Beyond Oil -- Renewable Electric Future -- Economic Aspects

[Philip T]

Originally Posted by gamboolman

I have been working in the Oilpatch for 42 year now. Oil and Hydrocarbons are not going anywhere anytime soon.

Having said that, I do support research and developing viable alternative energy sources.

But in the mean time, oil and hydrocarbons are not going to be replaced for a long time....

There is ~6,000 items that have hydrocarbons as a component for them that we all use and depend upon. Here is a good link to take a look see at on this....

https://www.ranken-energy.com/index....rom-petroleum/

Been around about that long, too . . . .

But things have changed.

For example, do you understand how outdated the picture / meme you have posted is?

Say we had a picture of a horse and plow and said -- 1000 years of progress . . . .

It is getting like that. Way Outdated -- which is why this thread . . . for the Macro Economic aspects of what was, what is, and where things are going.

Try some "Critical Thinking" Skills? which is just the ability to ask if this (or that) is true?

Take the claim that "only 46% of Oil goes to Gasoline" Inferring Motor Fuels -- What about Diesel? We already know this presentation is nonsense because we can check either the EIA, or Livermore Labs, and see that over 70% of US Oil goes to Transportation. Means if Transportation shifts . . . most of Oil is wiped out. News here is Transportation is shifting.

Plastics -- now Natural Gas. Faster, Cleaner, and Easier that cracking long-chain Oil.

Meds and Pharmco -- already went through this nonsense with EDS up-thread. Using some critical thinking determined that less than 3% of Oil went to Pharmco, and that was only if counted the transportation involved in Meds and Pharmco as NOT part of Transportation (which is already covered).

we can keep going down the list, but you should be able to see you are citing outdated nonsense?

That image was originally sourced from Ranken Energy. They have a more current use chart now (only four years old). It now shows less than 10% of Oil goes to anything other than Internal Combustion Engine use.

https://www.ranken-energy.com/index....rom-petroleum/

================

But back on task and on target -- what do you see as the Macro Economics of Electric Motors replacing Internal Combustion Engines? If any? Oil might just fade away?

[Philip T]

Originally Posted by VitaminB12

Yea..... nat gas is doing more than holding on ....

Have you looked at it?

Gas sourced Electricity Generation is going up in gross numbers, but not as fast by percentages compared to Renewable. Renewable is on a steeper climb. That means they cross-over on both the gross numbers as well as percentages ahead.

What is really happening in Generation is Coal is dying, no new Nukes are coming on-line, while some are being shutdown. Look ahead is only Gas and Renewables, with Renewable passing Gas (hahaha -- passing Gas joke).

Looking ahead was sort of the intended goal of this thread. As well as really intended to be about Oil, per se -- not so much Gas. Not so much about being Masters of History, and erroneously figuring "what was" is what will always be.

Any Economic perspective on that? Thanks

[TechGromit]

Originally Posted by Philip T

Again -- for "baseload" the word you keep using, but does not appear you understand what it means -- is the LOWEST Use Time of the Day -- Overnight Baseload is already massively surplus. Nighttime power is already so surplus, it is Free or Near Free in many places, and Coal (baseload) is bankrupting off-line, and Nukes (also surplus baseload) are being put on Welfare to avoid bankruptcy. No one wants or needs any more baseload. We would be better off with a lot less.

Not sure what you mean by "Baseload is already massively surplus". Your correct, during the day more power is generated that can be used, but just because I make a Billion Gigawatts of power during the day doesn't mean I'll be able to use that surplus at night. Electricity generated is used almost instantly after it's produced, your excess capacity during the day just disappears if it's not used. Once your solar panels stop producing energy, no power.

Yes, if you set up a world wide electrical grid, where when it's night in the United States, excess power generated in China can be sent to United States and via versa, but we are not even close to this dream. Not to mention without super conductors, you'll lose a good amount of electricity transmission it that far. About 5% to 6% of the electricity generated is lost in the transmission of electrical power. Roughly 2% is lost transmitting it several hundred miles and rest at the distribution level. I'm sure the energy loss would scale up considerably transmitting it 8 thousand miles or more. I'm guessing 30 to 40%, but it's just a guess, I don't have anything to back that up. The infrastructure alone would be a massive undertaking. Enough power lines would have to be run around the globe to support the energy demands of the other side. Places like Alaska that are currently enjoying 20 hour day light right now could help, but would be a disadvantage when they have 20 hours night, not a reliable source of power all year round.

Also the demand at night isn't as low as you think it is. It's about a 1/3 more during the day than at night, but it varies widely depending on the region and time of the year. Far more energy is required in July then January, more in the summer in the South then the North.

Originally Posted by Philip T

Zero $ per Barrel Oil seems to come out to about $1 or $2 or more per gallon for Motor Fuel?

Even at Zero dollars a barrel or negative $ per barrel doesn't mean it's free. There's refining costs, taxes, shipping, retail costs. New York taxes are 45 cent a gallon alone.

[VitaminB12]

Originally Posted by Philip T

Have you looked at it?

Gas sourced Electricity Generation is going up in gross numbers, but not as fast by percentages compared to Renewable. Renewable is on a steeper climb. That means they cross-over on both the gross numbers as well as percentages ahead.

What is really happening in Generation is Coal is dying, no new Nukes are coming on-line, while some are being shutdown. Look ahead is only Gas and Renewables, with Renewable passing Gas (hahaha -- passing Gas joke).

Coal is dying in large part due to natural gas and renewables. Natural gas will increasingly fill the role of baseload. Battery storage is on the horizon but its still the horizon. Hydro is still the king of renewables in 2020, accounting for half of installed base.

I would bet renewables will overtake non renewables but its still awhile.

Looking ahead was sort of the intended goal of this thread. As well as really intended to be about Oil, per se -- not so much Gas. Not so much about being Masters of History, and erroneously figuring "what was" is what will always be.

Any Economic perspective on that? Thanks

Hard to divorce oil and gas due to how they are drilled and produced. Natural gas will play a vital role in the global energy mix so it seems important to discuss.