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The article points back to a principle that other countries such as Germany and South Korea have picked up on but the U.S. still hasn't and that is testing, testing, testing. We cannot reopen the economy unless everyone is confident they are in control of their own well being and that requires for everyone to be tested for the coronavirus. There are over 6 million people in my home state of Massachusetts. That means there has got to be at least 6 million tests readily available with a steady production for back order. Not that everyone ought to be tested at once, but test one group at a time, isolate those that test positive as the article suggests, and allow those who did not test positive to return to work. Until we meet that threshold, we will never achieve the goal of reopening the economy anytime soon.
There is hardly any similarity between what South Korea is doing and what Germany is doing. South Korea uses every possible means of surveillance, and has imposed serious life changing fines and jail time for violators, while also having zero land borders to speak of. They also were pre-disposed to respond to these things due to recent (in mind) previous similar situations.
Germany is just now considering such tracking - and it's meeting heavy resistance.
The only positive result of Germany's immense testing (so far) is that it makes their overall death total percent closer to what the "real" number is, 1% or less...but it has done little to stop the dying. They still have a hefty (and growing) number of dead - unlike South Korea.
Testing results for determining whether you have covid or not just tells you what your status is that day. You could become positive a day later by being exposed to someone.
Antibody testing is the better way to go, BUT we really aren't sure yet if having antibodies gives you immunity from getting the disease again.
This virus behaves different than other ones, and we are still in the learning curve with it.
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in USA, with a significant% of people who won't believe in the science/mathematics and want opening of the economy;
No, you can not do both without more and reliable testing/screening, effective cure, or vaccination.
You can try.
Testing results for determining whether you have covid or not just tells you what your status is that day. You could become positive a day later by being exposed to someone.
Antibody testing is the better way to go, BUT we really aren't sure yet if having antibodies gives you immunity from getting the disease again.
This virus behaves different than other ones, and we are still in the learning curve with it.
Serologies are the only sensible way froward. Most likely with antibodies you will be protected for a good amount of time. And by then we should have better covid 19 treatments and a useful vaccine.
Of course no guarantees, and no doubt we'll encounter outliers. But we have to start somewhere.
There is hardly any similarity between what South Korea is doing and what Germany is doing. South Korea uses every possible means of surveillance, and has imposed serious life changing fines and jail time for violators, while also having zero land borders to speak of. They also were pre-disposed to respond to these things due to recent (in mind) previous similar situations.
Germany is just now considering such tracking - and it's meeting heavy resistance.
The only positive result of Germany's immense testing (so far) is that it makes their overall death total percent closer to what the "real" number is, 1% or less...but it has done little to stop the dying. They still have a hefty (and growing) number of dead - unlike South Korea.
Exactly. We are the 3rd most populous nation on earth behind China and India. That alone is massively challenging for the 'test everyone' suggestion.
Even if we're able to achieve that, monitoring is an essential follow up action to testing. How are we going to do that and who is going to do that? More importantly, would Americans sign-off on this heavy surveillance way of monitoring you 24/7? South Korea is putting ankle bracelets to quarantine violators. I doubt this will go over well in the US.
Exactly. We are the 3rd most populous nation on earth behind China and India. That alone is massively challenging for the 'test everyone' suggestion.
Even if we're able to achieve that, monitoring is an essential follow up action to testing. How are we going to do that and who is going to do that? More importantly, would Americans sign-off on this heavy surveillance way of monitoring you 24/7? South Korea is putting ankle bracelets to quarantine violators. I doubt this will go over well in the US.
Why not? Americans accept and tolerate a GREAT deal of spying and secret data collection on the public already...why would this be the tipping point? Look at how the American people responded when Snowden tried to warn them of what the Govt was doing...THEY DIDNT CARE!!! (The 'American people' are NOT the patriotic group they were at one time anymore).
Especially since this would be in their best interest, and in the interest of their families health and safety...I think majority of Americans would accept it with open arms.
Why not? Americans accept and tolerate a GREAT deal of spying and secret data collection on the public already...why would this be the tipping point? Look at how the American people responded when Snowden tried to warn them of what the Govt was doing...THEY DIDNT CARE!!! (The 'American people' are NOT the patriotic group they were at one time anymore).
Especially since this would be in their best interest, and in the interest of their families health and safety...I think majority of Americans would accept it with open arms.
I really don't think when someone tests positive, they will hand their cell phones over to the government. South Korea tracked every place a positive person went to. The government checked a positive person's financial records to track their shopping.
The population of the USA is 328.2 million. This is a huge number of people to test and retest.
What happens if one person in a family of four is positive. There is really no way to isolate the remaining family members in most houses or apartments. The government would have test the remaining family members of most daily.
If a single people is living alone, about 28% of the USA total population, testing weekly might work. They could not be in the service industries - supermarkets, hospitals, transport workers who have a higher chance of becoming ill.
Quote:
The key, says Romer, is repeatedly testing everyone without symptoms to identify who is infected. (People with symptoms should just be assumed to have covid-19 and treated accordingly.) All those who test positive should isolate themselves; those who test negative can return to work, traveling, and socializing, but they should be tested every two weeks or so. If you’re negative, you might have a card saying so that allows you to get on an airplane or freely enter a restaurant.
The government would have factor in the cost of the test and the cost to administrate it. Would it be worth it?
If we don't solve the health crisis, it doesn't make much sense to open the economy. Doing so will mean more sickness, and more deaths, and a stuttering economy.
If it were me, I would want to make sure that the virus was under control, and then open the economy. It will be a long time coming, but it is the safe and more sure approach.
Morgan Stanley had a reasonable time line this morning: Likely health care workers can be tested and go back to work with proper protection reasonably soon. Then, toward July others who have been tested can return to work on a limited basis. Probably not public/retail type jobs, but settings where everyone can be tested be known to be safe., Think manufacturing environment, for example.
By September many others can be tested and they too will go back to work. In November and December the second coming of the virus will be apparent, but beyond that we will have a vaccine and more reliable testing such that in 2021 we can begin to get back to normal..
Can we "rush" the schedule? Sure. But it brings with it a delay in opening more businesses and getting back to normal.. Such is the life of a rampant disease. We either pay now, however bad that is, or we pay later in a more expensive toll both economically and with regard to death/sickness.
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