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Thank you, Cali! if you look at the graph, Cali posted and, active cases graph on the same site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
you WILL notice that cases do climb up - mortality does just the opposite!!
Actually, even better:
Estimating infection fatality rates
The exact lag from an outpatient being recorded as ILI to death is unknown, but estimated lag times from onset to death and from hospitalization to death (27) can be used to understand the range of implied infection fatality rates from the ILI surge. We calculated the infection fatality rate implied by the ILI surge as a function of the unknown lag from patients being recorded as ILI and death, and we repeat this calculation for both the raw and subclinical rate adjusted ILI estimates. For a lag of l days from ILI reporting to death, the infection fatality rate was estimated by dividing the magnitude of the adjusted or raw ILI surge by all new deaths occurring within the dates (2020/03/08 + l, ..., 2020/03/28 + l). A plot of the fatality rate by lag for raw and unadjusted ILI surges revealed a large range of fatality rates compatible with the ILI surge and highly sensitive to the estimate of lag and clinical rates. One study (27) estimated a median 11.2 days from hospitalization to death and 16.1 days from symptom onset to death. For the raw ILI surge estimate, 11 day and 16 day lag times would produce median infection fatality rate estimates of 0.57% and 0.89%, respectively, without adjusting for any subclinical infections; for the subclinical-adjusted ILI surge estimate, these lag times would produce median infection fatality rate estimates of 0.19% and 0.29%, respectively.
Thank you, Cali! if you look at the graph, Cali posted and, active cases graph on the same site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
you WILL notice that cases do climb up - mortality does just the opposite!!
Yup.
If you read analyst opinions on the effects on the market due to covid-19 downstream, many of them are already taking this simple fact into account. The market has responded.
It is like practicing safe sex, washing your hands before you cook dinner, and other common sense steps. You dramatically increase your risk of infection if you do not practice precautions. Community isolation is the best method we have at the moment for preventing viral spread.
The lockdown will continue in some states until Trump is defeated. Soon after, miraculously, they will decide to open up. This way they can blame Trump for the bad economy and the msm will carry their water.
The question is whether locking down before the virus even arrives in significant numbers accomplishes much.
South Korea found MERS. Subdquently, they know how to handle a pandemic.
Start looking at successful models and observe how they did it.
Meanwhile, they can open everything they want. If covid cases spike drastically, there will be no consumer confience, no tourists, etc. Nobody wants to spend their vacation at a radioactive county. Nobody will be flocking there.
The economies in places that are backsliding will just further arrest their economic recovery. So the goal should be to do everything possiible to prevent further community spread.
Many people who get covid do not die, but they have lingering and possibly permanent problems.
So it's not just a matter of "dying".
I know athletes that were in top physical shape, got covid, and now can barely walk to their mailbox 1/10th of a mile from the front door. And they don't know how long that will last.
We also do not know ENOUGH about the long term deficits / effects on the human body yet.
The idea some put forth about "oh people get this all the time and recover" is therefore not the whole picture. Just because you don't end up in a hospital, intubated, doesn't mean anything because we just don't know.
Many people who get covid do not die, but they have lingering and possibly permanent problems.
So it's not just a matter of "dying".
I know athletes that were in top physical shape, got covid, and now can barely walk to their mailbox 1/10th of a mile from the front door. And they don't know how long that will last.
We also do not know ENOUGH about the long term deficits / effects on the human body yet.
The idea some put forth about "oh people get this all the time and recover" is therefore not the whole picture. Just because you don't end up in a hospital, intubated, doesn't mean anything because we just don't know.
I know athletes that were in top physical shape, got covid, and now can barely walk to their mailbox 1/10th of a mile from the front door. And they don't know how long that will last.
The pillar of Blue liberal wokeness, California, is seeing massive spikes in CV19.
Comrade Newsom is going to be shutting things back down again.
So much for that Red state argument.
Viruses don't know if they are rising in a blue or red state. This is a highly contagious one though.
You can open or not open, but if your citizens are not practicing the suggested CDC requirements, (masks, social distancing, hand washing, etc.) then it has capability to spread.
Sometimes its better to ask the right questions, in order to get the right answer.
Anyone who makes this into a poltiical football, I just usually ignore.
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