers low?

If we look at that South Dakota meat packing plant with an outbreak of Covid, we might have a glimpse into what's going to happen in red states that are resisting social distancing. South Dakota has 1,168 cases, but remember, one is too many without proper tracing and testing. At least all of the schools are closed. Several meat processing plants across South Dakota have since closed. Are we going to have a meat shortage now? The outbreak at Smithfield has now made it the 4th largest Covid hot spot in the USA. That's with school closures, and social distancing guidelines.

Red states resisting? Just plain Darwin.

It's odd that many in our country are feeling a ton of political anxiety, even to the point that many think of this as a red--blue issue. When I read the posts from those who think about everything in those terms, it seems as if this over politicization of events renders the brain incapable of seeing beyond those narrow parameters. Many in the rural areas, who felt safe, are now fearing the arrival of the city folks running scared and going to the country to escape what they can fairly easily prevent through the CDC's best practices regimen..

Most of the posters who see everything in political terms are actually riding on the notions of anti government sentiment, mostly, a basic sense of distrust, disapproval, and disgust, leading them to small acts of rebellion. When I have gone out to do my grocery shopping or gas up the car, I'm not surprised to see the hordes of Billy Bob's running around without a care in the world, no PPE, no thoughts about the infection potentials for others, walking out of the store bare hands and opening the car door and driving off, in short--just plain stupid people. Reading through the forums, it's easy to speculate on the consequences stemming from a collective of ignorant types who will most likely become a worse threat than any viral presence.

[Foamposite]

Originally Posted by bpollen

He put the American Embassy in Israel in Jersalem. That was #1 on the evangelist wish list.

Yes, he worked w/the rightwingnuts in Congress to pass some discrimination bills so religious people could refuse their business' insurance provide birth control pills to women, and various things about gay marriage or whatever. We all know the repetitive drill. Most have been struck down in the courts, but some have not. I think schools can "allow" prayer now.

Maybe that's why he wants to pack the courts with his Trumpers (he doesn't want the Senate to confirm or not)...he's getting ready to do something with those judges. A bunch of lawsuits, or a bunch of bills that he doesnt' want overturned.

The atheist right tends to support most of that stuff, so I'm not sure what your point is.

Atheist conservatives and libertarians also agree with religious freedom of employers, even if they don't personally agree with the decisions of said employer.

[Ambitious994]

Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound

So we have about 28,000 deaths as of 4/16. About half being in NY and NJ. Predictions just a few weeks ago warned of up to 200,000 deaths with a lock down and millions without. Many red state governors resisted doing a lock down including the states I spend most of my time in AZ and OK. In fact there are still more than half a dozen red states who have either a partial or no lock down. And these states have fared well compared other states took much more draconian measures.

In fact if you look at job losses per 1,000 people these red states overall have suffered fewer job losses than states with the harsh lock downs:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/this...ronavirus.html


So were these states right to resist locking down?

YES, they were right. The entire thing was overblown and the messaging behind it gets spun to fit whatever narrative on the death count.

- If the death count was higher at around the 240k level that Fauci said, then they would be saying: "See, we needed to shut everything down to keep it from being higher!"

- If the death count is flat and well under the even 60k that Fauci adjusted his estimates to, then they say: "See, we needed to shut everything down to keep it from being higher!"

Literally if this thing only killed 1 person, they would most likely still say: "See, we needed to shut everything down to keep it from being higher!"

This was the biggest blunder and scam in American history.

[leastprime]

^ Well, the great Absolute Decider got convinced, then unconvinced, then convince, unconvinced, convinced.
Me, I just got kicked into a new risk age group today. We'll just continue our hunkered down mode a while longer although not as tight (we've been going to parks in off hours). Seattle & probably King Co. will be 'opening' up the bigger parks this weekend with restrictions. Most parks were 'open' during the last 2 months but people know enough to be thoroughly aware of physical distancing. A lot of police are contaminated CoVIDs . A lot of public service employees have gotten sick to maintain services.

[beachmouse]

Originally Posted by jertheber

Many in the rural areas, who felt safe, are now fearing the arrival of the city folks running scared and going to the country to escape what they can fairly easily prevent through the CDC's best practices regimen..

The rural areas also know that the health care options they have are also not sufficient for year around residents, much less an influx of others in a time of medical crisis. Moab, Utah was one of the first places to shutter to tourists because the local hospital has something like 30 beds total and for anything much more than a c-section childbirth or broken leg, it’s a 2+ hour ambulance transfer to Grand Junction, Colorado

[roodd279]

Alright, all knowing forum posters: What SHOULD Fauci have said?


His ONLY correct words - at the moment - would have been this:


"With social distancing in place, only 35,000 will die. Without it, more will die."


That's it.


But 35,000 is wrong, of course. It will be 45,000 a week from now, maybe 50,000.


"With social distancing in place, only 50,000 will die. Without it, more will die."


But HOW MANY MORE the press demands. The citizenry demand. The president demands. HOW MANY MORE?


"Can't say. No way to know."


"No way to know?? Can't we count spread, and use data, and ask other virus experts, and look at Italy?


"Nope. That's all bunk. They all say a million or two, but clearly they're wrong. So let's just go with "more.""


This is why bashing Fauci or the models is nutty. His model WITH distancing was based on his info at the moment - which THANK GOD turned out to be a little too aggressive, so we might be under 100K when it's over. To make the stretch that his OTHER Model - 2 million without help - was SO wrong as to be JUST the 50K we have now - is totally nonsense. Maybe he was wrong by half. Just 1 Million Dead. Maybe he was wrong by 75%. Just 750,000 dead.


NO CHANGE IN THE OUTCOME. Social distancing was happening. Accept it. Move on.

[Lowexpectations]

Well looks like a couple of states are just starting to see jumps in their numbers


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/polit...rus/index.html

[Oklazona Bound]

Originally Posted by animalcrazy

It's going to be an interesting experiment to see if these red states that are resisting lock down fare well, or follow New York after their late response to lock down. Do we know how many people are staying home without a formal stay at home order in place? Are those states testing or trying to keep their numbers low?

They have fared well. Most if not all of them have declining case numbers now. You look at those states and Sweden and you see that social distancing helps but a lock down may not make much difference.

Originally Posted by animalcrazy

If we look at that South Dakota meat packing plant with an outbreak of Covid, we might have a glimpse into what's going to happen in red states that are resisting social distancing. South Dakota has 1,168 cases, but remember, one is too many without proper tracing and testing.

You realize that meat packing plants are part of the food supply? They are essential businesses. Shutting down the state would not have effected them. That is the one glaring error in your argument.

And all states are doing social distancing. Some believe a more balanced approach is better for their state. And so far they are correct.

[luzianne]

Isn't it because of the lockdowns that we have lower than predicted death totals? If we hadn't done that, and if we don't continue to do that, death totals are going to rise. This isn't over yet.